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VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

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hillybilly
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

Just shy of 10mm here now. Next band of heavy showers inbound and should be here within minutes. Few spots in the middle burbs are in the 10-20mm range so locally adding up nicely.

Radars quite dynamic so hard to pick exactly how this will unfold, but does look to be edging east.

Very thick fog here atm.

Just got a rumble from the cell developing just north of here.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Some good rain here at the moment, though only up to 3mm so far. Hopefully a bit more to come over the next hour or so with some heavier stuff to the north (slowly edging eastwards). Still unstable to the west of this band with fresh storms developing east of Port Campbell and northwest of Ballarat (a little line potentially forming).
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Jake Smethurst wrote: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:59 pm Some good rain here at the moment, though only up to 3mm so far. Hopefully a bit more to come over the next hour or so with some heavier stuff to the north (slowly edging eastwards). Still unstable to the west of this band with fresh storms developing east of Port Campbell and northwest of Ballarat (a little line potentially forming).
New mini convergence zone :)
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Lots of moisture aloft to support those new cells out west
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by snowfall »

Tracking the rain sure is tricky on the radar at the moment. The band is bulging in places, but overall it has definitely edged east. The west side of the band was just east of Ballarat a couple of hours ago. Though now it appears that further development is happening to the west of the band. Just under 15mm here and light rain.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

Back to moderate to heavy rain here now, and passed 12mm.

Wierd that EC update has no rain here this evening :? Goes to show how complex this set up is when the best model struggles to place the rain 6-9 hours out. Other models including GFS have a much better handle and continues showers through east central through eastern Vic for much of the night.

Btw tomorrow is also showing some promise. The parent low back near Mt Gambier rotates up over us. It will be quite unstable through the arvo, with more moderate falls, particularly near the ranges and south.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by occluded »

A tick over 7mm here so far, quite heavy at times. Probably not the best time to unblock the gutter going to the rainwater tank :)
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by tonycynic »

It’s only blocked when water is flowing. Just done the same. Lots of slow release pipes so the trees are getting a good drink. Loving it but will be happy to see more tomorrow. Any ideas how much for the Dandenongs?
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Didjman »

that line out west has sparks!
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by snowfall »

Absolutely pouring down here now and the wind has picked up. Looks like the band is splitting in two, at least for now.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Wilko »

That line out west is fantastic to see develop
Quick question
what exactly is the convergence zone ?
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Wilko wrote: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:53 pm That line out west is fantastic to see develop
Quick question
what exactly is the convergence zone ?
Generally speaking Wilko, where more air is entering an area than actually leaving it (at a specific level). It causes vertical motion, typically upward forcing if it's lower-level convergence (the air has to go/leave somewhere). And if we have upwards forcing we can get development of showers and storms if other conditions are present. If you look at the wind obs, you can see the northeasterly winds meeting the northwesterly winds - a zone of sorts. Hopefully that explains it a little … and others feel free to add or explain better :P
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Macedonian »

27mm in my gauge, a lovely rainy spring day. Very happy.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

27mm in my gauge, a lovely rainy spring day. Very happy.
You’re on track to be the one spot in Vic to get above average this month (though hopefully we all get there). Lucky for your area :D your MTD must be near 80mm now :?:

On 14mm here now. In a hole, but so much going on with the radar so could start again any moment.

Those storms around west of Ballarat are dumpers. A private weather station under the band near the western highway has clocked a quick 10mm.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Onetahuti »

Just home to note 14.2mm on the AWS, very happy about that as has been the custom of late plenty potential in the forecast but little received.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Wilko »

Jake Smethurst wrote: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:01 pm
Wilko wrote: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:53 pm That line out west is fantastic to see develop
Quick question
what exactly is the convergence zone ?
Generally speaking Wilko, where more air is entering an area than actually leaving it (at a specific level). It causes vertical motion, typically upward forcing if it's lower-level convergence (the air has to go/leave somewhere). And if we have upwards forcing we can get development of showers and storms if other conditions are present. If you look at the wind obs, you can see the northeasterly winds meeting the northwesterly winds - a zone of sorts. Hopefully that explains it a little … and others feel free to add or explain better :P

Awesome explanation
Thanks heaps Jake
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by snowfall »

Rain has stopped, but cracked 20mm with that recent heavy burst. Amazing line of storms out west.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Gordon »

A meagre 4mm here so far; hoping for something more respectable from the 'surprise' band just to the west - if it holds together.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Sean »

Cruddy result so far. Meh
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

not Complaining about 8.4mm
buuttttttt.. couldnt we get this every few days for a month..
good to hear of the other larger totals..
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