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VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Lucia »

Wilko wrote: Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:26 pm Awesome
Pleeease deliver
Yes, we have waited long enough now :hahohi: :P
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by flyfisher »

I really hope this system delivers as Mt Dandenong is dying...

See the pictures below (Hope they work)

I have circled in red where the gums look like they are going brown and crispy - their leaves. Similar to what happens when they are burnt. The photos don't not do it justice and it's much clearer to see with polaroid sun glasses on. Looks worse on the ridge lines.

It looks terrible further up the road where Mt Dandenong tourist road splits off - the 1000 steps area.

Image

Image
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by flyfisher »

trying again....



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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Wilko »

I think it all looks very marginal
I hope I’m wrong
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Gordon »

Wilko wrote: Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:56 pm I think it all looks very marginal
I hope I’m wrong
We seldom get better-looking synoptics than the current BOM 4 day chart; certainly for Saturday/Sunday/Monday anyway: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

But somehow, the systems keep finding a way to fail and the latest modelled rainfall, while okay, doesn't fill me inspiration for our location at least(west-central).
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Progs look rock solid. WATL which is the average of the models shows 25 to 50mm for southern and mountain areas east of Melbourne and 15-25mm for areas west. North more typically 10-20mm. Provided there is followup it looks like a solid autumn break for many. Saturday looks nice and thundery... can’t wait ;) Current batch of progs peak near central Vic which is good as we’ve been in a big hole for two months :o
It looks terrible further up the road where Mt Dandenong tourist road splits off - the 1000 steps area.
This happens every few years (with the nasty summers which have become a norm). Most those trees should come back. It’s an extreme stress response on that hot west facing slope. Last time I saw it was about four years ago (2014). Also happened in early 2009 and 2003.

What is a bigger concern is the general loss of the wet understory and big trees. This has been going on since 1997. There are many big dead tree ferns around the range, and there will be more after this summer. They take decades or centuries to grow. Same for all the Mountain Ash at lower elevations which have steadily disappeared. You can’t warm by a degree and a bit and throw in multiple poor rainfall years without an impact on the trees.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Wilko »

What is a bigger concern is the general loss of the wet understory and big trees. This has been going on since 1997. There are many big dead tree ferns around the range, and there will be more after this summer. They take decades or centuries to grow. Same for all the Mountain Ash at lower elevations which have steadily disappeared. You can’t warm by a degree and a bit and throw in multiple poor rainfall years without an impact on the trees.
[/quote]

I won’t bang on as this is probably for another thread but this is a very real example of rapid global warming
We are getting dryer and warmer at an alarming rate while politicians have their heads in the sand :x

Looking forward to some storm action returning on Sat with some decent rain
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by neil275 »

Just had the first rain in nearly 2 months - a whopping 1 mm! :woooo: Hopefully more to come this weekend.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

BoM coming on board with storms now. It's interesting how their official forecasts lag well behind latest model guidance, through no fault of the forecasters but just an old process and internal reviews I suppose.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly »

First cells starting to fire out west. Looks to be on track for widespread rain and storms tomorrow. ECs been keen on general 10-30mm falls, tending to peak near central. Others models not dissimilar.

Expecting to score about an inch tomorrow, then the same spread across Sunday and Monday. Got a lot to catch up after seven dry weeks so hopefully this one delivers that plus more ;)

Sunday looks like bringing blustery showers and storms in a squally westerly. Unfortunately looks like we may miss out on a proper swly flow on Monday so followup showers on the backend will tend to stick more to far south and ranges. The low passes just south of Vic and is sub 980hPa so going to be a decent blow :?

Meanwhile TC Nora making a run at Cat 4.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Tracking some of the Oxfam walkers, any hint of time that the rain may start,
I did read late morning..
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Tracking some of the Oxfam walkers, any hint of time that the rain may start,
EC has light patchy falls from midnight, thickening during the day and peaking mid arvo. Be a damp day for them :?
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by snowfall »

Looking good overall. Really, really hoping it materialises as expected - would be great to see a proper fall of rain. I have almost forgotten what it is like. Quite a warm night - currently 19c here.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Horts »

Could alomst pick it. No rain for months until the one weekend I have something on. Oh well, should make for an interesting day of Formula 1 Qualifying tomorrow!!
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

hillybilly wrote: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:50 pm
Tracking some of the Oxfam walkers, any hint of time that the rain may start,
EC has light patchy falls from midnight, thickening during the day and peaking mid arvo. Be a damp day for them :?
Pretty warm, so far ok with rain, well that I can see after resting eyes, these guys are hitting Mt Evelyn around 2.30am
Rain will just mangle feet...
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Few spots here overnight in a warm windy humid night. Looks like Melbourne will score another plus 20C minima which means it’s broken the record for most in a summer :? The new sites a bit cooler than the old one.

Radar looks good. First time since the Australia Weekend that its had this type of colour. Best fall so far is 10mm at Port Fairy. The fire grounds out west have seen 5-10mm (apparently there’s some nasty peat fire burning there which need a big rain event to put out).
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by StratoBendigo »

Going to be a fine line between nothing and 10 mm for us today. Hopefully the latter.

Dust is becoming a real pain atm. You feel it whenever you're outside.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by typhoon29 »

what is that sound? Is that rain? What is this rain? Pouring as I type. Wet day ahead.
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by stevco123 »

B-E-A-UTIFUL!!

Here's hoping it doesn't did what it has the tendency to do- come in slowly and then speed up once it hits us.

Enjoy!
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Re: VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

Post by snowfall »

It’s raining!
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