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VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

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hillybilly
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Mild night here with a min of 21.8C. House is nice and cool.

One of those days that makes Melbourne’s weather less than perfect. Like seriously, what’s with the 25, 42 and 22C. Anyone looking at this from afar would think the numbers in the middle are backthefeont :D

Anyway, front is now through Mt Gambier and onto the southwest coast. It’s a slow one, getting to Geelong around 2:30 and the city an hour or so after that on the models. They can slow or surge, so obs will be interesting. Thinking lots of eyes will be on the Doppler about 3pm. Will be a pretty dangerous period for any going fires with potential for nasty gusts near the change :(

Progs seems to be a tiny bit faster, which hopefully caps the potential heat. EC has toned the northwest down to about 45C and has the cities western and northwestern burbs peaking in the 42-43C range. We had a 41.7C in the city January last year, so guess that’s the first number to watch :? Hottest recorded at Olympic Park is 43.4C in 2014. Before that, you are back to the January and February heatwaves of 2009, which we hopefully won’t challenge. Thinking the area west of Swan Hill will be the area to watch for any runs at the Victorian January record high.

Looks like showers after the change, mainly east of Melbourne.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by HarleyB »

Got down to 15 here, beating the forecast minimums by 6. No idea what that means for maximums but if the 44 max verifies that'll be a diurnal variation of 29 degrees. Pretty impressive!
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Rhys_34 »

This mornings run of EC has 850hpa temps down a little so a max of 43-44C for Melbourne and 46C for places like Mildura seem to be about the maximum possible temps...
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Gordon »

hillybilly wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:45 am Mild night here with a min of 21.8C. House is nice and cool.

One of those days that makes Melbourne’s weather less than perfect. Like seriously, what’s with the 25, 42 and 22C. Anyone looking at this from afar would think the numbers in the middle are backthefeont :D
I can't recall a 40C day bookended by sub 30C days here - not often (if ever) you get a cool night's sleep before and after? Talk about flash heat!

Harley, I just noticed Alexandra was 13C at 7am, so something unexpected has certainly happened with cool air penetrating inland for the north-east. Still forecast to reach 40-odd though.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Didjman »

We had a min of 14.7 at 0330 here
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Change taking a while to kick in near Adelaide. Still 31 degrees there a few minutes ago
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Didjman »

Temp 28/8 here, wind to 30klm/hr atm
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Adam38 »

The wind is really starting to pick up now as is the temperature at 33c already.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Rhys_34 wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:19 am This mornings run of EC has 850hpa temps down a little so a max of 43-44C for Melbourne and 46C for places like Mildura seem to be about the maximum possible temps...
Progs have been edging cooler for a couple of days. Still a stinker, but less so. About five days back they were throwing up 48C or higher in the northwest, and approaching 45C near Melbourne. The warm air advection doesn't quite get going with this one (the trough in the easterlies and trough in the westerlies are offset).

Front is now about 100km west of Cape Otway. Winds here in the Dandenongs are light (which is good) and staying east of north.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Fronts through Cape Otway :D That puts it 170km from Melbourne. It does appear to be running a bit faster than expected :?:

Sheoaks is now up to 35C so temps taking off ahead of it. Wouldn't surprise me if we saw a 40C out that way by 10am :?
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Didjman »

hillybilly wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:31 am Fronts through Cape Otway :D That puts it 170km from Melbourne. It does appear to be running a bit faster than expected :?:
Front appears to be aligned along surf coast, travelling much slower over land.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by wolfcat »

So close for Avalon... 39.9c 10:33am
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... MELBOUR241

this site is showing a little hotter than anything else around here..
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by snowfall »

Horrible weather outside. 36.7c currently with a DP of 8c and gusty winds. Peak wind gust 47km/h so far this morning. Grass in the fields and on the hills is looking a lot drier just from this morning’s fan-forced oven.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Temps taking off as expected. Mildura will be near 45C by 1pm, with the mark already reached just across the border at Renmark. Most sites in Melbourne metro now nudging 40C or worse. Bit of a contrast in conditions across Melbourne with winds east of north and fairly light out east and west of north and gusty out west. Temperature and dewpoints respond with a ~5C difference.

Up here its 32C with a light wind. Sky looks dusty and grass is quickly drying off :(

BTW significant fire northwest of Hobart ATM.

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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Didjman »

hillybilly wrote: Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:23 pm

BTW significant fire northwest of Hobart ATM.
Very visible on Satpic
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Change through Aireys Inlet, so ~100km away from the city. Avalon and Geelong now both 43C rounded. Hot spot in Victoria thus far is 45.0C at Walpeup. At this point, would tend to think the Victorian Dec record is not out of the question with a few more hours of heating :(
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Onetahuti »

Up to 40.7°C here which nudges out the 40.6°C I recorded on 27/12.
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by Didjman »

38.8 here which equates to 41 at sea level
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Re: VIC: Scorcher - December 24 2018 to January 5 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Mt Gellibrand is 42C at ~250m. That's about 44/45C sea level equivalent :o The peak of the heat in the progs has been quite consistently in the area from about Mortlake to northwest of the city. 46.0C at Walpeup :?

The wind change has just gone through Torquay, so just south of the Bay Heads.
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