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VIC - Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25 2018

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Didjman
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Didjman »

I tipped out 13mm from the Manual gauge yesterday. Nothing since as yet.
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snowfall
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by snowfall »

Not a lot going on here. We've picked up a few more millimetres since the deluge last weekend, but the main action for rain is clearly in the east at the moment. Otherwise, cool, overcast, and feeling wintry. Maximum temps the past week have mostly been around 10-12c. So far sitting on 83.6mm for the month, which is a good turnaround from the past few months. Maybe a little more rain to come later today.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo »

Access-G looks real nice for next weekend. Very cold. Other forecast models don't agree.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by snowfall »

Just looking at year to date rainfall. We're currently on 237.8mm. It's below average by my best estimates, but not severely below, despite the Feb-April mini-drought and thanks to a relatively wet January and May. What we've been missing though is north-west cloud bands.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Dane »

Another mild night here only got down to 11.0c.
0.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am MTD now 58.1mm's Monthly average is 61.5mm's.
Looks like a bit more this afternoon so hopefully that will push me past the monthly average.
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Didjman
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Didjman »

Radar is thickening nicely in the SW corner!
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by stevco123 »

About to get ignored by the incoming band. Splitting to my north and south... again... <sigh>
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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly »

Rapid 3-4mm across Ferny Creek on that band. Makes for nearly 5 mm for the day (since 9am). Our MTD has just cracked 110mm so about on the long term average now :D

Hope to go well past in by June 1 and catch up on all that rain that went missing in February, March and April...
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly »

The wet just keeps going in the Dandenongs. 10mm more overnight, and MTD near 120mm, so a bit above average now.

Showers and drizzle going to be slow to clear this week, with GFS and EC not really clearing until about Thursday arvo.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just a few spots of rain last night. We're still running below average for May. Perhaps a rainy cold front might be on the cards right at the end of Month if Access-G is on the money.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Macedonian »

Hardly anything here over tge last week as far as precip goes.
The most notable thing has been no max higher than 10C since last tuesday. Still feels quite mild though. No really cold nights.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Dane »

5.2mm's here overnight just gets me past the Monthly average.
Not a lot more this week though.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by snowfall »

2.7mm overnight and today, mostly light showers and drizzle. The good thing about this pattern for now is we’re not having crazy warm temperatures. Might even be a close to average month for maximum temps, though it depends what happens once this high moves out of the bight.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Sean »

Will I be banned for calling NZ out for being a low pressure wh**e... So jealous of their constant fronts and rain :(

As expected, that disappointing cut-off didn't have a huge impact in this area. It greened up the grass, but the moisture isn't deeper than a few cms. So hopefully we get some more rain while the surface is still wet..

Third or fourth year in a row now that the deciduous trees dropped green leaves, or lost them to heat stress before autumn was even upon us. Really hoping winter rains eventually set in, because we're only sitting on 180mm so far.. Had over 300mm by this time last year, and this year was a stinker heat wise.

The synoptics were showing a few decent fronts, but it looks like they're going to dive, barely clipping even Tasmania.

Here's hoping this string of dominating highs weakens :roll:
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly »

Drizzle the past 24 hours with nearly 2mm more. Looks to be clearing up slowly now, but light falls for another 24-36 hours.

Progs showing the pattern becoming much more progressive by the weekend with more frequent fronts.

Hopefully this fills in some of the rain that has gone missing this month (and autumn). It has been a very dismal season for almost all of OZ, not helped by temps which are near record warm for January to May.

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly »

More solid falls through east central and coastal parts in the seemingly never ending swly flow. Just on 8mm more here, with plenty of spots around Melbourne showing 5-10mm.

Thick fog and drizzle here this morning and GFS, which I tend to find is the best model for showers, has the wet continuing until Thursday arvo. My MTD is now over 130mm while our local AWS is nearing 150mm. Most has fallen in the last two weeks with no completely fine day during that sequence so starting to become quite a notable wet spell. Great turn around from the awful Feb->Apr here. Meanwhile WA faces another day of summer like warmth and even some bushfires :? (But big front for them tomorrow).

Not long to wait for the next system, which is showing up across the models for late Sunday or Monday. Looks like a more traditional frontal sequence with a decent burst of cold air.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Gordon »

It's been an exceptional run of sunless wet weather for us too. The only completely fine day for a fortnight was the 14th. Recorded 14mm for the dates but feels like a lot more :? (I worry that my plastic-funnel Nylex under-measures constant fine drizzle?)

Anyway, according to the Nylex, up to 94mm for May, which makes it our second-wettest May in our 22 years here. Meanwhile, my brother in Anglesea sends me pics of day after day of blue skies!
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by jimmyay »

Yes, I think this is the longest constantly cloudy /overcast period for a year or two.
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Wilko »

On the most recent run AccessG showing that cold front due Tuesday absolutely dropping out to a Major Low.. will be interesting to keep an eye on this
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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly »

Foggy with light drizzle this morning (again). 1.4mm in the gauge. My MTD is just shy of 140mm now.

But... I just checked my long term average here and it is 140mm. Goes to show that while it feels like a pretty “miserable” few weeks it’s just pretty normal weather for May :o

Progs wavering a bit for next week, but tending to be pretty consistent with something in the 15-30mm range for much of Vic, with possibly much heavier falls in the usual spots. Time for a new thread?

Meanwhile Perth about to be slammed. They could well get 100mm plus the next few days if you believe GFS (they currently need 115mm to get to the old long term average :o ).
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