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VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-15 2018

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StratoBendigo
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just 2mm here overnight. Blue skies now.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Macedonian »

Some really full on snow periods with a little settling when the temp dipped to 1C but looks like its over now.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 »

About 17mm yesterday and today so far, with about 13 of that in this morning's rainband with quite heavy showers at times. No hail.

Still a steady stream of precipitation coming through the next few hours.

Cold with a maximum of 10 so far. 8 at the moment.

Cranbourne seems to be in the 'sweet spot' today.

Shame the cold outbreak that was predicted won't eventuate, this time
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hillybilly
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly »

6.4C for a max here today with a few showers. Just on 4mm in the gauge. Just too westerly for us, with 10 to 20mm about 5km southeast of us.

Big storm surge on the bay which peaked at near 50cm this arvo. Going to be some very high water on the coming high tide. Lucky the surge seems to have peaked, as that would have put the bay very close to the highest water on level :o
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Gordon »

Wild day today, another 11mm of rain/hail/sleet/snow, bringing us to 16mm since Thursday, so a handy fall.

Some wet snow falling in patches, but not cold enough to really get going (not surprised you got some Macedonian!). Nasty wind until early afternoon. Temp range 2-6C. Brrrr!
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by snowfall »

Only 4mm here today, but it felt like winter with the cold wind and occasional shower. Currently 6.8c here now.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Macedonian »

Top temp of 3.9C at my place today.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 »

23mm for event in the manual gauge. Not surprised we received that much. Looked ok. Shame about that rainband last night, but that alone produced 4mm.

Frequent showera has kept the temp down between 7 and 8 degrees the whole afternoon pretty much.

No signs of drought down here with plenty of green grass and flooded paddocks. The situation ofcourse, is very different inland, with parts of NSW I'd say being in just about crisis.
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hillybilly
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly »

The temperatures been rising here through the night as weak warm air advection kicks in. This is also pushing the showers ever so slightly north so we are starting to get back into the stream. Got fog and spitty showers here now.

Had 6mm last 24 hours, so event total just over 10mm. Bumper little system for the Yarra Valley and South Gippslands where a few spots have scored 25-50mm since it started (though most of Vic has not faired so well).

BTW check out the storm surge on the bay yesterday. That's about 50cm at its peak turning the low tide into a high tide. It missed the high tide, otherwise we could have seen the record water level approached or exceeded.
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Here's a photo from Mornington of what the Bay looked like.
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PS strange little system showing up for Wednesday. Upper trough and mini low tries to come straight up through the high. EC has this stalling just near the west coast with local 20-40mm falls, while GFS pushes it inland. Not at all confident that we will get anything, but fingers and toes are all crossed :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 »

28mm in the gauge for the event, with about 6mm falling early this morning.

Great result down here so far. Still more to come by the look of it. Temperature has been stuck at 8 degrees for just about 20 hours
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

GFS is firming up for a upper cold pool over Vic on Wed-Thur. Not a lot a moisture in it though from what I can see. Then warm South-Easterlies for several days afterward...
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 »

Over 30mm down here now for the event with constant heavy drizzle the last 2 hours.

Melbourne Water rainfall site confirms the figure.

26 hours of very frequent showers / rain periods.

These are the winters i used to remember
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Dane »

22.6mm's in the 24 hours to 9am here after 5.8mm's to 9am yesterday still showery with another 4.6mm's since 9am.
Event total now 33mm's much more than I was expecting and certainly in the sweet spot here. :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly »

Thick fog here all day with showers and drizzle. Had a further 8mm, so bit over 14mm (or about 20mm for the thread). Looks quite wet for about 12 to 24 hours so hopefully end the thread with a decent total in the end :) Going to be a bumper total in the end for the outer Yarra and southeast burbs which have done really well out of this.

EC flipped for Wednesday and now has a decent upper low and weak surface low come straight up from the south over Vic and through the middle of the high. It eventually forms a strong east coast low. EC got locally 10-20mm as does GFS but Progs too jumpy to be confident about the details. Looks like the type of event that has very slow bands of showers which train over the same spots so some areas could well do well while nearby gets little or none. Snowline is low under those showers dropping to locally 600m so could be some local low level flurries.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Gordon »

Another 5.5mm of almost constant drizzle/ light rain today so 21.5mm for the 3 days - good result and still a bit to come. Locally some totals close to 30mm.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly »

Another 5.5mm of almost constant drizzle/ light rain today so 21.5mm for the 3 days - good result and still a bit to come. Locally some totals close to 30mm
Same here. Took a while to get going this event but once it started it hasn’t really stopped.

Got thick fog here atm and heavy drizzle. Looks to be slowly clearing, but could well last for most of today. Further 21mm since this time yesterday so event nearing 35mm. Some crazy gradients in total with the northern part of the Yarra Valley showing only a couple of mm’s while eastern parts have had more than 50mm and locally near 100mm. We sit in the gradient from light to heavy falls.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by stevco123 »

37mm for the event. Haven't seen a winter event like this in a few years.

Constant drizzle and low cloud, heavy at times.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by Dane »

Another 9.6mm's in the 24 hours to 9am taking the event total to 38mm's.
MTD is now 48.4mm's. Still a few drizzly showers around.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

Wednesday-Thursday's wandering cold pool is still a goer. I doubt we'll get anything more than 5mm though.

4mm for the event so far (since Thursday night).
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: July 3-12

Post by hillybilly »

Cold foggy one in FC with drizzle most the day. Had a couple more mms. Quite thick atm so still adding up.

Drove out to Sale today north side of the Strzeleki Range then down past Yarra to Walkerville on the south side. Can really see the contrast developing the last few months between areas which have done ok and those that have missed out. Some water in the paddocks to about Moe with decent flows in the creeks. The area around Sale looks awful. The Avon River is empty except puddles and the paddocks south of the town are bare and brown. Trees dropping branches. Then back towards Foster it’s green and becomes quite water logged again. You can see this in the rainfall deciles for the last few months.

Image

Little low showing still for Wednesday into Thursday. Thinking the areas from about Mt Gambier to about Bendigo looks to be the best chance.
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