Victoria: Major upper and surface lows - 12–16 Dec 2018

[JasmineStorm]

25c and a 17c Dew point here. Longerenong in the Wimmera now has a DP of 21c.

As an Entrée, I'm issuing a thunderstorm watch for this area

[Jake Smethurst]

The Australian Weather Forum
Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1

Very unstable atmospheric conditions exist across Victoria today ahead of a trough of low pressure that will extend into the west of the state this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are already occurring over parts of the northwest and southwest of the state. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are considered likely during this afternoon and evening as the atmospheric environment becomes more unstable coupled with an increasing moisture profile and the trough moving closer to the state. A focus on activity is likely during the afternoon and evening thanks to maximum surface heating opportunities and also about the west, closest to the trigger point where convective potential can be more fully realised. The eastern ranges may also provide additional forcing for a focus area of development this afternoon. The biggest threat in today's thunderstorms is likely damaging winds and heavy rainfall, although large hail is certainly possible. There is a smaller risk (around 10%) of more organised thunderstorms (i.e. supercells) in the west this afternoon.

Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 121218.png (47.23 KiB) Viewed 6695 times

[Gordon]

Jake and Jasmine, you're not helping my efforts to focus on work this morning .

Well I've seen all the forecasts for the eastern side of town, still waiting for the one out here in the western desert.
My guess is 5-10mm with no storms & plenty of wind leading up to it.

That strategy has worked very well for Stratobendigo the last two events .

[Skywalker]

Jake and Jasmine, you're not helping my efforts to focus on work this morning .

Well I've seen all the forecasts for the eastern side of town, still waiting for the one out here in the western desert.
My guess is 5-10mm with no storms & plenty of wind leading up to it.

That strategy has worked very well for Stratobendigo the last two events .

Fingers crossed hey Gordon.

[Jake Smethurst]

Jake and Jasmine, you're not helping my efforts to focus on work this morning .

I'm not sure how I'm going to focus for my 1pm-9pm shift either Storm activity today will still be hit and miss in-nature as usual, so not everyone will get one, we just have to keep that in mind.

By the way, here is the 12z EC rainfall scenario from 12am Thursday to 11:59pm Thursday, indicates rain beginning morning hours before increasing late morning, click on the link below to view.

https://twitter.com/AusWeatherForum/sta ... 6144808960

[Gordon]

Interesting animation Jake!

And BOM have just posted a SWW:

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Central, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and parts of Mallee, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 11:27 am Wednesday, 12 December 2018.
Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms developing Thursday morning - flash flooding may result.

Edit: Now joined by a Flood Watch for or Greater Melbourne, Goulburn, Barwon and parts of West Gippsland.

[Skywalker]

Looks like some development might be starting to take place looking out my south west facing window here at work.

[Didjman]

CirroCu and gravity waves over tulla - bring it on!!

[Adam38]

Storms are building up in the Wimmera with a few sparks around Nhill.

[Luken]

Hi all, looking forward to the next few days, looks like a ripper!

In case you haven't seen this - https://mthotham.panomax.com/#

Great view the high plains and toward Feathertop. Scoll back a few shots to see a nice storm blowing through there ATM.

[Didjman]

From the live tracker, those storms out west appear to be pulsing.

[JasmineStorm]

BoM have just had their big press conference about TC Owen and Hell's mouth from the south. Media headlines are lighting up

A few cells across the state ticking along nicely.

TC Owen now Cat 2 and has dropped 13 hPa in 12 hours.

[stevco123]

This is definitely a huge event for the eastern half of Australia. Ofcourse it will be hit and miss as to who gets the most severe rain, but I'm promising myself right now to not whinge if my area ends up on the lower end of the spectrum.

Overall it is huge!

[Wilko]

BOM 4 day synoptic is out and well how should I say !
Holy Hell !
Our Low doesn’t go anywhere and taps into the TC right up to Saturday

Might check my flood insurance

[Wilko]

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting to see the latest high res Access C run 00Z is painting a 100 to 200mm waterbomb target on the Wimmera in the next 36 hours. Model volatility going through the roof from one run to the next

[occluded]

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Wow. Must've been some time since the entire 4-day outlook has shown a Low either over us/to the south and forecast rain?

[StratoBendigo]

Interesting to see the latest high res Access C run 00Z is painting a 100 to 200mm waterbomb target on the Wimmera in the next 36 hours. Model volatility going through the roof from one run to the next

It's reflected in 00Z GFS too. 178mm over Dimboola - ouch if that happens.

[nafets]

GFS has all that rain (100mm+) tonight near Horsham. Its convective and never going to be perfect with placement of rain - storms are dropping rain further east and south of 00z GFS. Models generally agreeing that morning - afternoon Thursday in Melbourne and Central is going to be wet with 30-60mm. Thats big, I'm excited!

[wolfcat]

BOM just updated.