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VICTORIA - Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9 2018

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stevco123
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by stevco123 »

BoM going for 13on Thursday for the city?

That surely means it'll now be sunny and 20
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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly »

Heavy showers most the arvo in FC. Some quite impressive instability and convection for May. 4mm all up, but peak rainfall rate of 80mm/hr. Still convection popping up near Geelong so could yet be some more :?:

Almost time for the new thread. All models got something solid, though CMC and EC tending to be the best in terms of a low. GFS and UK tending to go for more of a deep showers swly then sthly set-up.

Could well bring some solid snow to quite low levels, though if the low bombs then it will turn to rain in the alps on the backend.
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Tassiedave
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Tassiedave »

Did the latest GFS just have a massive downgrade?
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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like autumn here this morning (finally). Status above, dew on the ground, grabs a dripping wet and trees finally yellowing.
Did the latest GFS just have a massive downgrade?
And the next one has had a big upgrade ;) Watching the models tend to think the current batch on average is the best we’ve seen. Details yet to pin down, but they are all tending to show 25-50mm south (with spot falls over 100mm), decreasing as you go north but everywhere gets some. Solid snowfalls in the alps, and probably subalpine regions at times. Could well be a system which spears the cold air into NSW and gives them solid falls around Orange etc.
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