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Victoria: Major upper and surface lows - 12–16 Dec 2018

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flyfisher
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by flyfisher »

Zero for the day - last rain proper rain was Thursday last week in the morning. Zero thunder for the event. The flow is more favorable for us now from the NW but still missing. Perhaps I should go water the garden :(
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by James »

nothing here, just dark and gloomy with bits of sun...
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Tassiedave »

Sizeable storm about to impact Hobart
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by hillybilly »

flyfisher wrote: Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:55 pm Zero for the day - last rain proper rain was Thursday last week in the morning. Zero thunder for the event. The flow is more favorable for us now from the NW but still missing. Perhaps I should go water the garden :(
What’s your event total? The Southern Yarra Ranges has split all the storms. Just dumb bad luck. We have had 40mm here in Ferny Creek, but should have seen double that given how much has died or exploded just north, south or west of us :roll:

Was driving back from Walkerville and hit the recent line south of Berwick. Torrential, with sheets of water across roads. Paddocks near there have lots of water in them from the storms yesterday and today. Would not be surprised if some spots have seen over 100mm down there.

Change is still yet to push through so event not quite done, but not confident.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Dane »

One more pic.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Probably one of the last bands of showers to move across, currently extending over the western burbs and the bay area, will be over bayside suburbs shortly. Might chuck out the odd bolt or two, but much more stable air moving in now. What an event (for most areas - sorry to those who missed out, I know how frustrating it can be, weather is a challenging beast)!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Hawker »

A very nice little sting in the tail end of the system.
18 mm out of that shower that moved through slowly.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Sean »

One of the most frustrating yet brilliant systems for a long time. No direct storm hits, but this system got me to an average year for the first time since the 2010/2011 la nina (or thereabouts).

I really hope this is a taste of what's to come this summer.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by flyfisher »

hillybilly wrote: Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:01 pm
flyfisher wrote: Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:55 pm Zero for the day - last rain proper rain was Thursday last week in the morning. Zero thunder for the event. The flow is more favorable for us now from the NW but still missing. Perhaps I should go water the garden :(
What’s your event total? The Southern Yarra Ranges has split all the storms. Just dumb bad luck. We have had 40mm here in Ferny Creek, but should have seen double that given how much has died or exploded just north, south or west of us :roll:
My own weather station I don't have hooked up to a recording devise such as a computer so I am estimating about 25mm from my spot views of it. I am about 50 meters from the Monbulk creek station (586258)

It really highlights just how diabolically bad a NE flow is for us on the south side of the Dandenongs. It seems that there is a lot of orographic subsidence coming over the range around Warburton. But a little further west along the Black Spur to Kingslake it's ok with showers and storms doing good down the Watts/Yarra Valley. The north face of Mt Dandenong seemed to help steer them west also - the old rock in the river analogy. If this was the normal weather pattern then the Dandenongs would look like the YouYangs.

To the SE of here the storms seem to like the area between the Strzelecki’s and Cranbourne - again probably due to topography. The cutoff low did not progress to the normal playbook of moving SE and bombing in Eastern Bass straight - which would have given us a lovely SW wraparound. Wilson's Prom is my favorite place for it to bomb (Remember the retrograding low many years ago!)

I will be much more careful when these type of setup's occur in the future with a quasi stationary low in NW Victoria. Downgrading expected rain and storms as least before it reaches Bass straight. A fascinating system to watch, just wanted some local better falls to keep everything green in the wet bush environment here.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by flyfisher »

Of course the moment I post this and I check the radar and something is coming right at us from the west - surely this one will make it?
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by weathergasm »

Yeah, it wasn't a particularly stormy event for many but the rain that came through on Friday afternoon really was quite incredible for the CBD and inner east - not only for the rain rate but for the direction it came from! To be honest I almost prefer events like this that give you multiple chances across a few days to events where it's all over in an hour.

Summer is young and I'm sure there's plenty of excitement and surprises ahead😈
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Onetahuti »

The last brief shower dropped 3mm here bringing the event total to 52.4mm. I am happy with as it was moderate at best and spread over 4 days thus not much run-off, great for the gardens.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Tassiedave »

Max Temps in Tas today Campania 29.7, Cape Bruny 27.7, Hobart 26.3, Cressy 25.8, Tunnack 25.2, Launceston 25.0, St Helens 23.7
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Tassiedave »

Rain in Tas since 9am: Clifton Beach 31mm, Hobart 27mm, Leslie Vale 27mm, Corra Linn 25mm, Wynyard 22mm, Smithton 16mm, Tooms Lake 13mm, Launceston Airport 11mm, Launceston 3.2mm
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Sean »

Tassiedave wrote: Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:23 pm Rain in Tas since 9am: Clifton Beach 31mm, Hobart 27mm, Leslie Vale 27mm, Corra Linn 25mm, Wynyard 22mm, Smithton 16mm, Tooms Lake 13mm, Launceston Airport 11mm, Launceston 3.2mm
Nice little score for Hobart. Usually scrapes through with dribs and drabs.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Tassiedave »

Yes Sean! The 27mm in Hobart fell in between 530 and 630 in a pretty big storm.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Macedonian »

76mm here. My YTD just clicked over 900mm. Pretty happy with that but need about 30mm to make the yearly average.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by JasmineStorm »

47mm for the thread here. December tracking along nicely and YTD now close to average.

Always good to do an actual vs forecast for the BoM. They always give a big media release for climate outlook but never do an actual vs forecast follow up, so I'm doing it for them :) They quoted in their 27 September release "Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The October to December outlook indicates current drought areas are unlikely to see significant respite in the coming three months"

In late August I spotted a significant pressure anomaly in the highest level of the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere. This type of event normally eventually moves down through propagating rossby waves and pops out several months later towards the surface as upper cold core cut off lows. The BoM have this missing in their climate forecast jigsaw puzzle IMO. They gave only a 25% chance of these rainfall events occuring.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by StratoBendigo »

We ended up with 48mm for the event, 68mm since Dec 8. Not bad at all.

Not a patch on Birchip (Woodlands) which had 195mm (199mm mtd). Extraordinary. At that station which goes back to 1890, the current December monthly record is 1930 with 222mm. I think quite a few similarities exist between the Dec 1930 storm and floods, and this one. (Although Daylesford had heaps in that storm, but not so much in 2018)

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/53917277
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 12–16 Dec

Post by Dane »

11.6mm's in the 24 hours to 9am. Event total 42.1mm's MTD 66mm's - Ave 72mm's. YTD 672 - Ave 770mm's.
Even though we missed most of the really heavy rain 42mm's over 5 days was pretty handy.
Looks like a fairly dry and mild period leading up to Christmas, may get a few mm's on Thursday
but that's about it.
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