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VIC: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to 17th 2018

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Gordon
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Gordon »

Thanks JS - at least something! Where there's models, there's hope :). (For now...)
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Onetahuti
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Onetahuti »

BOM posted on Twitter -----

It's been 37 days since #Melbourne recorded 1mm or more of rainfall. With no significant rain in the 7 day forecast, we are on track to see one of the top 5 longest dry spells on record. Most of #Victoria had below average rainfall in Feb: https://t.co/yIdJaWdOcW #vicweather https://t.co/BSjNJEeY6Y
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by tonycynic »

Cooler weather next week? Typical, off for a long awaited camping trip, was hoping to have some heat. Gardens are looking crunchy now, going to be a few plants to replace come the rains.
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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly »

Dry just rolls on. If only my complaints would make it rain. Did I tell people how over this stupid weather I am :-x

Progs still holding a cooler week with southerlies coming up. Some showers, but looks more like the odd mm or two, rather than the soaking rain we really need. EC and GFS have been dabbling with bigger falls in coastal areas, but not consistent.
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by stevco123 »

What fantastic weather. Warmish (but bearable) days, and cool nights. It doesn't get better than this if you like calm weather.

Me? I'm ready for winter
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by weathergasm »

Thank dog I have other hobbies, that's all I can say
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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly »

26C here today so our first hot day for the sequence (that’s about 31C at sea level). Similar tomorrow and Saturday a touch warmer. Front looks a little earlier Sunday so milder now. Odd shower Monday ahead of a cool week with the odd shower near the coast. Still no decent rain showing up, but a chance for something Thursday into Friday and again around Sunday or Monday.
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QldTwister
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by QldTwister »

MAGIC PREFECT DAY

LOVING THIS WEATHER :D :D :D :D

Was at Bonbeach and others all day, just magic water was warm and crystal clear, no wind, prefect pure sunshine just magic, magic weather.

ENJOY IT

Soon will be cold, gloomy, dark and depressing with passing showers.

Rains and fronts will return just wait a few weeks.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by snowfall »

QldTwister wrote: Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:44 am MAGIC PREFECT DAY

LOVING THIS WEATHER :D :D :D :D
I guess everyone’s different. :) I know many people who have been loving the dry sunny weather over the past 6 weeks, and it’s probably the majority of Melburnians. For me, the odd day here and there is fine, but I’m certainly not in my element with this weather. I much prefer it to be rainy. Maybe a day or two a week with a bit of warmth and sunshine but the rest of the time cold, cloudy, misty, and wet would be my ideal setup.

We do need the rain now though. Really hoping this pattern breaks down soon, but it seems so entrenched at the moment.
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Macca2395 »

Pretty extraordinary weather I have to say. I literally don't think I've seen a cloud in the sky for over a week!

Next weekend looking reasonably dry and windy?! :?
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Lucia »

Monotony and boredom, watering, watering and then again some more. Have accepted it now as the norm it has been so many days now. Hope we don't encounter another summer like this for a while, since we have been hit with such a dry period now! For us garden lovers it has become the part of the year that I look at with trepidation and long for the cooler, wet months of the year. Can't be too much longer before this pattern breaks, even Jasminestorm is quiet on here now, if she can't see anything to give us hope, things are bad aren't they? :cry:
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by flyfisher »

The current pattern has similarities with 2008/2009 - that was a weak La Nina year also. Wet in the north and dry in the south. That was the summer of Black Saturday. I think we are almost past the extreme fire danger weather now - but in saying that it's extremely dry out there.

These weak La Nina's are no good for us here. Warm Tasman sea is influencing trough's in that region which blocks the high over our area. We also have been unlucky not to get an ex tropical system to come down over us. Perth on the other hand has had many and possibly a few more to come down over them.

I find I am looking for even the chance of some drizzle on the charts now. Could be a chance this week to dampen the ground with a big high to the west and a reasonable fetch.
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by StratoBendigo »

No rain in sight unfortunately. Hideously dry atm and not happy that AC has broken down.

Nasty weekend coming up if EC is correct.... But probably rather cool after the blowdryer.

Hurry up winter!
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Tassiedave »

Maximum temperatures in Tassie today Launceston 30.1, Devonport 28.9, Fingal 27.8 , Scottsdale 27.1, Hobart 25.0. The Mean number of days ≥ 30 per year for Launceston is 5.1. We have now had 7 in 2018.
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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly »

Been down in Walkerville the last couple of days. Still a smidge of green down there as they got a bit in Feb. Was so warm and humid the last couple of days. Like Queensland out on the water.

Back in Ferny Creek where it is terribly dry now. Not far off 2009 dry here now at the surface. In fact this six week spell has been a little drier than the horrible January and February 2009, but that spell was hotter.

Progs look horrible. Cool but mostly dry then a possible nasty fire weather day for next weekend (either Saturday or Sunday depending on which prog you believe). High 30s, dew points near zero and gales. EC and GFS latest runs shape up as a bad fire weather day. Hoping they drop it in the model updates, but if anything they seem to be converging atm :(
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by stevco123 »

Still greenish down here as well compared to only about 10km North which ia bone dry
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by QldTwister »

Yeah Weekend looking amazing, Sunday on EC Wow 37-42c across Vic gales, dust, fires crazy for mid march if any goes not good.
Gotta get those Gippy fires out this week.

Much cooler today boo lol

DRY next 2 weeks though, weekend change little if any rain again and HUGE high behind it for next week.

Yep everyone is different and if its not storms and humid or heavy rain and flooding i LOVE cloud warm sunny days light winds 28-32c and the last 5 days has been just that prefect.

Hate 14c gloom cold damp so that will come soon so enjoying now.

All eyes on this weekend

Will the trend continue, bears watching a 6hr difference will make all the difference.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like the odd shower likely later today as the swly freshens. Gotta be Melbourne’s best chance for a fall above 1mm in ages...

Otherwise dry just rolls. I’m struggling to see anything in the next two weeks now. There’s some chance early next week, but could just as easy be dry. This is fast shaping up as one of the worst flash droughts on record in much of Vic.

Warm to hot Saturday and hot Sunday. Progs quite different on the timing of the front which makes a big difference for the winds. GFS and CMC are much later with lighter winds on Sunday. ACCESS is much earlier. EC is late arvo and the worst of the lot with strong to gale force winds. We actually avoid the very worst of the heat on the latest runs, with EC peaking 850Ts at a CRAZY 28C in SA, but drop them to about 22C over southern Vic. Am expecting some late seasons records from this, but hopefully we avoid that :(
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Re: Classic autumn dry start March 1st to.....

Post by JasmineStorm »

Incredible bullet proof ridge just keeps swatting tropical and polar lows away like flies at a BBQ. The monsoon is doing its best but any new lows are either going to ride the ridge to the NW graveyard or wind shear will shred them off the east coast with the Hadley cell still anchored well south. It needs a major tropical cyclone or cold core polar gyre to break the pattern but at the moment models can’t produce one at least in the next 10 days…yet :)


My 2 cents worth on the current southern hemisphere synoptics from EC latest runs
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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly »

Cold cloudy but fine day here today. Just 15C for a max. In more normal times would have expected a few showers today, but our weather is hardly normal atm :(

Should see some showers overnight, which might locally drop a mm or two. Same again Wednesday and Thursday, but all near coastal.

Hot weekend. Big spit on the models for timing of the front. The German and ACCESS models have the front early Sunday with showers. EC has it through Melbourne early arvo, with a max near 38C followed by a bit of rain. CMC and GFS have it in the evening with a scorcher on Sunday which could get close to 40C in the city :? Rain then follows on Monday. Most the models have a bit of rain now, but patchy and only CMC going for anything substantial at this stage. Will take a look at late season records tomorrow. I’m expecting plenty could be under threat. Bad weekend for fire weather with a couple of large fires already burning in Gippsland, and the state baked dry.

Thinking we could do with a new thread for the weekend, once it firms up a bit. Hope this event is the end of the stupid dry spell and crazy “summer” which started in mid November and looks like lasting past mid March.
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