VIC: Autumn pattern with weak fronts - March 30 April 2018

[Dane]

Some rain indicated on most models around Thursday in particular.
BOM not really that interested going for just 1 to 5mm's next Thursday

[hillybilly]

Mild day yesterday and almost warm today here. Tomorrow warmer again, and going to be a stinker in the northwest for mid autumn. Fire weather indices not looking to nice either.

Repeats again on Tuesday. Quite a few spots north of the divide will get close to April records.

Almost time for a new thread for the potential two part system from Wednesday/Thursday next week. Models quite good, but can’t decide on which of the parts is bigger and still jumpy so lots of uncertainty. Geez we need this one... given how stupidly dry it’s been since end of January for most of Vic

[StratoBendigo]

Almost time for a new thread for the potential two part system from Wednesday/Thursday next week. Models quite good, but can’t decide on which of the parts is bigger and still jumpy so lots of uncertainty. Geez we need this one... given how stupidly dry it’s been since end of January for most of Vic

Yep. 18Z GFS looks real nice. Big cutoff low in the right place...

[Tassiedave]

GFS jumping around with each run. Latest one sees good rain for Victoria and Tasmania over the next week.

[Gordon]

Models are jumpy alright... ominously jumpy

[StratoBendigo]

Struggling to see much more than 5mm at this stage. At least temps will be more normal for April after this coming week of Feb weather.

A mini-drought happening atm. MJO pulse is just doing laps of the Western Indian Ocean at present. No wonder.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting - Access C (BoM's high resolution local model) latest run 18z is picking up some decent temperature and dew point differences between 850 and 500 hPa around that trough for tomorrow afternoon, GFS is also now picking this up. Winds at 700 Hpa will be around 50 knots. The moisture is questionable but it could be bubbling and might get a little sparky in central areas

[StratoBendigo]

Second day in a row over 30c. And probably another two more to go.

Walpeup has hit 35.5c so far today, after 35.9c yesterday. Mildura hit 37.8c on 4th April 1986.

[QldTwister]

Yeah state records and a number of location records should fall tomorrow in the heat away from the cloud.

Shame going to be lots of cloud around tomorrow was gonna be the last warm to hot and sunny day of the season around 30c.

Warm Wednesday as well

Loving this nice weather still lingering but the nice warm weather is in its dieing stages.
Record heat across much of SA (42c today new record), NSW and Vic in coming days before more autumn weather takes hold on the weekend and early next week

Over the coming weeks and the rains will return so to the large slow moving highs and days of cool cloudy depression.

Active 10 days ahead and everyone will get some rain.

[hillybilly]

Away this week, which is good as I’m over this heat.

Pretty worryingly Sunday broke the Australian record high temperature (average across all of OZ), and it is a good chance to be broken again when Monday’s final numbers come in, and then again when Tuesday’s numbers arrive. Also set a new April high record for SA, and in Sydney (and in WA earlier in the month).

Looks like the odd spitty high based shower to me the next two days. Might squeeze and mm or two if your lucky. Stinking hot in the north... more like January than mid April.

Friday through Sunday looks like bringing s proper change with showers and rain.

[JasmineStorm]

Quite a few sparks in the SW overnight with that fading front and trough. Might keep bubbling in central areas later this morning with the trough nearby.

[JasmineStorm]

Cluster cells quite active near Warrnambool and the Otways heading west ATM. Uppers are quite unstable.

[hillybilly]

Scored 1.5mm in FC. Light showers, but with one brief heavy bit. Temperature dipped to 16.7C from 23C before the shower. Couple of others spots nearby also got a mm. Says a bit when that’s the wettest day in a week

[StratoBendigo]

Just overcast here and currently 22c. Temps are skyrocketing to our NW though - Mildura is already up to 34.6c.

Saturday is looking very very different: Mid-teen temps, rain, and gale force Westerlies turning Swly. Bring it on!

[hillybilly]

Next set of showers inbound. These are suddenly coming from west or north of west, so clearly a little upper/mid level trough just west of Melbourne ATM.

[hillybilly]

Northwest starting to get close to significant records now. The Vic April record to watch is 37.8C back in 1986. Current in the 36-37C range at a few sites.

[StratoBendigo]

Northwest starting to get close to significant records now. The Vic April record to watch is 37.8C back in 1986. Current in the 36-37C range at a few sites.

Gone. Mildura was 38.1 at 12:30pm.

Fortunately it's still cloudy here and just 25c.

[hillybilly]

Vic record April has just fallen with a 38.1C at Mildura

That means (if my counting is correct) that Feb, April, June, July, August, Sept, Oct and Nov have all been broken since 2000. We've set the July, Sept and April records in the last 12 months. With about 110 years of data you'd expect to break a month record about once every ten years, so we've broken 30 years of records in less than one year

[StratoBendigo]

Meanwhile in New Zealand: https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national ... outherners

[Macedonian]

Omg! I wanna move to NZ