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INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

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crikey
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INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN
source
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indi ... LATEST.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Image



------------------------------------------------
January 2012
On the world sat pic you can see two ( twins) suspect cyclones in the Indian ocean ( s/west ).. Double whammy!

This cyclone and severe weather monitoring site expects both of these to reach a severe category
http://severe.worldweather.org/tc/swi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just zooming in and..
Quite a nice snap of the pair and they haven't even got names yet..!

Image
Last edited by crikey on Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by Ken »

Models are also hinting at the possible formation of a tropical low or cyclone in the eastern Indian Ocean off northwest Australia or around the Gulf (more likely to be the former) later next week with the next monsoon burst. Something worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by Rivergirl »

What's the latest on this now crikey and Ken. Also johnno was talking about a huge cyclone for WA in another thread. Is this the same. Thanks, really enjoy reading your posts. I am learning more :)
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

Cyclone FUNSO JAN 2012 is the cyclone on the east coast of Africa and looks to be making landfall now as a cyclone according to the sat pic'
I will leave this satellite picture here below so that you can view the current Indian ocean picture ( hot-linked) at any time.
The twin they called cyclone ETHEL which has degraded for now as you can see on the current sat pic'
There should be some news reports on this landfall you would think soon ? Neat Mozambique..l think??

For the predicted cyclone off n/west WA Robyn , will drop you a note in the WA wet season thread as the BOM 4 day synoptic has this cyclone emerging in the coming days as ken and johnno have suggested



CURRENT TRACKING OF FUNSO
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... sh0812.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Last edited by crikey on Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks crikey. I have a good friend that lives in Derby WA so keeping an eye on it for her. I was over there in August
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

There is a warning out for the high probability of a cyclone forming in the Indian ocean. FEB 2012
If you look at the sat' pic' 2 posts above you can see the cyclone starting to take shape
Here is the 'low down' from
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 812web.txt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


WTXS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 69.9E TO 15.8S 60.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 69.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 67.0E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC, WITH DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. A RECENT 082123Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE BANDING OBSERVED IN
IR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING IR SATELLITE SIGNATURE, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092330Z.//
NNNN
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

The tropical low in the Indian ocean has developed into a cyclone and has been named . ( 10th FEB 2012)

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
In 3 days time the max gusts are expected to get to 125 knots!!
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.3S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 212web.txt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

close up image here
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 30sair.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tracking posted below.
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

Something brewing in the Indian ocean?
MON 27th Feb 2012 CMC forecast


I believe the MJO is expected in the N/west of Australia in March 2012

Maybe march is going to be an interesting month for rainfall?

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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

The 14th named tropical storm is called IRINA
Looks like the west coast of Africa has had the most cyclone activity for the 2012 season to date. Another formed near Madagascar
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Image of the cyclone found here
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indi ... LATEST.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Extracts from report
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S...... IRINA,
..... LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TC
IRINA WILL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE, JUST NORTH OF
MAPUTO.
THE TC WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96

an interesting picture below snapped 2nd march 2012
in the equatorial Indian ocean as what looks like a stream or train of tropical storms / potential TC's appears to be 'chooffing' for the west coast of Africa

Image

This map indicates the warm waters that assist in the formation of cyclogenesis
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: INDIAN OCEAN CYLONES

Post by crikey »

Well out of the new nest of potential tropical storms from the post above . Only one to date has emerged as a TC
The model CMC a few posts above ,indicated this TC would form in the middle of Indian ocean but saw it arriving a week earlier than it actually did
Cyclone KOJI
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 30sams.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and coming up soon
Heads up for..
Some forecast models indicating a TS/TC to form off the N/west coast of WA..mid March 2012 with chances of a WA coastline landfall
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