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VIC: Hot and humid with some storms - January 24 to 31 2018

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hillybilly
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VIC: Hot and humid with some storms - January 24 to 31 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Thread for the long hot humid spell showing up in the models. This one looks nasty with temperatures near or above 40C for most days in the north. The south will be a little cooler, but still warm to hot through the entire period.

Some instability, particularly about the ranges, and the possibility of a rainband early in the new week.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by wolfcat »

Kill me now, 88% humidity and the house is 6 degrees ABOVE ambient temp an no breeze at all.

The forecast for the long weekend is looking really bad, a few hot days last week, won't take much for the brown stuff to hit the oscillating object with three potential 40c days.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by JasmineStorm »

GFS overnight on the 12z run projected for this coming Sunday a heat index (apparent temperature) across Victoria including Melbourne of between 42 to 45c. Someone please correct me as I can't find records on BoM to verify but this will be the hottest 'feels like' day in Victorian recorded history if that run becomes reality. Black Saturday had a heat index of 41c from memory as the humidity was low single figures when the 46c level air temperature was breached.
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GFS 28th Jan 5pm heat index run 2101 12z.jpg
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Tassiedave »

In addition JS the GFS 12z seems to have taken the rain and showers away as well.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Rhys_34 »

It is still 6 days away but this forecast is extremely worrying - 43-44C for Melbourne, 46-47C for Adelaide and places like Mildura with 850hpa temps of 31C would mean a surface temp of around 48C - this accompanied by high winds and a cooler change later the next morning is an absolute worst case scenario for bush fires...
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2018012112z.fcst-201801281900z.t850.vic.null.0.png
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by stevco123 »

I think there is high volatility with the forecast for Friday to Monday.

Could drastically change, especially Sunday, to a cooler forecast.

Saturday to me looks like the hottest day.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Skywalker »

Thank god I'll be down at the island for the weekend. Might have to sleep at the beach with a forecast like that. :sccary:

I'll have to flood the absolute crap out of the gardens before I go. I really hope the models are wrong on this one.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

It's looking similar (although less windy) to the summer of 2009. It has a familiar feel to it. EC has it cooling off significantly after 29th January...
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by neil275 »

Woke up to thunder this morning and a few brief showers. Could be in for more today with the trough lingering over northern Victoria. A welcome respite from the extreme heat of the past 3 days (42, 43, 43) with a forecast top of 36 before another string of sweltering days in the coming week.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by JasmineStorm »

Good comments by all :) Looks like an interesting thread created by HB ;) I hope you are right Stevco about Sunday.

IMO this set up looks historical but it's not just about the temperature. Unlike most end of January northerly set ups, this has a higher moisture content and has large high based thunderstorm potential over several days. The traditional set up of low humidity, strong northerlies is currently not what the models are projecting. Of course this can change...but it's getting closer and they are all locking in the same scenario.

Rather than cherry pick models, here is what 3 global ensembles and Access think at the moment. Considering high moisture, these current temperature projections across 93 models is jaw dropping. Even Broome, Cairns and Darwin rarely get above a 40c heat index on the eve of wet season. The danger here IMO is heat stress on a large scale. This will be a shock to Victorians creatures of all varieties.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

Well today is no reprieve. It's already 36c outside. Hopeless.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Sean »

This heat is getting ridiculous. I don't know if the humidity is going to be a blessing or a curse given how our wildlife must be feeling. Luckily we had some rain, otherwise we would be facing another 2009. We're not even in Feb yet.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

00Z GFS has a little bit of rain (up to 25mm) for us this time next week. Relief perhaps.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Tassiedave »

Some Max temps today in Tasmania today: Fingal 32.4, St Helens 32.0, Cressy 32.0, L'ton Airport 30.4, Launceston 29.1, Hobart 24.3
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

37.9c here. 100degF+ is merely routine.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by jimmyay »

Nice cool 23 in Cheltenham today, had a lovely walk on the bay trail enjoying the fresh sea breeze. Get the feeling it won’t be so cool the next few days..
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by Didjman »

Am hearing in CFA circles of a TFB for Saturday for Nth Central District among others.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by tonycynic »

The overnight minimums will really hurt, plenty of mid 20's so it will be hard to cool the house down. Going to be some sore heads on Monday and there is a lot of summer still to come. Hoping for a decent bit of rain but not holding my breath.
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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

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Re: Hot, humid with some storms: January 24-31

Post by WeatherViewer »

The humidity looks incredible this coming weekend! Certainly going to feel like the top end.
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