Series of fast moving fronts the next week, with mild air sweeping down ahead of each of them. First is on Sunday, second late Tuesday then third around late Friday. Very mild to warm Tuesday and again around Friday. Could well approach early season records, though probably fall just short (Melbourne early season record is 26.8C).
Not a lot of rain, just the odd shower at this stage with systems moisture starved.
A mild 12C in FC yesterday with a mix of sun and cloud. Today looks similarly mild, but more cloud and maybe a shower.
Warm day on Tuesday. 850Ts get to around 12C over Melbourne and near 15C in the northwest. Will see a run at 30C in Mildura etc and Melbourne and surrounds likely to see locally near 25C. Windy and dry so will start to sap the moisture
Not really seeing meaningful rain in the next ten days. Something might sneak up, but fronts are flattening and tending to lack moisture and cyclonic curvature.
Misty drizzle here this morning. Nothing in the gauge.
Geez tomorrow looks warm. 850Ts spike to 14-15C over Melbourne late arvo. In theory that could see a run at 30C, but looks like hottest air misses the peak solar heating so timing not quite there.
Not that warm today in the end with cloud hanging around. Scrapped up to 12.2C here late arvo.
Tomorrow looks warm and windy.
EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks
hillybilly wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:35 pm
EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks
The spring rollercoaster... Still on the cool side up here so looking forward to at least some warmth (in moderation)!
The garbage northerly winds are back after perfect calm conditions yesterday.
This period of sustained winds will really accelerate the drying process out here in the western desert, especially with no proper rain in sight.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Warmest air coming late today so missed the peak solar heating. Nice day around Melbourne though winds are nasty. Peaked at 17.4C here so a degree or two cooler than I was expecting. 31C just across the border in SA, but looks like Vic peaked at 29.9C. Really dry air through the Wimmera and Malle which will not be good for the crops
Shower or two tonight, but not expecting more than a mm or so.
My lawns have really browned off today and have become crunchy underfoot in spots...
Not surprised. This dry is creeping and will hit in a hurry with the warmer weather
Front came through but not a drop of rain. That’s a worry. I expect summer fronts to be rain free at times but fronts in the middle of spring Dew point is stuck near 0C so dry air.
Stronger front showing up for Saturday, but will again be moisture starved.
GFS 00Z showing the coldest 500 hPa temp this year over central areas and snowing in Hamilton Saturday afternoon. Brutal cold shot if it verifies. Moisture @700 hPa has also upgraded in the last 24 hours.
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Cool to mild mostly sunny one in FC with a max of 12C.
Starting to get mildly interested in Saturday though would like EC to come back on board. Looks cold, but not so sure on precip. Gfs and CMC are producing decent rain in southern and mountain areas, but not EC (on the latest run). The temperature difference across the front is quite stunning with 850Ts in the mid to high teens on one side and around -4 to -5C on the other side.
Wonder if we could see some obscure stats for difference between max and min on consecutive days in parts of NSW and eastern Vic
Both EC and GFS showing quite an upgrade for the weekend. The models both have 850Ts falling to around -5 to -6C during the evening. Of course, the models might decide to back off...
The September record for Melbourne appears to be -5.6C in 1959. Of course, if there isn't a balloon flight at the time of the coldest air, then we won't have an observation.
I do wonder if we could see some spectacular temperature differences between the Saturday maximum and Sunday minimum in eastern Victoria and southern NSW (think of it as the DTR offset by half a day).
Unfortunately, I'm away on Saturday so won't get to see it
Access R has dropped a 524 thickness bubble over eastern parts of Melbourne, the Dandenong's and Yarra Valley on Saturday evening with moisture at 700 hPa. That would put snow in places like Monbulk if it verifies.
EC has the upper trough getting a polar injection from 70 degrees south, over the Antartic continent.
It seems like this is the coldest air to hit Victoria since 2016 if the models are correct.