The Climate shift pattern for Melbourne

[johnno]

Rainfall anomalies going by Seasons since 2000 til now for Melbourne

Summer of 99/2000: Average rainfall
Autumn 2000: Average rainfall
Winter 2000: Average rainfall
Spring 2000: Above average rainfall

Summer 00/2001: Below averge rainfall
Autumn 2001: Above average rainfall
Winter 2001: Below average rainfall
Spring 2001: Average rainfall

Summer 01/2002: Average rainfall
Autumn 2002: Below average rainfall
Winter 2002: Below average rainfall
Spring 2002: Below average rainfall

Summer 02/2003: Below average rainfall
Autumn 2003: Below average rainfall
Winter 2003: Average rainfall
Spring 2003: Below average rainfall

Summer 03/2004: Average rainfall. (44.1c Australia day)
Autumn 2004: Below average rainfall
Winter 2004: Below average rainfall
Spring 2004: Above average rainfall

Summer 04/2005: Above average rainfall
Autumn 2005: Below average rainfall
Winter 2005: Below average rainfall
Spring 2005: Below average rainfall

Summer 05/2006: Above average rainfall
Autumn 2006: Below average rainfall
Winter 2006: Below average rainfall
Spring 2006: Below average rainfall

Summer 06/2007: Below average rainfall
Autumn 2007: Below average rainfall
Winter 2007: Below average rainfall
Spring 2007: Below average rainfall

Summer 07/2008: Below average rainfall
Autumn 2008: Below average rainfall
Winter 2008: Below average rainfall
Spring 2008: Below average rainfall

Summer 08/2009: Below average rainfall. (Black saturday fires and record 46.2c heat)
Autumn 2009: Below average rainfall
Winter 2009: Below average rainfall
Spring 2009: Average rainfall (The start of the Climate change shift for Melbourne)

Summer 09/2010: Average rainfall
Autumn 2010: Below average rainfall
Winter 2010: Average rainfall
Spring 2010: Above average rainfall

Summer 10/2011: Above average rainfall
Autumn 2011: Above average rainfall
Winter 2011: Below average rainfall
Spring 2011: Above average rainfall

Summer 11/2012: Above average rainfall
Autumn 2012: Above average rainfall

Analising season by season through the gripping drought through Melbourne and as you can see we had many seasons of below average rainfall from 2000 to 2009 especially from Autumn 2006 to Spring 2009 which contributed to the Black saturday fires in the Summer of 2009 which meant14 seasons in a row of below average rainfall! But since Spring 2009 there has been a distinct shift of rainfall patterns with the drought showing signs coming to an end at that stage and by Spring 2010 the drought being well and truly over! As the climate started to shift back to wetter conditions again (pre 1996 days)

[Rivergirl]

Thanks johnno. That was really interesting to read. Hope it doesn't go back to below average for a couple of years yet

[Geoff]

Really interesting to see that Johnno, well done!
On the subject of rainfall can I please have everyone's figures for the month of June (up to 9am today) to put on the rainfall map, and any other months that you may have missed, thanks.
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 933#p72933" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Anthony Violi]

Excellent post John.

Clearly the climate shift has now taken hold. We will still see a below average season here or there, but any notion of permanent droughts and heatwaves are absolute garbage.

The next 20 years will be an amazing period. PDO is now cold, whilst the AMO is still warm. AMO will turn cold next few years.

Temps wont plunge until later in the decade. They are gradually falling since 1998 but once the solar lag kicks in then they will start to really drop in 5 or so years.

It looks like we are only going to see weak El ninos or neutrals, and 2 year La Ninas.

What is scary is that all our records happened at the beginning of the wet cycle, unlike 74 which happened at the end of the last climate shift.

And i as i said repeatedly here years ago, climate science will be turned on its head with all the doom and gloom predictions wrong, most of the IPCC AR4 report has been debunked by the climate itself.

So just watch, observe how wrong climate models are wrong, like the BOM going for a positive IOD, and enjoy the records that get broken.

And why you ask? Because the corruption in the weather community runs high and strong, all the models think Co2 is causing pattern shifts and warming cos thats what is input into them. Models are not factoring in the cold PDO, and when i see CFS version 1 and 2 you can see the corruption clearly. Version 1 shows a weak Nino at best, which has already peaked, version2, highly corrupted, shows a strong Nino that has no chance of developing. In fact Nino 1 and 2 has already peaked.

So just remember that when you wonder why EC had 17mm last week and we recieved 65mm. Dont be alarmed why the BOM is forecasting dry seasonal outlooks and parts of WA are getting destroyed with rain, tornadoes and freezing temps. I will be honest and say i dont really pay much attention to the models other than a guide, because you can just see the outputs are just so wrong at times.

And if you think logically, climate shifts dont happen abruptly all over the world. It has started here and will slowly spread over a few years. Its a gradual process, i think we are still a decade away from going to back to 1980s sort of patterns. Which is good news if you like floods becuase that is what is happening with all the tropical infeeds going on, that is our current pattern and may stay with us for a while yet.

I feel sorry for those people who believe that Co2 is a driver of climate, because whats coming to them means they will all be out of a job.

Anyways, great post John.

[daviescr]

Just going to move this to Climatology guys.... I'm also going to unlock that forum until further notice

Cheers
Chris

[crikey]

Great compilation of 'stats' Johnno very informative and interesting..
I gather a tendency for el Nino episodes and lack of strong la nina in that time period had something to do with the low rainfall
and
from the monthly mean AAO ( SAM)values 2003 to 2007 there was a very low SAM amplitude
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ndex.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I would love to here from Johnno and forum members what you consider to be the main influences of this low rainfall in Melbourne during the extended period of below average rainfall..
How was the IOD , Indian ocean SST's , blocking regimes,
or other climate indicators , MSLP patterns?( high ridging etc) during this time?

[Geoff]

How was the IOD , Indian ocean SST's , blocking regimes,
or other climate indicators , MSLP patterns?( high ridging etc) during this time?

Ha! That sounds like the perfect task for you crikey, to delve into that mountain of available statistics and come up with an answer, my knees buckle at the thought of it! Good luck with that one!

[crikey]

Ha >>LOL Geoff.. It would be an interesting investigation.
What caused the rain deficit ? If l come across anything interesting l will post.
So far .. it would seem an El Nino dominant period and low amplitude SAM for much of that time period for a start..

[Anthony Violi]

Loved your post on WZ Crikey with the MEI figures since 1950.

Perfectly correlates with temps (that are not adjusted) showing ENSO is still the major player.

However, im currently doing research trying to corrate solar as well.

It appears that to have the so called perfect storm of 2011 does not happen often.

And that was with solar being close to max. We still have a long way to go and much to learn.

[Karl Lijnders]

Well how long this shift is on for - no one really knows, but it is not warming at a rate of knots or drying anywhere near what was stated 10-20yrs ago. Even in Al Gores - An Inconvinient Truth, most of what was spoken about in that documentary has not come to pass.

I would find that the upcoming season to be one of the more interesting ones we have had in quite some time, to really get a handle of what we are dealing with here.

I am for the record with AV 100% on all of this. Increased rainfall, storms and severe weather.

But it will again go dry, but not so accutely, at times. That is the nature of where we live!

[stratospear]

The article in today's Fairfax press made me laugh:
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/we ... 21fjs.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Muppets.

Anyway, I like what I see from JAMSTEC regarding a -ve IOD this spring and that should negate any weak ElNino here. Although cool waters south of Java could temper a -ve IOD.

This climate shift is probably very similar to the late-1940s/early 1950s when the PDO shifted in a similar way. But with weak solar maximums now instead of the strong maximums back then - we're probably heading into uncharted territory...

[Anthony Violi]

Exactly as i said earlier Strato...if the Solar Cycle 25 comes off even half as much as Archibald says it will be a cause of great concern.

On top of the Cold PDO, AMO will go cold as well, with solar joining in on the party by 2016.

All will align and there will be unprecedented events.

[Karl Lijnders]

Hence why perhaps the reactionary models are reacting so violently at the moment - more so in favor of intense rainfall at times. CFS has fallen back a little today but changes everyday lol!

Looks like overall I am trending towards wetter and colder conditions to continue for another 12 months with large scale flooding in C and E VIC.

[Karl Lijnders]

Oh and the waters off the NW coast is very much a seasonal shift with SE winds there. Not too concerned about that just yet.

[crikey]

Started some investigation re: Melbourne climate shift ( low rainfall regimes since 1976..)
I found an article from BOM that indicates the drought/low rainfall period was longer and more extensive than Johhno had outlined?.
Quote:
"This years rainfall ( 2010) ends the longest run of below average years in Melbourne's history - a 13 year stretch from 1997 to 2009" said Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist, Dr Harvey Stern.
Prior to the "long dry" the previous record run of dry years
was six years set from 1979 to 1984.
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... 1126.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Overlaying these Melbourne low rainfall regimes on the mean monthly SAM yields a disappointing.. no correlation with mean SAM
I wouldn't rely on SAM trends for predicting rainfall trends in Melbourne..

However the MEI ( multivariate index..ENSO ) and associated climate shift of the around 1976 yielded a very good correlation with the predominant El Nino period.
Both low rainfall periods fell post climate shift 1976.
I found this match very very interesting for Melbourne
It wouldn't surprise me if the whole period from 1976 to 2009 was low in rainfall for Melbourne except from the period of 1988 -1989 which was the only strong la Nina period from 1976 to 2009 ( one in 34 years!!)
You may have to press control ++ on the keyboard to enlarge the screen image to read the details

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8007/7500 ... 604d_c.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Karl Lijnders]

Amazing analysis Crikey thanks!!!

I think with the IOD coming into favor this year, rainfall will be elevated on frontal systems. Typically in El Nino situations, the cold front activity can be quite severe.

[Karl Lijnders]

Coast Mayor looks at drought possibility
Friday July 6, 2012 - 05:36 EST
A Eurobodalla wool producer and Shire Mayor on the New South Wales far south coast says he hopes looming dry conditions will not be as devastating as the last drought.

The National Climate Centre has released its quarterly forecast, saying it expects drier than average conditions in the next three months.

Councillor Fergus Thomson says farmers are constantly preparing for adverse weather.

He says unless the dry spell is as bad as the recent 10-year drought, producers should be able to cope.

â??Farmers across the coast and across the Monaro have actually got themselves in a position where they've been able to re-build many of their stock numbers,â?? Councillor Thomson said.

â??They had reduced any excess stock and these last couple of years have very much enabled those stock numbers to be restored.

â??It would be a shame and a concern if that was to change.â??

For more, go to the


- ABC

© ABC 2012

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Totally out of context IMO.

[crikey]

Thanks AV and KJ..Glad you got something out of that post
I certainly your enjoy AWF members posts
regards