VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018

[Gordon]

Another 17mm since 9am yesterday brings us to exactly 50mm for the event and 56mm mtd.

Maybe a mm or two left in this system, but regardless, a good outcome - upper end of the model predictions for us. (20mm from June average here too JS.)

[snowfall]

Drizzling here this morning. Had more heavy rain yesterday evening, which brought the event total to 74.7mm. Definitely at the upper end of model predictions too.

[Skywalker]

This has to be one of the wettest winter events I've ever experienced in my 10 years of living in this area. It is still coming down back home as I type. We seem to be right in the middle of that stream.

Was forced to walk the dog last night in-between showers (still got caught though). There is so much water laying around. The clay soils just can't cope.

[Macedonian]

Event total so far at work in Macedon is 65mm.
At home on Mt Macedon 80mm precisely.

[Didjman]

Just tipped out 62mm for here. Not a bad drop

[Dane]

Good to see you guys in the Western and Northern suburbs getting some good rain from this system.
Had 23.7mm's to 9am yesterday but it dried up after that, only 0.3mm's in the last 24 hours and nice and sunny
here this morning. MTD is now 52.5mm's - Ave is 69mm's.
Looks dry now until about Friday.

[stevco123]

Coolangatta recorded its coldest June minimum ever at 0.6.

A 'global warming' alarmist's worst nightmare that surely is.

0.4mm here last 24 hours.

[StratoBendigo]

Dry and sunny here. Was 1 degC at dawn, now a rather balmy 12 degC.

As for Queensland - a rather chilly -4.9c at Oakey this morning.

[Macedonian]

Coolangatta recorded its coldest June minimum ever at 0.6.

A 'global warming' alarmist's worst nightmare that surely is.

0.4mm here last 24 hours.

Haha! That's what everyone will say.

The GC often gets really cold nights. Fine clear winter days mean cold nights.
Cold air drainage down from the hinterland river valleys and plateaux mean that frost is fairly common.
Yet all the people who think its a hoax will be all over an event like this.

[Macedonian]

It was something like -4C the other morning on the Atherton Tableland as well.

[stevco123]

It was something like -4C the other morning on the Atherton Tableland as well.

Very true. This cold mass had a direct hit from the right direction.

[Macedonian]

Ahhh Fiendsland! Beautiful one day, colder than melbourne ever gets the next

[stevco123]

Down to 10 degrees at 4pm. Gonna be a cold one tonight unless the cloud spoils it

[Sean]

Coolangatta recorded its coldest June minimum ever at 0.6.

A 'global warming' alarmist's worst nightmare that surely is.

0.4mm here last 24 hours.

Steve, you're truly an ignorant man indeed. I would direct your attention toward the fact that glaciers are retreating to higher altitudes, the fact that the sea has risen, the fact that earth's global average temperature has risen, the fact that our own state of Victoria has seen longer heat waves, with temperatures at 45c across multiples centres far more times in one summer than should be seen in 5 years, but it means nothing to you whatsoever. Because contrarians like you are stubborn, pathetic fools.

For everyone that visits this board, this same man, who thinks global warming isn't happening despite the wealth of evidence we observe and record, tried purporting the 'contrail' conspiracy sh*t despite no evidence whatsoever. Why? Just more contrarian BS.

You don't double the atmospheric Co2 ppm without consequence, people. And that's what WE have done (not to mention the increase in atmospheric methane).. I mean, do people even understand how the atmosphere works? Greenhouse gases are called "greenhouse" gasses for a reason... Greenhouses get hot because they trap more photons. Well, more Co2 and methane in the atmosphere means that less photons escape into space, thus those photons introduce their energy (heat) into our systems, e.g. the ocean, melting ice, rock, etc. It's simple physics. Also, Co2 doesn't just trap more heat, it acidifies the oceans, making it harder for the bottom of the food chain to build their calcium carbonate structures.

It's true that we don't know exactly what's going to happen. We can't be 100% sure if some places will be drier while others wetter. What we do know, however, is that warmer temperatures melt snow and ice and cause the sea to expand (again, simple physics). What does this mean? Well, some animals will go extinct, while others will adapt like they always have. HOWEVER, our coastline cities can't get up and walk away from storm surges or advancing water, which means we may end up spending trillions trying to save old infrastructure INSTEAD of spending that on new infrastructure or technologies (think space, think medicine).

The oceans rise and fall and have throughout history, hence we find limestone and sea life fossils far inland, hence, people could walk between continents in the past. And one of the reasons behind why sea levels rise and fall is the composition of the atmosphere, how much heat our thermal blanket is holding on to.

Don't be fooled by a couple of cold days or a broken record.. Because when parts of North America and Europe suffered through that cold snap, Arctic temperatures were way above average, meaning that cold air was merely displaced. It wasn't 'extra' cold.

We have one damn home. No other planet in the solar system is habitable, which means everyone should be a environmentalist. You don't have to do much, just use a little less electricity. Buy a car with low emissions. Only vote for a government that is either investing in renewables or is going to actively save money for when fusion plants become a reality.

I know some members of this board are of the right/conservatives. So how about you 'conserve' our g'damn planet and its CURRENT climatology, because that's the climatology we have built our society around, that's the climatology our biological ecosystems have evolved to inhabit. If you don't, we lose a lot more money in the long run, and it will take millions of years for lost biodiversity to increase.

[Horts]

Coolangatta recorded its coldest June minimum ever at 0.6.

A 'global warming' alarmist's worst nightmare that surely is.

0.4mm here last 24 hours.

Steve, you're truly an ignorant man indeed. I would direct your attention toward the fact that glaciers are retreating to higher altitudes, the fact that the sea has risen, the fact that earth's global average temperature has risen, the fact that our own state of Victoria has seen longer heat waves, with temperatures at 45c across multiples centres far more times in one summer than should be seen in 5 years, but it means nothing to you whatsoever. Because contrarians like you are stubborn, pathetic fools.

For everyone that visits this board, this same man, who thinks global warming isn't happening despite the wealth of evidence we observe and record, tried purporting the 'contrail' conspiracy sh*t despite no evidence whatsoever. Why? Just more contrarian BS.

You don't double the atmospheric Co2 ppm without consequence, people. And that's what WE have done (not to mention the increase in atmospheric methane).. I mean, do people even understand how the atmosphere works? Greenhouse gases are called "greenhouse" gasses for a reason... Greenhouses get hot because they trap more photons. Well, more Co2 and methane in the atmosphere means that less photons escape into space, thus those photons introduce their energy (heat) into our systems, e.g. the ocean, melting ice, rock, etc. It's simple physics. Also, Co2 doesn't just trap more heat, it acidifies the oceans, making it harder for the bottom of the food chain to build their calcium carbonate structures.

It's true that we don't know exactly what's going to happen. We can't be 100% sure if some places will be drier while others wetter. What we do know, however, is that warmer temperatures melt snow and ice and cause the sea to expand (again, simple physics). What does this mean? Well, some animals will go extinct, while others will adapt like they always have. HOWEVER, our coastline cities can't get up and walk away from storm surges or advancing water, which means we may end up spending trillions trying to save old infrastructure INSTEAD of spending that on new infrastructure or technologies (think space, think medicine).

The oceans rise and fall and have throughout history, hence we find limestone and sea life fossils far inland, hence, people could walk between continents in the past. And one of the reasons behind why sea levels rise and fall is the composition of the atmosphere, how much heat our thermal blanket is holding on to.

Don't be fooled by a couple of cold days or a broken record.. Because when parts of North America and Europe suffered through that cold snap, Arctic temperatures were way above average, meaning that cold air was merely displaced. It wasn't 'extra' cold.

We have one damn home. No other planet in the solar system is habitable, which means everyone should be a environmentalist. You don't have to do much, just use a little less electricity. Buy a car with low emissions. Only vote for a government that is either investing in renewables or is going to actively save money for when fusion plants become a reality.

I know some members of this board are of the right/conservatives. So how about you 'conserve' our g'damn planet and its CURRENT climatology, because that's the climatology we have built our society around, that's the climatology our biological ecosystems have evolved to inhabit. If you don't, we lose a lot more money in the long run, and it will take millions of years for lost biodiversity to increase.

Well said Sean, one of the best posts I've read on this forum.

If I could like this post 1000 times I would.

[stevco123]

Hi Sean, i would say that perhaps we are just going back to normal weather, if someone knows how to define normal. Don't forget only 2000 years ago there were vineyards in northern Scotland plus the many examples of warmer weather than today.

I don't want to dwell too much on this topic as everyone is entitled to an opinion just like you and I, but I'm yet to see concrete evidence of this warming being man made.

Our dams were supposed to be dry by 2013. As far as i know they're doing ok.

Let's leave this topic at that, as we don't want to create a situation that the weatherzone forum found itself in due to a couple of over passionate people.

[hillybilly]

There's a really good website which tracks daily temperatures across the whole planet. It's not prefect, but it's pretty good. It uses a 1981-2010 average (which throws away the warming from 1890 to 1981) but that doesn't actually matter a whole lot at this scale because the trend is so strong now anyway You can see all the charts at http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

Anyway, here's the global map for yesterday. The planet was +0.4C above the 1981-2010 average. Some bits are red and others blue. I watch these charts often and have never seen a chart with more blue than read. It would be nice to see this happen, but just doesn't any more



BTW best to take the climate change discussion elsewhere. Every model we use everyday includes climate change. So does every observation.

[hillybilly]

No more rain today in FC so finished the event on ~65mm. Good result - on the upper end of the models. MTD is (about) 90mm now so not far of our average. Good event for Vic overall - really lucky actually as the link with the tropics was pretty feeble, which meant areas further north didn't do so well.

Here's the rainfall for the week which shows it focused on Victoria.



Hoping we might see a frost tonight. We haven't had a proper frost at our place for two years, but the combination of colder uppers, light southerlies, a clear sky etc means today is a good chance.

[hillybilly]

Just spotted this photo from Guyra in northern NSW. Not far from the Queensland border so not out of the question that the odd flurry made it as far north in the border ranges.

Often think a spot like Guyra must have one of the more interesting climates in OZ with lots of storms, humid summers and occasional significant winter snows.

[Gordon]

Great photo. It's a remarkable area. I've stood at Point Lookout in the snow gums (though not snow) and been able to make out the subtropical coast below with banana plantations etc just south of Coffs Harbour!

At Ebor just down the road, I was caught out in a thunderstorm in thick fog. Quite disconcerting...

Too soon for a new thread for later in the coming weekend/ early next week?