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VICTORIA - Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm »

17mm so far with some more to come. Definitely take that.

Yes, HB....EC is getting twitchy :)

An ECL cyclonic gyre with a wrap around moisture advection attack, water bombing 150mm+ into the Macedon Ranges late next week. Melbourne 70mm + . UKMet has also spotted the upper cold pool on the same run. Plenty of downgrades and upgrades to come but something is brewing :)
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by stevco123 »

11.6mm this morning here. Love it.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm »

latest Access C has total totals over 55 this morning in central areas. It very unstable upstairs.... could be some thunder with the showers
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Onetahuti »

10.2mm for here, great for the garden if there is follow up.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Didjman »

12mm here so far, need more please.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo »

19mm here. Best rain in over 4 months.

Hopefully EC settles down and maintains the ECL for next week. The warm Tasman Sea might throw up some of these...
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Gordon »

Great falls for Macedonian, JS and, especially, Strato! I was in Bendigo a few weeks ago and the surrounding country was literally bone dry; that will be a godsend.

11mm for us which is better than Water & Land picked, so pretty content with that - we're in the lee of the Divide so often do poorly with rain from the NW. Maybe a few more mm today, which would top it off nicely, & backup if EC holds. (If it does, that will be the first time this year we've had two decent rain events in a week...)

PS: Don't know what happened to the wind? Not that I'm complaining :)
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by jmw2207 »

I can hear the ground this morning suck in this rain. It was so thirsty! 19mm here. Tanks get a much needed mini boost.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Gordon »

Some good falls showing up in the NE already - 50mm at Mt Hotham, 30mm at Buller with more to come.

Also starting to get properly cold, 6C here, 2.9C at Mt William and 1C at Mt Hotham with coldest air still well west of there.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm »

This next round from the south west in front of the next trough has some fairly cold cloud tops. Hopefully get a little more out of that as well.

@Gordon, you might be a chance for 20mm by the end of today ;)
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Gordon »

Well that would be the icing on the cake JS - fingers crossed. We have some green grass from the last event (incredibly) so that would give it a kick along.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by mick »

From the Herald Sun...... I expect the mini tornado is warming up.

"AMAZING radar footage showing Melbourne under attack from a rain pattern has been likened to a hungry Pac-Man as rain and wild winds lashed the state overnight".
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Dane »

17.2mm's overnight - best 24 hour fall since the 30th of January. :D
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Macedonian »

25mm for Mt Macedon and 16.5mm at work down in Macedon.

Cold now, only 7C at home.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly »

About 3mm more for us today, so event almost up to 15mm. That was about what I was expecting so everything from here is a bonus. Not expect a heap more, as it's going to westerly.

Waiting to see the model updated for mid week CMC and GFS are trying to produce something now, but very different scenarios.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo »

GFS has joined EC with a mega cold-cored ECL next week...
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly »

Down at Walkerville where the winds are cyclonic :o Must be pushing 100km/hr in the gusts. Showers have been heavy but short lived. 14mm in the gauge.

EC, GFS and the German model on board for a big system. That’s pretty good odds, but would like to see it stick for another run or two. Obviously a tricky setup. CMC gets the low but weaker. UK has a solid cold outbreak but low forms in the Tasman Sea.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by snowfall »

The setup wasn’t quite so favourable here this time around, with quite a bit of rain shadowing. But we managed 7.4mm all up - anything is great right now and helps to replenish the tanks! The lower level plains to the west of Melbourne unfortunately got quite a lot less, but with interesting signs emerging for a possible new system next week maybe (hopefully!) another chance for some more rain.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm »

GFS has put its tail between its legs and is properly following EC now. UKMet has the scenario a little more east still.

The sudden stratospheric warming event that has been underway since April 28th is splitting the polar jet in 2 over SE OZ by Thursday on EC and GFS. 500 hPa polar injection looks like a classic sting jet event with 120 km/h wind gusts over a wide area of Victoria into a gusting 150 km/h tail. Tasman sea surface temp is 20c to 24c to feed and crank the moisture advection machine. It will be a lock in once the UKMet model lines up IMO...not quite there yet.
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Wilko »

Hmmm something brewing mid/late next week
I just hope the low does not Bomb too far to the east
Need this one to come off
Also the wind look wild from the south on couple of the model runs
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