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Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

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Ken
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Ken »

I was about to say, there's also strong probabilities of widespread warm anomalies forecast across most of the Arctic and northern Siberia, just north of the belt of cold anomalies. But as usual, you'll hardly hear about this on the news because the more densely populated areas of Europe, western Russia and eastern Asia will attract all the headlines for cold weather. These warm anomalies have been just about a permanent fixture in this region for some years now.

NAEFS Week 2 temp anomaly probabilities:

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crikey
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by crikey »

An explanation published by NASA of why there is reduced snow cover and higher temp anomalies across much of the US
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sc ... ssingsnow/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What Happened to all the Snow?
Jan. 19, 2012:

Winter seems to have been on hold this year in some parts of the United States. Snowfall has been scarce so far in places that were overwhelmed with the white stuff by the same time last year.

California dog driver Tony Phillips poses with his new sled near Mammoth Mountain. In winter 2011 this spot was covered by several feet of snow; in 2012 it is bare dirt.
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Here's a prime example. "The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in the Sierras of California got more than 200 inches of snow last December," says NASA climatologist Bill Patzert of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "This December they got less than 10 inches."

Temperatures have flip-flopped too. There were 583 new heat records broken in the first five days of January in the US.

"It's 86 degrees in Los Angeles today [Wednesday, January 4th]," says Patzert. "Everyone thinks it's July! In fact, it's warmer today in LA than it was on July 4th last year. And it's been in the 60s and 70 even in the Dakotas lately."

On January 5th in Bismark, North Dakota, it was 62 -- a marked departure from their average 23 degrees for that day.( thats some 39 deg above there mean ??)
It was 66 in Denver, Colorado, where it's usually in the low 40s on that date.

What's going on? Patzert identifies two culprits: La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation.

First of all," he explains, "we are experiencing a La Niña pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This pushes the jet stream and the cold arctic air northward."

"On top of that, this year's Arctic Oscillation has been stronger."

The Arctic Oscillation is a see-sawing pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. When the pressure difference is high, a whirlpool of air forms around the North Pole. Last year, the whirlpool motion was weaker, allowing cold air to escape from the polar regions and head southward to the US.

"This year the whirlpool has been more forceful, corralling the cold air and keeping it nearer the pole. That has reinforced the La Niña impact."

(left) Effects of the positive phase of the arctic oscillation; (right) effects of the negative phase of the arctic oscillation (Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington)
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While the corralling action of the Arctic Oscillation has kept snow away from parts of the contiguous United States, it has brought extra snow to places inside the whirlpool.

"The strong positive AO has kept the Jet Stream north," says Patzert. "Snow-delivering storm tracks are pounding Alaska."

Cordova, a small coastal town about 150 miles east of Anchorage, has been especially hard hit. More than 18 feet of snow has fallen so far this winter. Snow dumps are full, roads have turned into one-lane "snow canyons," and National Guardsmen have been sent in to help residents dig out.

Even heartbroken snow-lovers of the lower 48 don't want that much white stuff. But they'd like some.

"Be patient," advises Patzert. "We haven't gotten to the heart of winter. Hold off on selling the new dogsled. There's plenty of time for snow. It ain't over till the Siberian Huskies sing.

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I have a question re this comment by Partzert
"This year the whirlpool has been more forceful, corralling the cold air and keeping it nearer the pole."

I thought the temperature anomalies in the arctic were warmer than the mean temp ? or is he referring to the upper air only?


In the diagrams above Partzert does not indicate the extreme cold flow occurring over Europe this winter ??
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