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ARTIC SEA ICE

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crikey
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ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by crikey »

ARTIC SEA ICE SHRINKS TO HISTORIC LOW

A report tabled in world news Herald Sun . VIC Australia.. September 12th 2011

Satellite observations of Arctic sea ice extent began in 1972.
39 years ago.
On sept 8th the extent of the sea ice was 4.240million sq Kilometers
This is a new historic minimum the article says
The previous record set was 2007
Retreating summer sea ice is 50% smaller in area than 4 decades ago :o
Temperatures in the Artic region have risen more than twice as fast as the global average over the last century.

It fascinates me that the Antarctic is not receding anywhere near as fast as the Arctic.
Something to do with greater land mass that is in Northern hemisphere and no doubt higher population density coupled with substantially higher emissions in the Northern hemisphere.
I find it interesting also ,that while many nations are preparing for global warming some countries like Ireland are preparing for a solar minimum and long term forecasting for this winter for Ireland is for
a record breaking cold winter.
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Rivergirl
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Rivergirl »

It's a crazy world crikey! I saw a documentary a few months back on National Geo channel all about the Arctic. It was unbelievable to hear them talking about the things you posted. While I was in the Antarctic I attended a lot of lectures about the problems there. Thanks for the figures
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crikey
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by crikey »

My concern is the small number of years of sampling in this study.posted below and reported in breaking news tonight * December 02, 2011 9:37PM
http://www.news.com.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Keep in mind official record keeping commenced in 1979( only 32 years ago) and the baseline mean is from 1981 to 2010. So every year we measure the ice levels it is compared to this baseline.

and 1979 was the lowest recorded level and the first year of recording official ice records in this short history of recording.
So in 32 years of record taking we have not gone below the 1979 level? the first year of official record keeping.
So the ice has increased and decreased since 1979
If there was a strong linear trend maybe the record minimum should have been broken?
Also why title the article "Record setting" when in fact it was not a record but came in second to 1979.
"The minimum area of sea ice recorded this year, in September 2011, was the second lowest since 1979."

The media will have to do a better job in reporting to convince many.. and where can you read this study? and what group of scientists?. Where was the research published? etc. Who funded the research.?

See this sort of reporting in the weather news at times ,as well. ( records broken !~! records falling!@1 Look at the data and only a small sample size in some cases. Can't stand sensational media when it comes to science. No wonder people are confused and uncertain))


'Record-setting' change in warming Arctic

* December 02, 2011 9:37PM

AN international team of 121 scientists has found "record-setting" change in the Arctic linked to global warming, including melting ice, warming waters and changing wind patterns.

The 2011 Arctic Report Card, compiled by scientists from 14 countries, "shows that record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system.

"Given the projection of continued global warming, it is very likely that major Arctic changes will continue in years to come, with increasing climatic, biological and social impacts," the report said.

The authors of the annual report - first released in 2006 - said there is now sufficient data to indicate a "persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a warmer, fresher upper ocean".

Average temperatures over much of the Arctic have risen some 1.5 degrees C from a 1981-2010 baseline, and the minimum area of sea ice recorded this year, in September 2011, was the second lowest since 1979.

The "profound and continuing" changes have had an uneven impact on Arctic wildlife, threatening the icy habitats of polar bears and walruses but giving whales greater access to northern feeding areas, the report said.

The warming has also caused new vegetation to sprout in many areas, and has led to a 20 per cent increase in phytoplankton, microscopic organisms that are the basis of the oceanic food chain.

The report also found that changes in Arctic winter wind patterns first detected in 2010 have continued.( what in to 2011..One year sample .Please!! :? )

"The Arctic region continues to warm, with less sea ice and greater green vegetation," said Monica Medina, of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

"Reports like this one help us to prepare for increasing demands on Arctic resources so that better decisions can be made about how to manage and protect these more valuable and increasingly available resources."

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/re ... z1LtMIr4dU" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Lily »

So hang on. All of this talk about the ice cap receding that we hear is based on thirty odd years of records? Not a couple of hundred, fifty even? Just thirty.
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Geoff »

To keep things in perspective, I always like to show people these US Naval Submarine images from March1959 and August1962, USS Skate and USS Seadragon in open water at the North Pole, can you imagine the outcry if this was 2011?...
uss-skate-open-water.jpg
uss-skate-open-water.jpg (18.02 KiB) Viewed 10428 times
seadragon-and-skate-north-pole-1962.jpg
seadragon-and-skate-north-pole-1962.jpg (23.57 KiB) Viewed 10428 times
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
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crikey
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by crikey »

Lily. I have not really followed the Arctic ice extent debate for long at all ,but from the few news reports l have read it would seem official records are not that old as you say.
l get annoyed when news reports vary..on the post l did above for arctic ice records, the news article reported the record low for ice extent on the arctic was in 1979
and the graph below indicates it was in 2007, consistent with the first article l posted? and the first post of this thread says the lowest minimum was reached in sept 2011 :? ( maybe that was a record for September.?..39 years of data recording)
Maybe just some slack media reporting. I don't know?
Anyway according to National Snow and Ice Data Center , whose site looks quite official. The record lowest ice extent recorded in the ARCTIC since 1979 was 2007
However the 32 year trend is definitely down and currently falling at
Figure 3. Monthly October ice extent for 1979 to 2011 shows.... a decline of 6.6% per decade.
Image

At that rate there would be no Artic ice in the month of October in the ARCTIC in 15 decades or 150 years.
Of course every year it will be interesting to see if this rate of decline continues and of course if this has happened before in the earths history.
Trying to separate mankinds influence and natural variation is controversial.
Anyway l have started to take an interest
Thanks for the photos geoff. Do you have the link / source of those photos to that or any other historical anecdotal info?
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center ( this link is really good and presents the Arctic ice extent like the weather historical data.It gives anomalies and monthly reports .. Easy to read and well laid out) :P
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Geoff »

Crikey, those pics are available from a few different sources, this one is probably the best known to start with...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/i ... -so-thick/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Cheers, Geoff.
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Lily »

crikey » Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:47 pm wrote:
crikey wrote: Maybe just some slack media reporting. I don't know?
Aha! Slack media reporting? Or a worldwide government conspiracy?

Anyway, I guess that debate's best suited to the Climate Board and not in General :P
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Anthony Violi
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by Anthony Violi »

Um....Arctic ice is at record levels for this time of years since 1979.

Multi year ice has increased by 50% since 2008.

Check this out.

http://www.real-science.com/hiding-incline-arctic-ice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And as far the temps go in the Arctic, we have been over this many times in climate section. Temps in the Arctic are made up, they take the temps from 1200kms away, and extrapolate a figure they think the Arctic is.

Image

Thats all the area in black with no data!

Image

Which is why they can get away with stuff like this...they should all be jailed, every single one of them.
http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

avweatherforecasts.com
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crikey
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Re: ARTIC SEA ICE

Post by crikey »

Yeah I can see the red line representing 2011
It would be nice though to see the ice extent exceed the mean as plotted byb the black line ( a positive anomaly)( 1979 -2006 monthly mean) for a reasonable period of time or even now and again. Some of the graphs l have seen indicate sea ice extent remaining persistently below the mean .
Maybe this year is the year?
Image
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