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AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Gordon »

Geoff the worrying thing is that some water supply managers etc. make important judgements - like how much flood mitigation airspace to leave in storages - based on these outlooks. People are so desperate for someone or something 'official' to take responsiblity for their decisions, they will cling to a proven bad forecasting system over no forecast. Pathetic really.

The forecasts should not be published until the independently assessed succcess rate becomes statistically significant; i.e., signficantly better than you would get through pure chance.
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Anthony Violi
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

My new forecast is out for the spring, available on the front page or just go here.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... ring-2012/
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

Hey Anth, got a question for ya mate if the Pacific is de coupled from the atmosphere at the moment can you explain why the 30 day SOI is -10?
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

Because it hasnt made up its mind yet, dailys have been positive 8 out of the last 10 days, and in the next 7 days we will lose 7 big negative figures from the start of August bringing the figure up quite a bit.

The 90 day will also jump, its probably more relevant, its currently -6.55 and rising.

May was -2.4, June was -10 and july was +0.1,so its all over the shop which indicates neutral IMO.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Expect a fairly big dip in the Nino 3.4 index in the next few weeks too.

But this is the story right here, Easterly trades are strengthening and with no MJO until late Sept the cooling will get stronger.

Image

Hardly any heat left along the equator. I am hard pressed to find where it may come from, even though the equator subsurface is warm, its a small area and is being railroaded atm. Its very much a neutral scenario temps are neither very warm or cold, ablend of both but have defintitely colder since last month, an El nino should have been well in the pipeline by september.

Image

And in a few weeks the indian will come alive, along with the coral sea, which may coincide with the pacific getting a little cooler.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Geoff »

Good work AV, going to be an interesting one this year, that's for sure. I suspect all eyes will need to be on the Indian rather than the Pacific this year.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

The Indian Ocean looks very +ve IOD to me with that cold pool South of Java. Is there a pool of warm water at the sub-surface that's going to break through in the next month or two?
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Yes most likely to see that water recover from the SW over the coming month. Last year it was far worse at this time of year. And we know what happened next...

It is all very seasonal and I suspect with the near record heat up there and a relax in the easterly winds, things will warm markedly in the next week and then as easterly winds develop across the region over the weekend, that warming will be tempered, but the recovery is on.

El Nino is non issue now, many different media and scientific orginsations including our very own BoM have suggested it coming on strong, and the best it can do is neutral. So this year will most likely be a neutral year and from there, most members are now fluctuating from cold neutral to La Nina some time next year. Be interesting to see as some have suggested super El Nino. Not so sure about that....

BTW if it remains neutral in ENSO with a neutral to negative IOD, Victoria tends to get rainfall deciles from 8-10 statewide, so in some respects it is a better outcome.

In my opinion, get your boats ready, enjoy the dryish phase because it ain't lasting long.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

From WZ and Elders: FWIW - Melbourne has rainfall stated as a high chance everyday for the next 28 days.

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 September to 6 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 23 September to 27 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 September to 19 September, 19 September to 23 September, and 23 September to 27 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 September to 5 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 9 September to 13 September.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

"Six main troughs" - well that goes a fair way to explain why we've been getting such regular and frequent cold fronts lately!

Then again, the SAM is a bit positive atm, so probably more the "clipper" type fronts for a while, and a very dry NSW unless a NEly appears out of nowhere.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

And perhaps it won't be so dry this September afterall?!? :)

If some of those fronts can tap into moisture extending from the Central Indian Ocean it could be a good month and get spring off to a flying start.

That would be great for the state, catchments and the ski fields. Might have the season run into October!!
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by crikey »

Great wordpress blog AV. Nicely laid out. !!
http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... ring-2012/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I admire your enthusiasm.. Good on you.
Forecasting is not for the faint hearted .

From your page.I noticed there is one or two models as outliers from the main bunch that agree with you. a very weak La nina scenario.

------------------------------

I was reading WZnews this evening and came across some climate data
which said the latest run of below freezing temps this winter in Canberra 2012 was significant.. at 48 days
but 1982 and 1997 beat the 2012 run of sub freezing days

quote
Canberra's winter now the frostiest in 15 years
Brett Dutschke, Tuesday August 28, 2012 - 13:24 EST
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canb ... ears/22324" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Canberra chilled to minus 5.6 degrees this morning, the 48th freezing morning this winter, making it the frostiest winter in 15 years.

Forty-eight mornings with the temperature getting at least as low as zero degrees is five more than in winter last year and five more than average.

The last time there were more than 48 winter mornings this cold was in 1997, when there were 61. The winter record is 65 days, set in 1982.

----
A tentative correlation?
I just thought that was a co-incidence
as 1997 and 1982 were both pre -strong El Nino events.
so will 2012 follow the pattern ..???.
Might just test this simple algorithm out. For a bit of unconventional fun..

If ..
Canberra has a long run of >= 48 below freezing minimums ( as per 1997,1982, 2012)
then
..strong El Nino to come..

However .. i think the 1997 strong El Nino had very little effect on reducing OZ rainfall?
But El Nino 's are good at raising the temp anomalies l believe?

From what l gather. The driest time of a strong El Nino in OZ' is spring and then the drying effect wanes into summer with increasing rainfall.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

Thanks Crikey...it's a work in progress and I will get more time in the future as it evolves, it's just the beginning.

As for the temps, I think you need to look at RH. The two years you mentioned were most likely less humid. Which is concurrent with el ninos.

Yes El ninos raise global temps, and La Nina's drop them. The reason I'm bullish on cool neutral is because Models do not factor in things like the Cold PDO, there has never been a strong El Niño in a Cold PDO, because the cold waters move south from the Bering Sea, down the Canadian coast into the basin and counter acts the warmth under the surface. Which is what is happening now, the warmth that came on in June was quickly diminished as cooling began to feed into the undercurrents. The models only see subsurface warming and assume we should have a warm episode. However upper heat content is slowly falling globally. Once the AMO goes cold at the end of the decade temps will really drop off and models will need to be reconfigured or they will be wrong mie often, like right now for example.

The reduction in rainfall is a few factors, obviously less humidity lf the winds are not easterly on the coast. ATM this is not the case. However the highs are filtering very cold air up through the country and into the ridge and up through WA into the Indian. And the result is the very dry air and cold water of the NW coast. This will change in the coming weeks as we have already transitioned into Spring and have a lot of heat over the NT atm.

Next month will tell where it's at, but to summarize we cannot have a strong El Nino when the PDO is cold. That being said, I expect if we have another La Nina next year it will also be a double dip, then you would expect a response of an El Niño after that.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Going by history I would agree with AV on this one. Definitely a double dip if we go La Nina. I think we will be in those conditions by March next year.

The heat content is building over the NT again this week so SSTs are likely to recover much more rapidly off the NW Coast of Australia and this could send the IOD in to negative territory towards the end of spring, which would enhance rainfall substantially.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

It is possible to have moderate El Ninos with associated low rainfall in a cold PDO phase. Examples like 1957, 1965, and 1972 come to mind. (1965 is particularly interesting in that the Eastern seaboard had several significant cold outbreaks that winter)

As for 2013 - I think it will settle into a neutral ENSO, even cool neutral.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Yeah Strato I tend to agree - with the basin moving into La Nina watch by year end I would think for the following months of 2013.

The SSTs in the basin took another dive today and now the hotspot is at 1.8 but it is so very tiny compared to the start of the month. Should see all indicies on the retreat towards deep neutral and trending colder. I guess the next watch is the IOD and the impact it will have on us this coming spring and summer. Warming rapidly still from the SW.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

Funny you mention that strato, even this event the MEI is indicative of a weak to moderate event, yet its still neutral.

We will need to go through the next 20 years to observe, all we have to go off is rainfall figures really.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

Sorry guys looks like your typical +IOD now in full swing and I don't expect these colder than normal anomalies to be eroded until at least late October or November North and NW of Australia (which is the normal time for the IOD to do this) so looking dry to me away from the Victorian coast for at least another 2 more months. Our saving grace South of the ranges has been the fact we haven't had blocking highs otherwise we will be similar to other areas where its been dry. I wouldn't worry about next Year just yet some models can't even get things right 2-3 months out I'm sure that JAMSTEC had locked in a Negative IOD since the start of the Year for Winter and Spring this Year and CFS had 500mm for us for the next 3 months a couple of months ago lol. I'm with Strato more likely to be Neutral Next Year the more El Nino we go this Year the more likely we will go La Nina next Year the more close to Neutral we stay rest of this Year the more likely it will stay Neutral next Year thats my experience of studying ENSO over the Years. Cheers.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

Also remember the IOD season only has a major effect on us in Winter and Spring it has very little to no effect through Summer and most of Autumn so basically the IOD season is from May-June to November.
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Well 2010 was one out of the box then...
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Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

johnno » Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:45 pm wrote:
johnno wrote:Sorry guys looks like your typical +IOD now in full swing and I don't expect these colder than normal anomalies to be eroded until at least late October or November North and NW of Australia (which is the normal time for the IOD to do this) so looking dry to me away from the Victorian coast for at least another 2 more months. Our saving grace South of the ranges has been the fact we haven't had blocking highs otherwise we will be similar to other areas where its been dry. I wouldn't worry about next Year just yet some models can't even get things right 2-3 months out I'm sure that JAMSTEC had locked in a Negative IOD since the start of the Year for Winter and Spring this Year and CFS had 500mm for us for the next 3 months a couple of months ago lol. I'm with Strato more likely to be Neutral Next Year the more El Nino we go this Year the more likely we will go La Nina next Year the more close to Neutral we stay rest of this Year the more likely it will stay Neutral next Year thats my experience of studying ENSO over the Years. Cheers.
The waters NW of Australia are seasonally affected by the easterly winds, you have too look deeper into the ocean to get a guide as to how they are responding to the relaxing of the easterly winds over the Top End. They have a long run of easterly winds which have just broken down up there over the past few days with record temps. I suggest the same as before, conditions improving over the coming months and most of us on here agree that the IO will recover back to neutral during spring. I think personally it will tend to heat up further over summer and the impact of that will be stronger convection in the monsoon and this will filter down into our summer. We have seen it since 2009 and in any which the ENSO season has been, it has been rather good for us.

ENSO has little pull on our weather anyhow, as you can see across Australia it is really the Indian Ocean that rules the roost.
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