Victoria: Waiting and hoping - 26 Oct - 4 Nov 2018

[Gordon]

Early next week for a solid follow-up system. Perhaps a new thread for that one.

Yes agree HB, probably close enough now to create a new thread without killing it...

Meanwhile, watching NW storms edge closer and enjoying the lack of dust .

[StratoBendigo]

Not really a lot in it today. More wind than rain.

Forecast models are still holding for a Melbourne Cup special weather event....

[JasmineStorm]

A few CG's nearby in that cluster that passed through, 6mm so far. Currently 20c with a 18c dew point and now the sun is coming back out

[Gordon]

Up to 4mm here - I'll take what I can get .

We seem to have somehow avoided the worst of the wind so far; hope that trend continues!

[Sean]

So gdamn cloudy of course. Always ruins things

[Blackie]

4mm. here in Mansfield from steady rain over the last 2 hours and it continues lightly. Look forward to this arvo's potential as well as early next week

Lake Eildon just on 60%, well under what it has been at this time of year recently.

[hillybilly]

Nearly 4mm at home so far.

Wind change due between 3 and 5pm for central Vic. Plenty of clear air to the west between the clearing showers and wind change. With DPs in the 15-20C range would expect this to pop??? GFS has no interest but puts LI down to around -5. EC reckons showers and storms mid arvo.

[JasmineStorm]

rumbling again....these cells are starting to move real quick. Current 60 to 70 knots @700 hPa

[hillybilly]

rumbling again....these cells are starting to move real quick. Current 60 to 70 knots @700 hPa

You seeing any development on the western Plains yet? High res satellite images suggest to me we might be starting to bubble west of Melbourne?

[Wilko]

Arvo free tick
Storm potential tick
Currently Paving tick
Gutters full tick
Camera ready tick

[nafets]

Different things going on in each direction - North is dark and stormy (bases of larger cumulus), high based popcorn cumulus in blue skies here and towards CBD, West has lots of high junk like cirrus, some blue on the horizon with cumulus. Hope that makes some sense. (Ascot Vale)

[JasmineStorm]

rumbling again....these cells are starting to move real quick. Current 60 to 70 knots @700 hPa

You seeing any development on the western Plains yet? High res satellite images suggest to me we might be starting to bubble west of Melbourne?

Sky has brightened to the west but it's starting to bubble a little. Still good moisture potential above out west on the latest water vapour image.

[Didjman]

Sun is out over Tulla; now for the wait for Boom or bust

Northerly is still quite strong, humid too

[StratoBendigo]

Cells all seem to be East of here now. I suspect that might be it... Fizzer.

[Tassiedave]

10000 Lightning Strikes in Tasmania last night. Fire burning on the East Coast.

[Skywalker]

I'm in the western suburbs until 6:30pm then I'm heading down to the island through the south east.
Now surely between the two different locations I'll get to experience at least something!

[Blackie]

Cells all seem to be East of here now. I suspect that might be it... Fizzer.

Oh no the F word so soon! Optimistic for sparks in this area next hour

[Macedonian]

6mm for me. Sun is out in Macedon, its warm and blustery.

[nafets]

Liking the look of the 1:20pm Sat Pic for Melbourne's chances, shows a field of Cu developing to the WNW (although young). Full sun and very windy here 29c.

[Blackie]

Close to a direct hit from those cells. Loud thunder and rain. Up to 10mm now.