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VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

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Rhys_34
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Rhys_34 »

Yes worst case scenario next Thursday according to EC with 850hpa temps of 30C and gusts up to 80-90km over Victoria, very similar conditions to Black Saturday...
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by stevco123 »

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here regarding next Thursday. Some models showing highs of 32-35 in southern VIC.

We'll need a few more runs definitely on this one.

A week ago, some models were showing 43-45 for Melbourne for this week, which didn't eventuate.

Different story for the north ofcourse, as it continues to bake.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

This summer is virtually a copy of last summer:
- Ocean SST is very similar (cold Eastern Indian Ocean, stinking hot Tasman Sea)
- A wet and stormy December and a flash drought in January
- A stewing oven in Inland Australia
- Persistent anticyclone over the Tasman Sea

Remember we had a strong cold front on January 30 last year which dumped a fair bit of rain on Vic. I wonder if the same will occur?
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by JasmineStorm »

Sitting on 39.8c at the moment with some high cloud coming in. Certainly a hot few days @t 527m. It's at the level now where I have to drop a couple more ice cubes in the afternoon G&T ;)

GFS and New GFS-FV3 18z now putting the polar jet in the same position as EC & UK early next week in the Southern Ocean. Hmmm... 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th most accurate models on earth are playing the same tune on the strength of the jet and upper low. I hope they are all wrong....
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

I'm keeping a close eye on some NSW sites today.

Wilcannia is one to watch - up to 45.8c so far. Might give its all-time record of 48c a shake.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by stevco123 »

StratoBendigo wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:41 pm I'm keeping a close eye on some NSW sites today.

Wilcannia is one to watch - up to 45.8c so far. Might give its all-time record of 48c a shake.
Don't forget SA sites - Tarcoola 47.4 so far
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by JasmineStorm »

Interesting to look at the BoM Historical records showing only W.A and S.A automatic weather stations have ever passed 50c and only 3 times, with the last being 1998 in W.A. The other 2 were back to back days for Oodnadatta in Jan 1960. Its a significant high mark, so it will be interesting to see if this current terrestrial heat bomb can do it in the next 2 weeks.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

43.6c max so far today. And that's with some cloud overhead. Disgusting. I've had enough.

Tarcoola in SA 48.3c so far today.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

I think Albury (45.3) is a record?
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

Tassiedave wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:18 pm I think Albury (45.3) is a record?
At current site (since 1973) - yes. Although it was 45.4c at Wodonga in Feb 1968.

Perisher Valley made it to 30.1c which is quite remarkable for that altitude and also an all-time record (previously 29.8c on Black Saturday 2009). Several 48c temps in NSW today too.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Sean »

Another horrible day north of the divide. But a slight reprieve is on the way. NSW will have to wait a little longer.

Temperatures then building again early next week. How relentless
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Didjman »

Sean wrote: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:29 pm Temperatures then building again early next week. How relentless
Nature does its thing - waits for no one; same as the power in storms :D
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Min of 24C in FC. That’s a couple of degrees above our average max for January, so another warm one already. Going to be verging on hot in the south today, and hot in the north but shy of the crazy heat of the past few days up there. The fierce heat will be over NSW. Cloud and showers will take the edge of things for us. Rainfall looks hit and miss, and models not agreeing on where will do best (though pretty clear the north won’t get much :( ).

But still no meaningful change to flush the overall heat away. There won’t be many heat records left standing at the end of this summer if this keeps up :( The only things that has saved us breaking absolute heat records has been the lack of low level sites in WA and quite benign synoptic patterns. One stat I picked up was that 4 of the nations hottest ten days have occurred in the last week (alone..).

Thursday next week looks less bad this morning in EC. System mostly dives under us so a bad day but not the awful one being shown yesterday. Maybe some rain, though I’ll believe it when I see it in the gauge ;)
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

We are receiving our first rain in Northern Tasmania this morning since the 23rd of December
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Melbourne forecast upgraded to 37C :o That’s the same as the latest EC meteogram :?
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by flyfisher »

Cannot see the cloud clearing so I am not sure about the 37 forecast - perhaps the hot air will cut under the cloud?
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Horts »

Upgraded to 35 forecasted for the Peninsula, I gotta say that's a little surprising.

I'm outside walking the dog now and it doesn't feel much over 21-22.

With the cloud cover I really can't see it hitting 35 here today unless I'm not seeing something the BOM are?
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon »

One of the BOM forecasters on the radio just said they now expect the cloud to break up for a bit this afternoon, hence the (revised) predicted spike in temps - I hope they're wrong!

25C here with spits of rain.
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by stevco123 »

Gordon wrote: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:12 am One of the BOM forecasters on the radio just said they now expect the cloud to break up for a bit this afternoon, hence the (revised) predicted spike in temps - I hope they're wrong!

25C here with spits of rain.

I call BS on that. Have they seen the current satellite image? Cloud won't be gone for hours
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Sean »

Saw the froecast and I thought it was an error. If it gets anywhere near 37 I'll be surprised
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