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Victoria: Waiting and hoping - 26 Oct - 4 Nov 2018

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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

Rainfall for October Launceston 27.4 mm - Average 50.2; Hobart 30.2 mm Average 61.3. Launceston Temp was 1.2 degrees above avge
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Latest EC has Friday's K-index near 40 in central areas. It's simulated cloud cover showing a nice sun lit convection oven before the front. A bit of a KABOOM zone appearing IMO :)
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

EC and CMC going big for Friday now. Geez can’t keep track of the zig zags on this one. Put me down for something between 3 and 30mm for Friday :roll:

Next weeks much more consistent with a series of solid troughs and eventually a cold outbreak.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Adam38 »

I’m going to guess areas west of Melbourne are going to miss out?
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

I’m going to guess areas west of Melbourne are going to miss out?
Tending to look like early patchy rain, clearing to a hot humid windy day with showers and storms firing. Timing is everything on these days. EC has the front through Melbourne mid to late arvo. Later the better. Would usually expect storms to fire from about 1pm on these days so you need to be east of the trough at this time.

Set up reminds me of many of the better storm days with very low LI around -5, TotTot near 55, wind change mid arvo, and significant sheer. Should organise nicely into a a straight line band of storms... but the jumpiness of the progs worries me, the front isn’t that sharp, low level dewpoints are modest and temperatures high which means fairly elevated LCLs, and the timing on the trough is a little early for my liking. I think it’s this mix of factors which the models are struggling with. Slight delay on the front and a bit more low level moisture and this is big, faster and drier and it’s a bust.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Water vapour in the mid levels of the troposphere has steadily increased in the last hour. Storms sparking off the Otway's moving SE.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Temperatures starting to take off now as the winds swing around to the north :? Melbourne looks on track of easily making 33C now :(

Watch the northwest. A 41C would be a Victoria Spring early season record, so gotta be a chance at this point.

Looks like a few storms popped up also near the Grampians heading ESE. Expect most action today will slip south of most of us.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Have headed down home to the farm in the southwest for a few days until Sunday. Currently sitting on 33 degrees here, so quite a warm one.

Had 5mm to 9am on the farm from morning thundery showers, was good to see some lightning and hear that thunder again! A great little surprise.

Convection developing to our north and northwest here at the moment. Progs look pretty good for development down here this afternoon with the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Definitely keeping an eye on things :)
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Forecast nailed the temperatures today in the end. 34C in the city (against the official forecast of 33C).

Really dry air mixed in now in central areas, but moist air is spreading across the west.

Not really confident about tomorrow as models are spraying and jumping. GFS has little, EC has moderate to heavy falls west central east. CMC and UK look quite good - moderate falls central through to the east. Looks like not a lot north of the divide.

Monday showing up a ripper of a system with possible widespread heavy falls into Tuesday. Might be a soggie one for the horsies :o
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

The Melbourne Cup is notorious for bringing heavy rain. EC certainly thinks so with 48mm here on Monday-Tuesday according to tonight's model run. GFS a more realistic 25mm.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

Thunder and Lightning here now in Northern Tasmania with heavy rain imminent
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

6Z GFS has come back on board with 5-10mm though patchy in southern Vic. Radar is starting to look promising. Odd cell popping up out west as the trough approaches. Should starting to pick up tomorrow morning, from about 6am.

The mid levels have steep lapse rates, so just a matter of tapping it.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Currently sat on 22C here at 5am :o That’s starting to get crazy warm :? Melbourne overnight minimum is around 25C atm, which I’d guess is mighty close to a November record. Might drop a bit yet. It won’t be a 24 hour record as it was fairly cool this time yesterday.

Progs are off again, or more precisely less keen. I don’t really trust them at really short range for convective rain because they take a while to spin up convection after initialisation, and the current radar shows a lot more showers and storms further north and west than the models appear to be showing for this time. Thinking scattered showers and storms, more south of the divide. EC doesn’t really have a strong preference for timing and location, with variations quite random from around a mm or two to more than 10mm.

I’d tend to expect showers and storms to pick up near the change proper (which is currently near Kangaroo Island) from late morning to late arvo. A day for watching the radar. Should see plent of sparks and hear rumbles. Could score 2 or 20mm of rain.

Early next week for a solid follow-up system. Perhaps a new thread for that one. Could be the best statewide event in a long while?? All timed to peak round Race Time :o

Btw some real heat around. Darwin yesterday hit 37.3C which equals its November record. Near 40s for much of Queensland and NSW today. Going to be quite an unpleasant heatwave for many further north.

EDIT> looking at lightning tracker plenty of embedded sports through the Mallee, Wimmer and edging into the southwest and west central. Behind this main area of showers and storms the clear area in SA looks prime for convection once the sun comes up.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Hawker »

Yes, Morning HB Looked at the radar and got a big surprise, wasn't expecting
much today. Could be a few hours good rain for me this morning.
Quite a bit of lightning on the tracker, fingers crossed.

Edit; Rumbling out there now :D

More edit; Mod to heavy rain just started
Last edited by Hawker on Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

From 10 pm to 3 am Lightning and Thunder continuously in the Tamar Valley. Tas rainfalls overnight : Legerwood 17mm, Scottsdale 16mm, Low Head 10 mm, Launceston 7mm, Hobart 3 mm
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Exploding cells with cloud top near -70c in several locations. Some serious moisture aloft near these cells. It's all about timing today.....get some sun on the ground near the trough and it will go KABOOM! East from central Melbourne looks good for timing.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Hawker »

Bah humbug it is slipping to the south, it look earlier like
it was moving more to the east. Still more to come though.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Skywalker »

Just made it back from walking the dog in time. :D

Black as a dogs guts (apologies to Rosie my Kelpie) here at work with gusty wind blowing crap everywhere.
Rain about to start any minute, should pick up 1-5mm from this lot.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

More storms in Launceston this morning, lots of lightning and heavy rain. More Lightning in the Tamar Valley in the last 12 hours than the past two years put together!!
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Re: Waiting and hoping, 26 Oct - ?

Post by Gordon »

3mm here, a start at least.

Radar looks promising for more but I'm not going to break out the champagne just yet!

(Interesting that the SWW had contacted to a narrow strip to the north of us, but BOM has now reissued for a big area on and south of the Divide.)
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