The difference between this system and all the other really cold outbreaks this autumn/winter, appears to be moisture WITH the coldest air. It'll be interesting to see if that pans out, but we're less than 48 hours out now so the predictions are becoming more credible.
Yes SB, the range normally shreds these events and Yes Gordon, this seems to have moisture... but hard to really tell at the moment.
The multi pronged cold trough attack on the latest BoM MSLP is starting to have that July 17th / 18th 2007 look about it except with a deeper surface low breeding the troughs
Edit: BoM becoming very bullish in their 4.20pm forecast commentary for Sunday. 'Snowfalls on the Dandenong ranges above 500 metres during the morning' . No more 'possible' in the wording.
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I think I will head up to Trentham Sunday morning to hopefully see some snow. I have never seen
snow falling in Australia before.
I will never forget the snow event in London Feb 2009 (lived there 2006-2013) when a so called “ Thames Streamer”
dumped 30cm of snow (measured on top of wheelie bin) and brought the whole city to a shutdown!! I even witnessed
thunder snow that night.
Thunder snow caught on live tv from that same night.
Just sitting here waiting for the event to start. Progs holding.
I'd like to see the 850Ts a degree colder, but they look pretty good. Freezing level drops to about 900m Sunday morning, and below the cloud deck the DPs are low so evaporative cooling will allow snow to fall to lower levels. The precip looks about as good as it gets with cold outbreaks.
Does look like one of the better chances here for a number of years, but Melbourne's weather finds many ways to tease and frustrate
Front coming into southeast SA producing bumper falls already
7mm this morning and temperature into the 4s. More or less running as expected. Rain a bit spare in northern areas and the western plain which is a shame. OK falls along the coastal strip and once you get near the ranges.
Increasingly cold, wet and windy now for the next 24-36 hours. 850Ts down to -4 to -5C depending on which is your preferred model with freezing levels dropping to around 800m. Should see snow to 400 to 600m depending on the exact details.
Does look very wet for central areas with good streams picking up on the Bays. Big falls for the ranges, but northern parts mainly showers so a bit hit miss. Thinking there could be some nasty frost too, depending on how quickly the wind drop out on Sunday in northern areas.
8mm here overnight, now to see what happens later and overnight.
I will be driving through Daylesford tomorrow morning about 8.30, it will
be interesting to see if there is any snow about.
1.7mm overnight here. Currently 9c. The westerly probably won’t do us too many favours today, but looking forward to it getting colder and great to see snow potential to lower levels over the next 24 hours. Snow is unlikely here given the elevation, but some sleet might be a chance. We had a brief sleety shower last weekend.
Long time between posts!! Unfortunately full time study and work gets in the way.
Lancefield sits at 500m so fingers crossed for some snow flurries. It snowed on two occasions last year which was a pleasant surprise, but we haven't been close to it at all this year.
Macca2395 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:59 pm
Lancefield sits at 500m so fingers crossed for some snow flurries.
I remember a day back around 1993 when there was 2 inches of snow between Gisborne and Woodend (Driving faster than walking pace had you off the road). Woodend to Lancefield was all white with the only black being tree trunks, fence posts and the road. Never seen anything close to it since.
First precip of the day since 9am and it fell as snow. No rain before just straight into snow the same as last saturday.
Temp is dropping here but my pws lags a little under a coldie. 4C now down from a high of 5.2C an hour ago when the sun was out.
Snow hammering down now and im in the middle of dealing with a big burn pile haha. Its cold.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
! 
