17mm so far with some more to come. Definitely take that.
Yes, HB....EC is getting twitchy
An ECL cyclonic gyre with a wrap around moisture advection attack, water bombing 150mm+ into the Macedon Ranges late next week. Melbourne 70mm + . UKMet has also spotted the upper cold pool on the same run. Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come but something is brewing
Great falls for Macedonian, JS and, especially, Strato! I was in Bendigo a few weeks ago and the surrounding country was literally bone dry; that will be a godsend.
11mm for us which is better than Water & Land picked, so pretty content with that - we're in the lee of the Divide so often do poorly with rain from the NW. Maybe a few more mm today, which would top it off nicely, & backup if EC holds. (If it does, that will be the first time this year we've had two decent rain events in a week...)
PS: Don't know what happened to the wind? Not that I'm complaining
Well that would be the icing on the cake JS - fingers crossed. We have some green grass from the last event (incredibly) so that would give it a kick along.
From the Herald Sun...... I expect the mini tornado is warming up.
"AMAZING radar footage showing Melbourne under attack from a rain pattern has been likened to a hungry Pac-Man as rain and wild winds lashed the state overnight".
About 3mm more for us today, so event almost up to 15mm. That was about what I was expecting so everything from here is a bonus. Not expect a heap more, as it's going to westerly.
Waiting to see the model updated for mid week CMC and GFS are trying to produce something now, but very different scenarios.
Down at Walkerville where the winds are cyclonic Must be pushing 100km/hr in the gusts. Showers have been heavy but short lived. 14mm in the gauge.
EC, GFS and the German model on board for a big system. That’s pretty good odds, but would like to see it stick for another run or two. Obviously a tricky setup. CMC gets the low but weaker. UK has a solid cold outbreak but low forms in the Tasman Sea.
The setup wasn’t quite so favourable here this time around, with quite a bit of rain shadowing. But we managed 7.4mm all up - anything is great right now and helps to replenish the tanks! The lower level plains to the west of Melbourne unfortunately got quite a lot less, but with interesting signs emerging for a possible new system next week maybe (hopefully!) another chance for some more rain.
GFS has put its tail between its legs and is properly following EC now. UKMet has the scenario a little more east still.
The sudden stratospheric warming event that has been underway since April 28th is splitting the polar jet in 2 over SE OZ by Thursday on EC and GFS. 500 hPa polar injection looks like a classic sting jet event with 120 km/h wind gusts over a wide area of Victoria into a gusting 150 km/h tail. Tasman sea surface temp is 20c to 24c to feed and crank the moisture advection machine. It will be a lock in once the UKMet model lines up IMO...not quite there yet.
Hmmm something brewing mid/late next week
I just hope the low does not Bomb too far to the east
Need this one to come off
Also the wind look wild from the south on couple of the model runs