VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

[Horts]

Liking the look of the 4pm Storm Probability!

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[StratoBendigo]

I still reckon it's all going to happen East of here. The cells forming now to our NW are very thin and fast moving.

[StratoBendigo]

Storms are starting to fire in a line between Charlton - Balranald - Wilcannia. The rainband that did next to nothing overnight is clearing out to our East.

[Gordon]

Thar she blows:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Central, Mallee, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:21 pm Tuesday, 16 October 2018.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorms are forming along a slow moving trough of low pressure in the eastern Mallee and are likely to move south southeastward and strengthen this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area and although a lesser risk, large hailstones are also possible in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Swan Hill, Kerang, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine and Daylesford.

[StratoBendigo]

Thar she blows:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Central, Mallee, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:21 pm Tuesday, 16 October 2018.
Weather Situation: Thunderstorms are forming along a slow moving trough of low pressure in the eastern Mallee and are likely to move south southeastward and strengthen this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area and although a lesser risk, large hailstones are also possible in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Swan Hill, Kerang, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine and Daylesford.

Trough line is inching across and just sitting to our West. We're either going to get a storm this afternoon, or end up with the biggest fizzer in living memory.

Incidentally, Bendigo AWS YTD rainfall is just 241mm. If Nov and Dec are dry, that could make this year our 3rd driest since 1862 (only 1982 and 1938 were drier). 1967, 1994 and 2002 ended up with 278, 277, and 271 mm respectfully so it could be in that ball-park.

[Wilko]

Ok here we go

[Supercellimpact]

Due to the slow moving nature of the trough areas could rack up some nice totals.

Storms heading down into the Bendigo area soon, keen.

[JasmineStorm]

Water vapour increasing in the mid levels from Swan Hill to Ballarat, Dew Point around 14c here , it’s starting to pop up here

[Jake Smethurst]

Some further good development east of that trough with areas of showers and thunderstorm now forming east and southeast of Bendigo, plus further action west of Echuca still in motion. Should be a very productive afternoon for central parts, obviously not everyone can get a storm but plenty of risk out there at the moment. All severe phenomena, especially flash flooding if storms train over a particular area. Should flatten into more thundery rain areas later.

On a side note, the AU model is playing funny buggers for Sunday … this is the 24-hour accumulated rainfall to 8pm Sunday. Only model indicating anything at all so I'd say it's some sort of weird run and will change, but thought I'd pop here for reference sake (and maybe a laugh).

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[StratoBendigo]

^^ Access-G must be smoking something weird.

Dark clouds to our Northwest now. It might just miss us again.

[StratoBendigo]

^^ Access-G must be smoking something weird.

Dark clouds to our Northwest now. It might just miss us again.

The region between Ivanhoe and the Hay Plain in NSW seems to be experiencing a whopper of a storm atm.

[snowfall]

Brief showery bursts moving through here at the moment, but so brief that they're struggling to register in the gauge. Only 0.3mm so far. Just heard thunder though and the sky is getting darker.

[James]

not much lightning activity...yet, there was a lot last night then it all died

[JasmineStorm]

Sparks and rumbles, both CG and CC's. Right of the edge of these multicell clusters. 11mm and moving up so far for the day.

[StratoBendigo]

Entree of a few mm just then. Main course is about to hit....

[Supercellimpact]

Heavy Rain here now

[Skywalker]

Work & home storm shields are in full swing, everything is just missing us to the west going by the radar.

[StratoBendigo]

Heavy Rain here now

Just in time for school and kinder pickup! Gutters overflowing too...

[Andy]

I thought an hour ago that things were moving a bit to far East for us here but I now live in hope. Stalling or perhaps things are moving the other way slightly ATM. Either way very interesting day. Had a few heavy showers, thunder and lightning but nothing spectacular yet.

[Gordon]

I still reckon it's all going to happen East of here. The cells forming now to our NW are very thin and fast moving.

Reverse psychology - good plan .

Looks like our challenge here is the storms making it over the ranges...