Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
Locked
S
SC.
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 346
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:57 pm
Location: Wheelers Hill
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by SC. »

BOM got it right.

AWS not functioning properly. Wait till morning to see the Nylex gauge results.
Matt

http://vintagemoviepostersforum.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
w
wolfcat
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Bentleigh East
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by wolfcat »

63mm in the gauge takes me over the monthly average in under 48 hours.

On a side note, if you toggle between all the Weatherzone Melbourne area radars you get very different readings.
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Sean »

Really starting to peter now. Radar overestimating a little in certain areas.

Was hoping this would last well into the night, but it's starting to clear the bay.

Good drop, though. Hopefully we get some follow up sooner rather than later.
S
SC.
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 346
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:57 pm
Location: Wheelers Hill
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by SC. »

Cat taken refuse in the garage. Might see her floating down the driveway later on while I cook dinner in the boat I built her.
Matt

http://vintagemoviepostersforum.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Wilko »

That radar is stuffed !
I should be underwater but barely a drop for last 2 hours
M
Macedonian
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2323
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Macedonian »

Raining quite heavily here now after just mostly wind driven drizzle since 9am.
Only about 10mm since 9am.
The most remarkable feature here today has been the wind and a max of only 9.5C in December.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1098
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

The North West Tasmania West Takone Radar seems to be overcooking things too. We are getting not much more than a spit yet there are dark blue colours on the radar.
w
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 244
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Box Hill

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by weathergasm »

Given the winds are coming from the southwest and blowing over the relatively warm bay, eastern bayside suburbs and the southern slopes of the eastern ranges ought to get a bit more rain tonight after the "main" rainband clears.

Wouldn't surprise me to see narrow streams of basically stationary southwest to northeast-oriented showers popping up on the radar as the night goes on. Areas under these bay effect showers could get surprising totals by morning.

Here in Elwood it's been non-stop moderate rain for the last two hours. Definitely rain, not drizzle. Wind is pretty gusty at times too.
Last edited by weathergasm on Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3142
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Steady rain @ Montrose.
Steady and constant @ “a wedding”
s
snowfall
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by snowfall »

Up to 53mm for the event now. Still teeming down here, but probably not a lot more in it. Only reached 13c here today and currently 11.1c. Throw in the wind, and it’s feeling very wintry. Heaters are on tonight and I’m sitting under a blanket watching the wild weather outside and listening to the rain pelting on the roof. The BOM were spot on with the forecast for here today. After today and further rain tonight I would imagine there will be some fairly significant stream rises in eastern parts of the central and north central areas.
H
HarleyB
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 839
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Wangaratta

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by HarleyB »

The Watts River at Healesville has just officially passed the minor flood level. 3mm here tonight, that brings up to 90mm for the event. So close, but yet so far from the magic 100mm mark! Nevertheless, an awesome system that did end up delivering for most.

Today was also our coldest December day since 2013, when we had a max of 17.0 on the 5th (the coldest December day this decade). There ended up being a day just 15 days later that reached 42.6, which was the hottest December day of the decade. It's interesting how quickly things can turn around (as we have just seen in November).
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Dane »

Nice steady soaking rain - 19.2mm's since 9am.
System total 47mm's.
User avatar
Onetahuti
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2786
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:37 pm
Location: Dandenong Nth.

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Onetahuti »

Event total now 53mm which would give around 20mm for today most of which has fallen since late afternoon. Knew it was wet as I brought the partner home by taxi for dinner with friends, getting her and the wheelchair to and from the taxi I got wet. :D
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Still pouring in the Dandenongs. 7mm the last hour and our event is now up to 111mm. On 50mm since 9am. Is starting to become quite significant. Haven't looked close but suspect this could well be our best "event" since early 2011. Can be a bit hard to define an event, so more gut feel that strict fact.

Similar rainfall to what we had in 2005, but that one continued for another 60mm from where we are currently. Don't think we will make that, but you never know.

Couple of minor flood warnings showing up now for central areas.

EDIT> latest ACCESS continues showers or rain in central areas through til about 9am, then eases off. Suggests there could be still another 20 to locally 40mm to come.

The rain band is edging west south of the Bay so looks like its got some time to run.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Okay, here is my report after a brief night out. Terrible conditions out there on the roads, and some complete idiots will just never learn. Witnessed two incidents, one nose to tail right next to us, and another one in a 4wd lose it spinning the car a full 360 degrees. :greencon:

Another 18mm has fallen since my earlier post to take my event total to 46mm. Getting very close to cracking the 50mm mark.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
H
HarleyB
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 839
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Wangaratta

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by HarleyB »

Mt St Leonard (the border between the Goulburn Catchment and the Yarra Catchment) and Wallaby Creek (just on the north side of that same border) are both leading the way since 9am, both have raced up to 89mm now.

Drizzle has returned here too, we've ticked up to 91mm now in total.
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1098
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

BOM in Tasmania admitting the LOW is in a different position to the forecast and issues a Severe Weather Warning.

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of South East, North East and East Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:28 pm Saturday, 2 December 2017.
DAMAGING WINDS FOR PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TASMANIA

Weather Situation:
A low pressure centre lies to the northeast of Tasmania and slowly moves southwards near the east Tasmanian coast during Sunday. The low has been observed to be closer to Tasmania than forecast. As such, it now has the potential to bring damaging winds to the east and southeast coasts.
DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible for the east and southeast coasts. Note that strong southerly winds are not that common.
The strongest winds develop late Saturday and early Sunday morning about the East Coast, then extend to the Southeast coast around sunrise. Winds ease Sunday afteroon.
B
Blackie
Reactions:

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Blackie »

Rain has eased here now. Another 12 mm this arvo taking my 36 hr total to 167mm. I took a drive around the area and the rivers are raging. This shot is the Delatite River near Tonga bridge. Not sure if the wrap will make it up here. Could be edging more east than NE. Interesting to note that Lake Eildon rose 43000 ML today. A huge daily net inflow for any month let alone December. We are 7mm off our 52 year average rainfall now :P
Attachments
IMG_7851.jpg
IMG_7851.jpg (335.8 KiB) Viewed 10613 times
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by stevco123 »

Definitely not complaining but tonight's rain is very tame compared to the heavy stuff predicted.

Apart from some moderate stuff earlier, rain rate has been less than 2mm/h.

Not sure whether it will pick up again
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:35 pm Definitely not complaining but tonight's rain is very tame compared to the heavy stuff predicted.

Apart from some moderate stuff earlier, rain rate has been less than 2mm/h.

Not sure whether it will pick up again

The picture heading this article raised a laugh: https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/bom-defe ... rediction/

Given the media and BOM hype, it isn't far from what people were expecting, let's be honest..

It was going to be unprecedented, state wide, massive floods. I'm not ignoring the floods that are happening right now, of course, but it's not cataclysmic by any means.I think the main issue is that it didn't all happen at once. Flash flooding happens with extreme rainfall rates, but in the north east, an area more prone to heavier rain than elsewhere in vic, the land isn't too bad at managing the 100 or so mms that have fallen over quite a long time period.

The most weather-educated among us here on the forum were more accurate in terms of the actual course of events. The BOM, however, face the wrath of the public, government and media, so I think they did okay re. **officially** published warnings given the unpredictable nature of the setup and the fact people have to be warned of what could've been seriously dangerous (their media interviews, however, could do with a tad more restraint).

Looking into the future, I think this event is a good sign that summer will be a little more active than usual.
Locked