VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

[hillybilly]

Movement of the system today is certainly painfully slow. Convergence zone moved to our east, and now waiting for the low and trough to edge east. Had a couple of showers pop up around the Dandenongs, but missed the gauges.

Expecting a showery night and tomorrow. The showers about the west should take quite sometime to clear (but won't reach northern parts). The airmass on the west side of this low is really moist so anticipate it could well turn quite drizzly as the low edges to our east.

BTW few spots have had their wettest day of the year with this system (from BoM Tweet)...

Yesterday's showers and storms meant that Tatura Institute (29.2mm), Shepparton (22.4mm), Yarrawonga (15.4mm), Kyabram (27mm), Rochester(17.4mm), and Mangalore (23.4mm) all recorded their highest daily rainfall totals this year

[mick]

And this would be the result of all that inflow.
Sale being smashed off the map

aetff.JPG (28.06 KiB) Viewed 7418 times

[tonycynic]

Wow HB, that is shocking that the totals are so low, shows how dry it has been. Had a good couple of showers come through Doveton this afternoon and some nice rain this morning at home but will want more to keep fire season at bay.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall in Tas today: Hobart Airport 21mm, Tea Tree 18mm, Hobart 13mm, Upper Blessington 17mm, Scottsdale 15mm, Launceston 4.6mm

[Gordon]

Interesting watching the Mt William totals climb steadily to 12mm plus since 9am; gives me a little hope because there has been nothing to see in the radar 'hole' all day.

[Harley34]

Nice rain here in Ringwood between 12-1. Radar not quite picking everything? Anyway, quite a moist little system.

Nothing drenching, but I did see the post about Sale earlier in this forum.

Hoping for squall lines this summer...

[hillybilly]

Couple of heavy showers overnight with 6mm. Puts us up to 33mm for the event. Been a bit lucky with each part of the system here, with falls tending to range from 20 to 35mm locally. Pretty common we do well in unstable nwly moist steering, as the Dandenongs run north south and around Ferny Creek they jut westward producing further convergence.

The whole system is barely budging, so falls patchy and training. The convergence over Melbourne’s eastern burbs atm has been there for a few hours and moved east, then west and is now moving east again

Whole system is winding down, but still some lingering instability and high low level humidity today so more showers. The depth of instability is not that deep, so would expect rumbles.

Tomorrow’s a jump day with warmth and sunshine, then a gusty swly change for Saturday. Bit of rain with that system, though looks like peaking in the eastern half of Vic as the upper trough waves a bit. EC showing 2-10mm from Melbourne east, with highest falls around the usual wet spots in the Yarra Ranges (think Donna Buang ).

[JasmineStorm]

Just a bit of drizzle here. 35mm for the thread, 55mm for the month so far. 100 year average for October in Kyneton is 68.8mm.

There has been some unlucky spots, like where Gordon is. Melbourne's eastern suburbs gauges have slowly kept ticking over with that decaying convergence.

[snowfall]

Only about 1mm here in the last 24 hours, with most of the follow-up showers just missing these parts. Event total is 21mm, which is still a very welcome fall. MTD is 44mm, so hopefully there's a bit more to come in the next couple of weeks.

[Gordon]

There has been some unlucky spots, like where Gordon is. Melbourne's eastern suburbs gauges have slowly kept ticking over with that decaying convergence.

Great to see the good falls in so many places, but yes, it's been almost morbidly fascinating to watch us miss the rain a few kms north, and then a few kms south and west! . Just 8.5mm for the dates and 20mm mtd, so a very long way off our October average of 72mm.

September was way drier than normal too - thank goodness our wet autumn & winter have local streams and lakes in reasonable shape, but at this rate we're heading into a crash drought.

Drizzly now but doubt it will add more than a mm or two.

[hillybilly]

Thick fog and drizzle set in over our place. 4mm more since the last update

Only 3mm to 40mm for the event so should get there now. Would love to crack 50mm, which could be a chance but a bit of a long one

Very welcome. Puts the fire season on hold for a couple of weeks and gives the forest here which is looking stressed a drink.

[Adam38]

A whopping 3mm here... takes my MTD to 14mm and since Sept 1st I’m sitting on 19mm

[hillybilly]

Just when It looked like we might crack 40mm, it stopped raining Good result overall. MTD about 50mm, so about half way to average. Need one more big event before months end (hopefully EC is correct for late next weeek ).

Patchy system, and mainly delivered for the middle bit of Victoria. Tight gradients with the rain area so pretty inconsistent. Across Melbourne the lowest total I’ve heard is just 2mm near Footscray, while the the western face of the Dandenongs and the eastern middle suburbs of Melbourne saw 30-40mm.



Nice day today, then another front tomorrow. Looks like 4-10mm, mainly east of Melbourne. The upper trough sharpens up as it approaches even though the surface system is pretty uninspiring. Ends up giving coastal NSW another soaking (the El Niño signal is very weak on the NSW coast, so not a surprise to see them picking up good falls).

[Wilko]

Looking ahead AccessG for the last couple of runs and now GFS is showing an inland low racing across from WA next Wed before dipping and deepening over Vic

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting BoM map HB. Some reasonable widespread falls but still some unlucky ones.

Yes Wilko, models are unusually aligned now a week out from the event. At the 144 hour point from the last runs, EC,UK,GFS & Access G all have the surface and upper lows in similar positions over W.A.

The EC ensemble of 51 members is still not quite there past this point but if that lines up tonight, I think this could be game on for next week

[JasmineStorm]

Warm northerly and 25c here now. Just extending the thread 2 days to catch this trough and rain band coming through tomorrow morning. Access C is upgrading a little more centrally with a decent drink for dry areas in the east.

[hillybilly]

Thanks Jasmine. This upper trough tomorrow could well surprised. There’s quite a decent right exit on the jet providing focussed divergence over east central Vic to eastern Vic. EC, CMC and GFS3 all showing locally 10-20mm.

Further north much of NSW is painted red with severe storms possible on the severe weather guidance Coastal area could well see locally 100mm going off the guidance

Am down in Walkerville where today felt quite tropical under a easterly flow. The nearby AWS saw a dew point approach 15C.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

just in the nic of time, washing in, and then moisture.
maybe 2 am..

[hillybilly]

Woken by heavy rain down here at Walkerville. Would guess about 5mm so far (I forgot to empty the manual gauge ).

2mm and climbing back in Ferny Creek. Radar looks quite good, for a rainy few hours.

Btw was 20.4C at Ferny Creek at midnight. Now down to 9C. One of those upside down days for temperature

[JasmineStorm]

It has a little bit of instability in the uppers. Some sparks to the NW and NE of here in the last hour or so. Couple of mm’s so far, hopefully get a few more with this thickening band coming in.