VIC: Summer heat followed by possible showers - January 17 to 24 2018

[hillybilly]

Another scorcher showing up on the models with a warm day Wednesday, hot to very hot Thursday and a stinker on Friday. Should see temps in the northwest approach 40C, then go into the low to mid 40s. For Melbourne Wednesday looks nice, Thursday hot but some local sea breezes, then a stinker on Friday which should see us go above 40C again Struggling to see Vic not getting another 45C somewhere in the sequence... something that used to happen just once or twice per decade.

Change through later on Friday but it tends to stall with a surface trough sitting near Vic, with an upper trough to the west. This should see some showers, but the moisture looks a bit limited. North of the divide will cool a bit but stays hot.

Thankful that most spots have had some rain the last week, and winds look mostly light to moderate with the heat.

[JasmineStorm]

GFS cranking up the blast furnace into the mid 40's around outer Melbourne for Friday afternoon on the latest 18z run

[Skywalker]

GFS cranking up the blast furnace into the mid 40's around outer Melbourne for Friday afternoon on the latest 18z run

Unfortunately there will be no escaping it for me this time as I'm back at work & stuck in the hellhole western desert.

[Sean]

GFS cranking up the blast furnace into the mid 40's around outer Melbourne for Friday afternoon on the latest 18z run

I won't be surprised if Melbourne hits 45c this summer.. It just seems like the cards are stacked against us.

On a related note, I recently dreamt that Melbourne hit 50c, lol. It was a nightmare. Mass black outs. Dead animals everywhere - there was just no escape. Everyone migrated into Port Phillip Bay and just sat/stood in the water all day. It's scary to think that in real life just nothing is prepared for that kind of temperature, not the power grid, not public transport, not the animals, nothing.

[Onetahuti]

Could do without the heat on Thursday/Friday, for the first time in 2 years taking a respite break starting Thursday, intention is/was to go cycling around the Moe area. May just have to stay out of the heat till the weekend.

[hillybilly]

Progs not much changed. Biggest question I guess is the timing of the change on Friday. If it is delayed Melbourne will end in the low 40s. Hoping it comes earlier rather than late.

On a related note, I recently dreamt that Melbourne hit 50c, lol. It was a nightmare. Mass black outs. Dead animals everywhere - there was just no escape. Everyone migrated into Port Phillip Bay and just sat/stood in the water all day. It's scary to think that in real life just nothing is prepared for that kind of temperature, not the power grid, not public transport, not the animals, nothing.

It’ll happen unfortunately. The hottest temperatures in the hottest places are warming faster than the average. A recent study just out suggests we will see the first 50C around the 2030s. I suspect we could already get close. If we got the Black Saturday setup in early January we would probably see temps to 48 or 49C around Melbourne. Wouldn’t take much to sneak to 50C. Same for western burbs of Sydney. If we got the Black Friday setup they would probably get very close to 50C now.

What will happen? Who knows. So many systems have hidden vulnerabilities.

There’s nothing good about this

[jimmyay]

How’s next week shaping up do we think. 2nd week of be tennis...often hot!

[Wilko]

It looks like the wet season is kicking in to gear up North however down in this neck of the woods I cannot see any rain for the foreseeable future
The temps also look quite mild after this week

[hillybilly]

Funny that the progs hardly chop and change when it comes to heat. They latch on and then you just watch the model world become the real one

Thursday and Friday stinkers across the whole state. Low 40s or worse in the north. Could be bit of a sea breeze tempering things in the south on Thursday. Change on Friday mid-arvo. Thankfully winds aren't too bad, as the air is very dry and the air is furnace hot.

Models trying to produce a bit of rain on the weekend, but lower mid-levels are quite dry so suspect most will be virga.

BTW progs producing nasty heat day-after-day inland the next 7-10 days. Vic is on the edge, but inland areas elsewhere are going to see some nasty temperatures. Is some sign of tropical moisture filtering in later in the period. This summer is reminding me of last year with heaps of rainfall in Western Australia and a dominant upper high drying and frying the inland east. Vic sits between these features. Perth was unlucky not to have seen it's wettest day on record yesterday, missing out by a few kms on the heaviest falls.

[JasmineStorm]

GFS has the southerly change wrapping around into Melbourne near 4pm Friday on the latest 18z run. Avalon around 46c

This is a tough set up for the BoM to get right on temperatures as the northerly is not that strong, so any sea breeze that sneaks in early will make the BoM's forecast for Melbourne a long way out over the next few days. Inland is a terrestrial heat bomb..... with no sign of the monsoon trough for the next week in the Queensland tropics. Once the monsoon trough arrives in February off Queensland, look out…

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 81#p103681

[Gordon]

00z GFS and BOM's 4 Day synoptic charts now suggest some rain for us over the weekend. (I'm clutching at any straws I can get my hands on!)

[Tassiedave]

ACCESS-G has the heat returning in a big way Friday and Saturday next week.

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 30C in FC yesterday above the inversion. Today looks similar but a few degrees warmer. Jump day on the flats with high 30s to low 40s west and north. East looks a bit cooler with uppers still warming and some sea breezes.

Stinker all around tomorrow. Thankfully winds stay moderate or light most the day.

Bit of rain showing in most the models for the weekend with a weak rainband lying back over Vic. Most models showing a few mms, but will be hit and miss, with dry mid levels meaning a fair bit will be virga.

Longer term heat just cooks over the inland. Is shaping up as a very hot month for most in the inland and east Possible a bit of moisture filtering down. Overall pattern doesn’t much change with the tropical convection focussed in the west with another TC or tropical low showing up in the models.

Btw we aren’t the only place getting heat. Lots of spots in NZ have had record highs in the last week including Dunedin and Invercargil in the south to Auckland at the top. They are surrounded by a record area of ocean temperatures which are probably boosting things on top of the heat that OZ is cooking up.

[wolfcat]

And we hit 30c before 10am.

[snowfall]

Already 32.3c here and the NNW wind has picked up quite a lot this morning. I don't function too well in this kind of weather - glad there's only one more day to go.

[wolfcat]

First 40, Avalon: 40.1 12:50pm

[Skywalker]

38c here in Sunshine West. I'd say we are in with a very good chance of cracking 40c too.

The western desert well & truly living up to it's name..... dry, dusty & bloody hot.

[jimmyay]

Unless the sea breeze kicks in I can see it topping 40 widely today.

[Jake Smethurst]

Up to 38 degrees here, absolutely stinking out there. Fortunately I have the day off so cooling as much as I can inside out of the furnace.

No sign of a seabreeze yet either away from the far southwest coast where it appears a slightly milder breeze is taking shape there after some locations in that region hit 40 degrees.

Other areas like Warrnambool and Dartmoor in the southwest are at the 40 degree mark and climbing, as are many other western region locations. A few near the 41 degree mark. Unfortunately a couple of bad looking fires also down in the southwest currently.

[Skywalker]

And we have hit 40c.

Very Jealous Jake, wish I had the day off too. I wouldn't be stuck here that's for sure.