Great wordpress blog AV. Nicely laid out. !!
http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/ ... ring-2012/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I admire your enthusiasm.. Good on you.
Forecasting is not for the faint hearted .
From your page.I noticed there is one or two models as outliers from the main bunch that agree with you. a very weak La nina scenario.
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I was reading WZnews this evening and came across some climate data
which said the latest run of below freezing temps this winter in Canberra 2012 was significant.. at 48 days
but 1982 and 1997 beat the 2012 run of sub freezing days
quote
Canberra's winter now the frostiest in 15 years
Brett Dutschke, Tuesday August 28, 2012 - 13:24 EST
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canb ... ears/22324" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Canberra chilled to
minus 5.6 degrees this morning, the 48th freezing morning this winter, making it the frostiest winter in 15 years.
Forty-eight mornings with the temperature getting at least as low as zero degrees is five more than in winter last year and five more than average.
The last time there were more than 48 winter mornings this cold was in
1997, when there were 61. The winter record is 65 days, set in
1982.
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A tentative correlation?
I just thought that was a co-incidence
as
1997 and 1982 were both pre -strong El Nino events.
so will 2012 follow the pattern ..???.
Might just test this simple algorithm out. For a bit of unconventional fun..
If ..
Canberra has a long run of >= 48 below freezing minimums ( as per 1997,1982, 2012)
then
..strong El Nino to come..
However .. i think the 1997 strong El Nino had very little effect on reducing OZ rainfall?
But El Nino 's are good at raising the temp anomalies l believe?
From what l gather. The driest time of a strong El Nino in OZ' is spring and then the drying effect wanes into summer with increasing rainfall.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;