Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Archived climatology topics are located here.
User avatar
Karl Lijnders
Tornadic Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 5771
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:17 pm
Location: Knoxfield, Victoria

AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Signs of a weakening warming trend in the Pacific, coupled with an IOD that is coming into favor for increased rainfall, high levels of moisture across the southern ocean and a SAM that has been quite aggressive means we could be in for a bit of a whack this spring across the country.

Noticing the change into early spring in some of the charting so keep watching that. Could be something huge brewing as we get into the last week in July.

JAMSTEC does have a colder trend into the last week of July and CFS does want to push heavy rainfall across the state.

Here is the latest outlook with Anthony Violi ---------------------------> http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... tlook.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Former Owner - The Australian Weather Forum. Email me anytime - weatherman1000@hotmail.com
User avatar
Anthony Violi
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2652
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:03 pm
Location: Lilydale
Contact:

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

There is a fight going between the two, the SAM was negative and jumped positive in the last few days.

What is amazing is that spring like patterns are already emerging. In particular, the Top End is intriguing to say the least.

The SOI is now positive for the last week, there is decent disturbance in the trough in the Solomons and the trough has sunk a fair way south.

Never seen a disturbance in the monsoon trough in July so thats new one. And even more strange is it only this part of the equator where the trough has dipped so far south. check out this amazing graphic of GFS, its shows the monsoon along the equator in a straight line from Africa nd South America, then look at our region.

Image

As for Enso, still looking neutral to cool, there is too much cold water moving down from the Bering Sea. This coupled with Easterlies still strong will ensure plenty of weather on the QLD coast the next months or so. Next MJO could spawn another westerly wind burst in a few weeks and given how far south the trough is it may warm a little before retreating to cool again. However, i cant see it.

Feel free to add to the discussion, but it s looking like another wet and active year again with high humidity.
http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

avweatherforecasts.com
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

Yeah sorry guys kept my opinions to myself more lately especially in here but this has been on my mind for a while and here it is.. Going by the signs and have to disagree with ya there Anthony to me looks like the next 3-4 months we are going to see average rains at best so below average to average rainfall the more likely scenario for me for Victoria as a whole. The IOD has gone Positive and will stay Positive mate also the IOD effects is from May to November, the IOD becomes irrelevant during the wet season once the Monsoon trough appears and to be honest I can't see that Colder than normal ssts anomalies North and NW of Australia becoming warmer than normal anytime soon (next month or 2) infact I looked at a Unisy Map I saved onto my comp 2 weeks ago compared to now and if anything they have strenghened and spread further West towards Southern Sumatra. EL Nino does look sick but I definetly can't see us go back into La Nina again not this Year perhaps next Year mate, best case scenario ENSO may go back to Neutral next month or two but slightly warm Neutral anyway thats my 2c always value your opinions Anthony you know that mate but yeah disagree with you on the IOD scenario. Cheers.
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

If the Coral sea stays warm we will get away with some handy rainfall events over the next month or 2 but if that becomes cool alongside with Northern and NW OZ then I will have to definetly say a drier period of weather is coming up the coming months. The SAM is all over the place & I am still waiting for a decent cold outbreak with snow below 700 metres yet to see this Year or the past few Years, last decent cold outbreak with snow below 500 metres was July 2008 I think.
User avatar
Anthony Violi
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2652
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:03 pm
Location: Lilydale
Contact:

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

Time will tell Johnno, it will either be right or wrong. That's my forceast, though I do think I will change temps in Qld to average or slightly above, given I expect plenty of rain in the next 3 months through that area.

Also a concern is that given I did the forecast a few weeks ago, patterns are already changing rapidly as we saw this week.

Next 4 weeks will be critical on both sides to see how it pans out..
http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

avweatherforecasts.com
User avatar
Karl Lijnders
Tornadic Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 5771
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:17 pm
Location: Knoxfield, Victoria

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Karl Lijnders »

I cannot help but think the IOD will rule this spring and summer again, regardless of El Nino or La Nina which I think bears little impact down here IMO.

Suspect Anthony will be closest to the pin at this time, but a lot has to take place soon.

SSTs off the NW of Australia will start to warm as the sun makes a comeback into the southern hemisphere.
Former Owner - The Australian Weather Forum. Email me anytime - weatherman1000@hotmail.com
n
nafets
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1324
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 6:10 pm
Location: Ascot vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by nafets »

Hey guys, I've been reading heaps in the climatology section and all your predictions, I was wondering if you can chuck me a link to SST , IOD? Thanks
Go the bombersss!
User avatar
apocalypse
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 761
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:17 pm
Location: Wagga Wagga, NSW 189m asl

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by apocalypse »

Nafets, you can find the SST & SST anomaly charts here at Weatherzone, and the Unisys charts here. There are multiple IOD indicies at the Jamstec website, for example, SST anomalies, winds, and the mode index.
These are the ones that I use and there must be others, so feel free to add to the list. Perhaps we should consider making a sites/links thread like in General Weather?
Nathan Morris
2013 Rainfall
Jan - 3.8mm
Feb - 27.0mm
Mar - 0.0mm
YTD - 30.8mm
User avatar
stratospear
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:38 am
Location: Usually Bendigo

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

johnno » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:48 pm wrote:
johnno wrote:If the Coral sea stays warm we will get away with some handy rainfall events over the next month or 2 but if that becomes cool alongside with Northern and NW OZ then I will have to definetly say a drier period of weather is coming up the coming months. The SAM is all over the place & I am still waiting for a decent cold outbreak with snow below 700 metres yet to see this Year or the past few Years, last decent cold outbreak with snow below 500 metres was July 2008 I think.
Regarding the volatility of the SAM/AAO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No wonder our cold fronts atm are weak as! Hopefully August is more wintry.
User avatar
Anthony Violi
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2652
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:03 pm
Location: Lilydale
Contact:

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

Sorry stefan missed your post. Here is the latest SST anomaly chart.

Image

A few things to note, all the warming in Nino 1 and 2 which against the South American Coast is declining, and is forecast by CFS to have peaked.

The warmth in the Coral Sea will get carried across the top end toward the Arafura Sea. The only way that it can get carried into the Central Pacific Ocean is via a westerly wind burst..even then im not sure it will have much of an effect, as the Central Pacific is being cooled from the Bering Sea by the North Eq current. Here is the TAO data for trade winds showing Easterly winds.

Image

So, also dont forget we only had 3 El Ninos between 1950 and 1976 due to the cold pdo and they were weak episodes.

Also historically, we have never gone into an El nino at this time of year with such a cold pool feeding south from Alaska. In 2009, the water was warm to the North of nino 3.4. Here it is, make of it what you will.

Image

Will be an interesting few weeks, lets see where we end up, will be good for everyone because at the moment the atmosphere wants la nina and the ocean is warm neutral/weak Nino.
http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

avweatherforecasts.com
User avatar
stratospear
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:38 am
Location: Usually Bendigo

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

Meanwhile, the BOM continue to forecast a warm and dry ElNino August-October:
Image

Image
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cent ... cade/22106" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
User avatar
stratospear
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:38 am
Location: Usually Bendigo

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

It's funny how 1976 keeps popping up in these reports! Spring that year was notorious for its monster storms and tornadoes across North Central Victoria (i.e. Cup day storms and Sandon Tornado that November). Maybe AV is on to something?
n
nafets
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1324
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 6:10 pm
Location: Ascot vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by nafets »

I was reading somewhere in a book today that 75/76 was a La Nina year?
heres a chart of la nina years:

Image
Go the bombersss!
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by johnno »

The Spring of 75 and Summer of 75-76 was the 3rd of a triple La Nina Stefan but by Winter of 1976 it was Neutral
User avatar
stratospear
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:38 am
Location: Usually Bendigo

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by stratospear »

1976 saw a transition from a longish and deep La Nina to a weak El Nino which went neutral in Spring, similar to this year so far. It was also when the PDO shifted, but in the opposite direction. An interesting parallel in a lot of respects but of course anything could happen this year.
User avatar
Anthony Violi
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2652
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:03 pm
Location: Lilydale
Contact:

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Anthony Violi »

I think it could shock everyone what occurs this year, all the models are tipping drier and el nino and all the rest of it..

The game has changed, and by the end of summer i think we will see that very clearly.
http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

avweatherforecasts.com
W
Wetspot
New User
Reactions:
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:42 am

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Wetspot »

The models have varying opinions on where these summer will go. One of them has an ensemble mean of +1.2 degs approx. through December-February which I can't see at the moment. The eastwward propogation of warm water along the thermocline is out of puff to my eyes and this is a key ingredient in feeding the surface temps off Sth America.

I think warm neutral is still the most likely outcome for summer!
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2877
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Gordon »

Not quite spring, but the NCC have done it again.

Forecast: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... eaus.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Actual rainfall: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... th&area=vc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
G
Geoff
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2538
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)

Re: AWF Climate Outlook - Spring 2012

Post by Geoff »

This has been happening with such regularity the last few years that these forecasts have become completely meaningless.
Exactly the same in the UK, the Met Office seasonal outlooks are a national joke.
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
Locked