The 1st round of decent storms of the season looks likely to kick off tonight and tomorrow (Monday Austalian time) for parts of the Southeast.
The US Storm Prediction Centre currently has this region under a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Below are the details of the setup from the SPC. It is a bit unseasonal but not unheard of. Some of the nastiest tornado outbreaks in the past have occurred in winter during an early start to the season:
SPC AC 230031
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
AR...NRN-CNTRL MS...NW AL...WRN/CNTRL TN...SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IND
AND WRN KY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD WITH A RAPID INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE LAST HOUR IN CNTRL AR. THIS IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS BANDED CONVECTION IN CNTRL AR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND SHIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S F RESULTING IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA SWD ACROSS NRN
MS. THIS COMBINED WITH 55 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR FROM AROUND THE MO BOOTHEEL SWD ACROSS
THE MEMPHIS AREA INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS. AS A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS
ORGANIZES...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH A
SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES
COULD PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING FROM WRN TN SWD INTO NCNTRL MS AND
WRN AL WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE LINE OR AT THE SRN
END OF THE LINE. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO
EXIST ALONG MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE SQUALL-LINE AND SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.
OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGES FOR THE 01Z OUTLOOK ARE TO
ADD THUNDER BACK ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN MO ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY AND TO REMOVE THUNDER
ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX.
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for central Chilton and
southeastern Bibb counties until 515 am CST...
At 500 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located 6 miles west of Maplesville... or 16 miles southeast
of Brent... moving east at 45 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Clanton... Jemison... Maplesville... Chilton County motor sports
park... Pooles Crossroads... Thorsby... Union Grove... Stanton...
Campbell and Isabella.
This includes...
Interstate 65 exit numbers 212 through 219...
Storm spotters reporting large tornado on the ground near Center Point and Trussville moving NE at 55 mph; extensive damage near Center Point
They did let the warning expire but this storm is still showing good signs of rotation Jemsison, Clanton, Thorsy will all be affected by this. If I were you guys espically if I lived in Maplesville and Isabella I would go to my place of safety right now!!!
Updated timeline on supercell approaching chilton county.
Lawley by 442am, Stanton by 443am, Maplesville by 444am Billingsley by 451am.
Please if you live in Chilton County I have very good reason to believe a tornado is on the ground doing damage. Radar is giving me a debris ball signiture so take this seriously and seek shelter NOW!!!!!!!!
Ok let me make this confusion proof if you live from Jemsion Southward get underground NOW there is a very great chance that a tornado is on the ground doing damage right now.
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHILTON COUNTY TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHILTON COUNTY MAPLESVILLE GET UNDERGROUND NOW YOU HAVE TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATLEY!!!!!!!
Significant tornado reports are coming in. Mobile homes destroyed and debris clouds reported. We cannot stress enough the seriousness of this situation. Over 1 inch hail reported. If you are in the path of this storm, seek shelter NOW.
LARGE VIOLENT TORNADO APPROACHING MAPLESVILLE SEEK SHELTER IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE IN CHILTON COUNTY
Severe weather over there really is on another level isn't it. Haven't these storms been firing for well over 12 hours now? To be strong enough to still be producing tornadoes at 5am is insane!
There's some pretty active cells cranking away over parts of NE Texas/SE Oklahoma where the SPC has the area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Some of the more severe cells approaching Fort Smith just over the border of Texas in Arkansas. The numerous white pixels are recent lightning strikes, the thin white polygon shapes are the forecast track uncertainty of the flagged cells. Infrared satellite imagery is in the background:
Regional radar imagery with winter radar mode and predictive radar mode turned on:
Forecast radar echoes (composite levels) from the High Res Rapid Refresh Model which generates predicted radar echoes every 15mins with a resolution of 1km and 3km (forgot to add, here's the URL: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;):
Meso, Ken and pete and others that follow the US storms/tornado
On the TV Melbourne news this morning 2nd March 2012..
4 US states affected by severe tornadoes . sad stories of loss of family members
The US weather bureau indicating more tonight for those that follow the developments
The US Weather bureau also stating that for this time of a year there has been an increase of 50% more tornadoes atm... and this not a common occurrence for late winter
I believe this is something to do with cold anomalies to the west and warm anomalies to the east over the US mainland?
GEEZ!!Have a look at some of these pictures last day of winter ..feb 29th! 2012 tornadoes
a gallery of 15 photos here.. mmm! Think l'd rather floods than tornadoes. I think? http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/g ... 105?page=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Just amazing the amount of destruction over there year after year from tornadoes. 39 dead and an EF4 from this latest system and the season is as young as you can get. Could be on par with last year if these early signs are anything to go by.
The power of them is just amazing, cars chucked around like toys, like we have seen it in the movies but to think it happens like that. Can they not build things stronger each time, do they have building standards..