Tropical Cyclone Debbie

[JasmineStorm]

Just starting a thread for a significant weather event unfolding off the Nth Queensland coast - on the basis of size, current surface sea temperatures and favourable wind shear conditions, Tropical Cyclone Debbie has the potential to upgrade to a top 10 most powerful cyclone in Australian recorded history to hit the mainland. Here is the current situation as of 11am and latest EC model run 2603 00z.

[mick]

They are already sandbagging Longreach.

[JasmineStorm]

Not surprised Mick..... Debbie is a water bomb on the southern side. If it steers to Townsville, they have an 11 foot high tide on Tuesday morning... not enough sand bangs in Qld to stop that with a storm surge.

[JasmineStorm]

another round of convection towers touching -80c to -90c on the cloud tops, southern side of the eye wall. She is starting to move up a gear..... http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 252150.GIF

[JasmineStorm]

JTWC now think a cat 5 at landfall around Ayr, Townsville Tuesday PM - http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... sh1317.gif

[Geoff]

Understandably all eyes will be on Cyclone Debbie, but who will pay any attention to the monster down in the Southern Ocean at the same time?
Debbie's central pressure seems to be around 980hPa according to Ventusky on landfall, whereas the low down below will be an incredible 926hPa! .....

post image online

[JasmineStorm]

Ear throbbing stuff Geoff !! Incredible how low those Polar monsters go. That should give us a nice autumn feel later in the week and stir up the pot somewhere with Debbie coming down.

GFS has struggled a little with TC Debbie and is still playing catch up. BoM has just measured Debbie at 983 hPa already, EC think landfall around 945 hPa and HWRF thinks 969 hPa. EC has been really good one this one, had a severe cyclone days ahead of the others.

Latest track map - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[mick]

I was at the beach at Townsville recently, 11ft and its in the streets I reckon.
Its not a wide beach, the waters are shallow, maybe the street is 8ft asl.

[JasmineStorm]

I think if it hits around 9am Tuesday, it's the high tide so around a 16 foot surge. No wonder its a mandatory evacuating in low lying area, big wall of water.

Here is the latest from the BoM. Landfall a solid cat 4 still on the cards around Ayr

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 7:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South, 150.9 degrees East , 440 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 330 kilometres east northeast of Bowen .
Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour .
Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system tonight. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

[JasmineStorm]

TPW now around 75mm near the eye wall. Debbie is the mother of all water bombs

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 17,-18.432

[JasmineStorm]

TC Debbie is starting to crank at a category 3 severe cyclone. Great shot of her at 2.10pm off Bowen and Whitsundays

[JasmineStorm]

Bowen and Whitsunday's now more in the firing line for a cat 4.

[JasmineStorm]

She's now in the 940's hPa and falling - Debbie is starting to bomb, TPW around 80mm near the core. BoM upgrade to 4. This is now a serious cyclone.

[JasmineStorm]

TC Debbie 8:50pm IR Sat Pic - convection towers sustaining -80c. RI bombing underway

[JasmineStorm]

Her core continues to warm, Debbie is still maturing. currently a high cat 4

[JasmineStorm]

Just did a Dvorak check as BoM tech bulletin not updated. 934 hPa, 120 knots.... on that algorithm shes currently a cat 5

[JasmineStorm]

Just off the coast and Whitsunday islands. Category 4

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... sh1317.gif

[JasmineStorm]

Debbie is virtually stalled - Hamilton Island currently receiving gusts near 200 km/h.

Eye currently 48 km wide at 8.40am, Dvorak estimate 933 hPa, 122 knots

Estimated crossing the coast at 1pm QLD time just south of Bowen.

[JasmineStorm]

222 km/h (120 knots) gust on Hamilton island at the airport. SPECI YBHM 272212Z AUTO 12086G120KT 0300 // SCT006 OVC012 26/26 Q0974
RMK RF01.2/099.0

[snowfall]

It is certainly moving slowly. Those winds on Hamilton Island have really picked up in the last hour. I notice Hayman Island has entered the eye.