Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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johnno
Supercell
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Location: Ascot Vale

Mon Nov 15, 2010 5:55 pm

Not a bad idea sending it to the Catchments the more there the better! Still hovering around 51.3% might go as high as 55-56% (thanks to the North-south pipeline) but will flatline as we go into early December then fall away but the severity or slow decline of how much it falls during the Summer will depend if we get a Wet Summer or not
johnno
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Location: Ascot Vale

Mon Nov 15, 2010 6:44 pm

LOL @ Channel 9 Livina Nixon saying 609mm has fallen for the Year for Melbourne they obviously don't know yet that BOM added 3mm to the total in September (50 to 53mm) and 10mm was added to Octobers total later (135mm to 145mm) which means the total should be 622mm
droughtbreaker
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Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl

Mon Nov 15, 2010 10:31 pm

Luckily for us we still have mostly northern hemisphere temperate plants in our garden as well as a lot of natives that tolerate wetter and cooler weather, eg. callistemons, grevilleas and some indigenous plants to the central ranges and coastal areas. We were forced to remove some rhododendrons after the Black Saturday drought and heatwaves that were half dead but they have recovered quite well now across the district so perhaps I wish we hadn't now. :roll: Around here things are still growing really well and not too many problems despite the cool and wet weather thanks to the selection of plants that we have that enjoy this sort of late spring weather. We have had some mild to warm days and there still has been a fair bit of sun around on some days.

At the start of the year, thanks to the record breaking summer humidity, some plants got severe fungal attack that eventually killed all the leaves on certain deciduous tress around the district. These trees have bounced back fully this year and the fungus hasn't come back yet so hopefully we will be OK. Roses starting to get black spot though which is a problem and was a huge problem last year as well.

I agree we do need some sustained warm (not hot) and dry weather to at least dry off foliage and surface moisture a bit. I reckon this week we should see a fair bit of that happening with the stronger sun as we head towards the solstice we don't really need high temps for this to happen, just a bit of sunnier weather.

BTW, need to remember the other force we are battling, i.e. locusts, which are potentially the biggest threat to gardens, more than even the worst drought. Personally I think the threat down here, on and south of the ranges, is being overblown, but we can be thankful to an extent for this cool and dank weather because it is what locusts hate most. A week of 25-35C weather right now would be the worst case scenario as the locusts would go mad.
Twister
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Brisbane Qld

Mon Nov 15, 2010 11:00 pm

Thats is going to happen Re locusts they are coming and will be all over the place but we havent had a week or 2 of 30c+ temps yet when we do we will know about it

Much of NSW SA QLD and VIC are covered in locusts but most re billions of them still cant fly due to the cool wet weather, few weeks off heat and they will be fully developed and flying every were they were horrible up here in April and may ate all the golf course bowling greens and parks and everyones lawn sure will be just as bad if not worse come December

Only time will tell
Now Living in Wet QLD
johnno
Supercell
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Location: Ascot Vale

Tue Nov 16, 2010 3:55 pm

Interesting for quite a few runs now GFS wants to give us instability for the weekend especially over the ranges in an Easterly dip trough and colder air aloft if it continues this way the next 48 hours perhaps a new thread could be started
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daviescr
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Location: Warranwood, Vic

Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:22 am

Really heavy drizzle in Mulgrave right now verging on rain, visibility down to less than 1km I would say... :umbrella: Bit of a cool change too, topped out at 19.6c here about 30 minutes ago, now sitting on 16.4 :o

Edit, tending to heavy rain now - think the radar is underestimating slightly!
David
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Location: Endeavour Hills

Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:36 am

Yeah, Radar was underestimating that small band a bit was quite heavy rain for a couple of minutes and still drizzling now as I speak.
Macedonian
Supercell
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Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:50 pm

showery and chilly up here today, just 11C now. we had a little frost yeasterday morning, 3C minimum. cold for mid-november.
droughtbreaker
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Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl

Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:27 pm

2mm here today but the effect it had on the wetness of the ground was as if we had 20mm. Gives an idea of how moist the soil is atm.
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daviescr
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Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:25 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:2mm here today but the effect it had on the wetness of the ground was as if we had 20mm. Gives an idea of how moist the soil is atm.
Andrew, you just reminded me about soil moisture - Just been having a search around, but can't find it right now - but i recall earlier this year someone put up some images of soil moisture levels in Vic (or even Aus).

Can anyone remember where they were from? Would be curious to look at some comparative data from previous years...
Sniper
Supercell
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Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:29 pm

Pretty sure DJ posted a graph re. Soil moisture.
I'm sure if we ask him nicely, he'll post another one soon! ;)
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FuManchu
Cumulus
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Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:57 pm

Geeze! Thursday is looking good for you guys! Hold onto your hats!
Image
droughtbreaker
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Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl

Fri Nov 19, 2010 8:49 pm

I'm very skeptical about the temperatures BOM are forecasting for mid next week. It seems they are going 100% on GFS (and perhaps some of the other models that I haven't looked at) and 0% on EC. EC doesn't look anywhere near as hot as GFS with weaker dynamics in place and much less of a northerly fetch around. I would be more inclined to go with EC at this stage which would indicate high 20s to low 30s rather than 34C.
I_Love_Storms
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Location: Hawthorn

Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:00 pm

GFS are good at two things, storms and heat. I think we will get a 35c day next week.
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Supercellimpact
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Location: North Bendigo

Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:29 pm

Haven't seen the forum so quite with nothing much weather going on. Let's hope next week is better!
Dez
Cumulonimbus
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:17 pm

Hey guys (haven't been posting on this forum for ages). I was just wondering what the weather is going to be like at my location next saturday night? Thanks if you can answer :)
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daviescr
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:42 pm

Hey Dez, It's a long way off, but it's certainly looking like it could be unsettled at the very least. After a week of warm weather, their looks to me to be a lot of moisture around potentially, GFS is progging around about 75 mm for Central areas over thursday - saturday - a nice end to an average month in terms on total rainfall. Certainly a chance of storms over thursday friday, but after that it's anyone's guess right now

Should have a better idea by tuesday/wednesday I reckon
droughtbreaker
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Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl

Sat Nov 20, 2010 3:34 pm

Getting some half decent convection here on the sea breeze boundary. Just a fraction off developing into a shower or two but looks like it probably won't get there. Cooler southerlies just wafting in here now.
Dez
Cumulonimbus
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 3:51 pm

daviescr wrote:Hey Dez, It's a long way off, but it's certainly looking like it could be unsettled at the very least. After a week of warm weather, their looks to me to be a lot of moisture around potentially, GFS is progging around about 75 mm for Central areas over thursday - saturday - a nice end to an average month in terms on total rainfall. Certainly a chance of storms over thursday friday, but after that it's anyone's guess right now

Should have a better idea by tuesday/wednesday I reckon
Okay cheers :) Just having a party outdoors that's been planned for a while and don't want to get drenched :o
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daviescr
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Location: Warranwood, Vic

Mon Nov 22, 2010 10:16 am

Yeah, Dez, probably best to put your plan B into action for sturday...

It really is nuts out and about - yes mozzies and other bugs are not in short supply - was out enjoying the sunset last night and got eaten alive as well as dive-bombed by a couple of monstrously large moths (my absolute worst bug - strike the fear of God into me).

Seasonal allergies are at real highs too - anyone else suffering particularly badly this year? I normally get through the late spring / early summer with a couple of days of bad rhinitis, but this year had been the worst since my teens. Usual antihistamines doing nothing, and feel like death warmed up in the mornings.
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