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VIC: Summery & unstable (Part 1) - November 9-19 2017

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Wilko wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:03 pm Melbourne airport just got smashed
We are currently getting smashed by that same cell. Backyard path is flooded. Will check gauge soon.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by mick »

Hunter1890 wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:31 pm Absolutely teeming down here in the north east. Haven't seen anything quite like it for some time. Keeps developing too. This is a BIG arvo for Melbourne
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by stevco123 »

We have a storm now down here. Lightning and then half a second later...BAAANNGGGG!! Loudest thunder in a while.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Dane »

Out of the Blue a small cell developed right over Cranny. We have rain and we have Thunder. :D
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Andy »

Unreal event for the CBD my wife is spending the weekend shopping with friends and just called me for some information!

Might be a bit far south in Geelong but this one is not failing to surprise. Still a seabreaze here which I must admit has died in the last 15 mins..... Might get to Lara. Last few frames has the main activity slightly swinging south again from what I can see.

Good read everyone Stay safe! - My wife tells me the CBD is a mess but don't know much more. I'm sure the news services will be taking care of that....... This time they probably CAN talk it up!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Skywalker »

13mm here from that cell, rain still falling although it has eased right off.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Dane »

Got a whopping half a mm from that cell before it moved away to the west and developed a bit more.
Thunder on 4 of the last 5 days here but not very much rain. MTD now 16.4 mm's
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by hillybilly »

23mm in FC. Torrential. Cluster of 15 to 30mm falls locally. Local aws is blocked, so will take a while to catch up.

Down at Mornington watching it. Stunned by structure. Will upload photo. Lots of sparks here and brief heavy rain.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by typhoon29 »

storms are all around us here but no hits. We won our cricket just before it all came in but yeah dry, windy
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Gordon »

15mm here from the storm just finishing now, so 45mm for thread to date which is great.

Locally lots of 15-30mm falls from that storm alone - we were at the lower end!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by snowfall »

Picked up 8mm from two storms, but looks like there much heavier falls not too far down the road. That takes us up to 39mm for the thread.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by hillybilly »

24mm in the manual gauge so event on 43mm. That's above what I expected so a good result. MTD is nearly 70mm so tracking ok.

Very patchy falls locally. Spots about 5km south only got a mm or two, while the area just east of us got smashed with big washouts and the local creek flowing a torrent. Looks like 40mm or more out there.

This warm humid weather just rolls on. Tomorrow is touch and go. It is most likely we will miss out on central areas with the instability confined to the southwest and northeast, with a weak inversion pushing in, but a chance. Similar on Monday. Showers and storms a bit more widespead from Tuesday.

Do we keep this thread going or start again??

Btw got a couple of photos. Will link later.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Gordon »

Probably time for a new thread I think? Looks like a slight break for few days for western and central. 9th to 18th is quite a thread and it's gone out with a bang!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

Maximum temperatures yesterday Hobart 29.8 Melbourne 28.1 Perth 24.1 Adelaide 23.0 Sydney 22.6 Brisbane 20.4 Canberra 19.0. Not for the first time recently Hobart was the warmest non Darwin capital!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Photo from yesterday looking north form Mornington Race Course. Was throwing out lots of sparks. Rain drops under it we're huge, but looks to have missed the gauge network.

Image

Isolated shower and storms today, mainly northeast ranges and southwest Victoria.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by StratoBendigo »

We've missed out since Thursday AM. But hints of some more rain this coming Friday+Saturday. And potentially quite a bit too.

Unrelenting warmth and humidity in the lead up. Sydney weather in Vic....
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

We’re going to keep this thread open and running. It’s quite a unique period with humid and unstable conditions across the state so it’ll be good to collate everything in one place.

Left the city at 3pm yesterday after work, very much regretted that decision not long later as we had hardly anything in Cheltenham. Managed to see a few CGs, but the entire afternoon we spent quite literally on the edge of everything. A little disappointing but it was great to see plenty of storm action on radar and the severe weather it produced elsewhere.

As for today, risk diminishes somewhat, but focus will be about the southwest (mainly otways), extending across southern parts of the central district and into the Gippsland ranges area.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Sunday 19th November 2017

No proper graphic again today, further improvisation by using radar map. Much more stable conditions across the state today compared to yesterday due to warming uppers and a weakening trigger. Despite this, marginal instability exists across the southwest and parts of southern central districts, extending across the eastern ranges. If there is enough surface heating or convergence/forcing within these areas (“green” boundary region), then a few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening. Due to enhanced moisture levels, any thunderstorm that does develop is likely to produce heavy rainfall. Large hail and damaging winds are less likely. For Melbourne, there is a risk, although only very small (less than 5%).
B4290230-6ECB-4ACD-8811-A9E0B8B7D737.jpeg
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by typhoon29 »

Zero chance here too nice a day.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

The forecast maximum temperatures for Launceston over the next 7 days are all 27 and above. If this comes off we will smash our November Mean temperature record. Record is 22.5 way back in 2007 ( we are already 22.3).
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