Currently sat on 22C here at 5am
That’s starting to get crazy warm
Melbourne overnight minimum is around 25C atm, which I’d guess is mighty close to a November record. Might drop a bit yet. It won’t be a 24 hour record as it was fairly cool this time yesterday.
Progs are off again, or more precisely less keen. I don’t really trust them at really short range for convective rain because they take a while to spin up convection after initialisation, and the current radar shows a lot more showers and storms further north and west than the models appear to be showing for this time. Thinking scattered showers and storms, more south of the divide. EC doesn’t really have a strong preference for timing and location, with variations quite random from around a mm or two to more than 10mm.
I’d tend to expect showers and storms to pick up near the change proper (which is currently near Kangaroo Island) from late morning to late arvo. A day for watching the radar. Should see plent of sparks and hear rumbles. Could score 2 or 20mm of rain.
Early next week for a solid follow-up system. Perhaps a new thread for that one. Could be the best statewide event in a long while?? All timed to peak round Race Time
Btw some real heat around. Darwin yesterday hit 37.3C which equals its November record. Near 40s for much of Queensland and NSW today. Going to be quite an unpleasant heatwave for many further north.
EDIT> looking at lightning tracker plenty of embedded sports through the Mallee, Wimmer and edging into the southwest and west central. Behind this main area of showers and storms the clear area in SA looks prime for convection once the sun comes up.