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Vic: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18 2017

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hillybilly
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Vic: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Quick sequence of fronts being thrown at Victoria from a strong Long-Wave-Trough (LWT) which is anchored in the Indian Ocean. The flow over eastern Australia is northwesterly right through which will see conditions quite mild for winter.

Rainfall will be pretty mixed. Should be ok on the west coast and about the northeast ranges. Elsewhere hit and miss.

Could well see a couple of days above 20C in Melbourne, and the Mallee could see a few days in the low to mid 20s. Something approaching 30C isn't absolutely out of the question. Perhaps right at the end we could see a proper front, but too far off to be sure.

Sequence could trigger some pretty decent runoff in the alps with a heavy cover of snow meeting mild wet weather :?
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Probably just a couple of days in the high-teens here in-between clipper fronts.

But it might be back to the depths of winter again at the end of this time period if some of the forecast models are any indication. We could get a decent bit of rain again too, pushing us close to our average August rainfall total.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Harley34 »

Fronts to come over the next few days. Next Wed/Thurs-Fri looks decent, if we are going by the forecast synoptic charts by Weatherzone. The Bureau only has these for 4 days in advance, but Weatherzone has 6 in advance and is very similar, so I just go by that. I like the current weather pattern recently, as we are getting a nice balance of sun and rain...
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

A little bit breezy this morning.

I must say, the models are getting excited about late next week. GFS and EC keep producing a snow event, rarely seen in Victoria. I'm waiting for downgrades but EC just produced another cracker on 12z for Aug 19th, with snow and sleet at sea level around Melbourne. Looks similar to Aug 10th 2005 or June 25th 1986 levels ATM :)
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly »

Mild windy night in the Dandenongs, and looks like a mild day today. Thinking we'll see a couple of 20s in central Vic today.

Not seeing a lot of rain the next few days, just the odd shower. Fronts get stronger as we move into next week.

EC almost cold enough for snow in the Dandenongs late next week. GFS is similar, though brings the cold air up later. Current values look like dipping to around -4C which is usually cold enough for snow to about 400m. I've tended to find that the period from start of August to mid September is the best window for snow up here.

BTW been looking through Trove for old snow accounts around Melbourne (well worth a look). Check out this one from August 1932. The most extreme event of all is last week of August 1849 (several inches in the city...).

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

hillybilly wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:58 am Mild windy night in the Dandenongs, and looks like a mild day today. Thinking we'll see a couple of 20s in central Vic today.

Not seeing a lot of rain the next few days, just the odd shower. Fronts get stronger as we move into next week.

EC almost cold enough for snow in the Dandenongs late next week. GFS is similar, though brings the cold air up later. Current values look like dipping to around -4C which is usually cold enough for snow to about 400m. I've tended to find that the period from start of August to mid September is the best window for snow up here.

BTW been looking through Trove for old snow accounts around Melbourne (well worth a look). Check out this one from August 1932. The most extreme event of all is last week of August 1849 (several inches in the city...).

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Wow, nice find HB with the article from 1932. 2 foot of snow in the Dandenongs :o
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Yes, August-Sept often delivers good low-level snowfalls if the conditions are right.

Recent events include:
Sept 5, 1995 - snow in outer Melb suburbs, Mt D caked in snow, flurries as far North as Elmore.
Late-Aug 1997 - significant snowfalls in South Gippsland.
Mid-Aug 2005 - as above, sea-level snow at Phillip Island.
Mid-Aug 2008 - snow on Mt.D, Monbulk.
Early-Aug 2014 - flurries to 300m A.S.L in Nth Central Vic.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Skywalker »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:50 am A little bit breezy this morning.

I must say, the models are getting excited about late next week. GFS and EC keep producing a snow event, rarely seen in Victoria. I'm waiting for downgrades but EC just produced another cracker on 12z for Aug 19th, with snow and sleet at sea level around Melbourne. Looks similar to Aug 10th 2005 or June 25th 1986 levels ATM :)
Well we can dream can't we. ;)

More of that annoying damn wind today. Painful ride home coming up. :x
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Yes skywalker, it's good to dream ;)

EC and GFS have had a downgrade on the ice age for late next week but it's still holding snow at 700m asl. They both were bullish at the same time, so I think we might get another upgrade again in the next couple of days.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly »

Mild windy one here today. Looks like a mild night, with maybe a few spits.

Next 48 hours look blustery, and their should be quite a few showers about the ranges and coast. Inbetween will be a mixed bag. Ec quite keen for here with nearly 20mm, but GFS has only dribbles, and CMC sits inbetween. Next week looks more of the same, but turning steadily wetter. Does look like the rain totals in the end could be significant in the usual spots.

Btw saturdays rain looks like coming from a stationary front which becomes a warm front. Quite like the system on Tuesday but stronger. It ushers in much milder air for Sunday and Monday. Strange set up :?

Strato, we've had snow in the Dandenongs between August and December every year since 2001 except 2009. I suspect 2009 is the first year that it hasn't snowed in the Dandenongs in any month, but that's my gut feeling rather than a hard fact. It snowed in December 2002 and 2006 so can go into summer. The last time snow was significant was 2008 when there was locally 10cm. Most years up to about 2008 saw a couple of falls or more. Going back September 2005 saw snow in the city and September 1969 it snowed twice in the city. In the 2005 event snowed lay for about four days in the hills. The biggest sea level event was that in late August 1849 when there was a few inches in the city and apparently deep drifts in the hills. I understand there was over a metre in the Dandenongs sometime between 1940 and 1960 but haven't been able to pin down the date.

Here's the Argus article for the 1849 event :o

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Tassiedave »

Warm August day in Tassie today. Swansea 20.0 degrees, Friendly Beaches 19.5, Hobart Airport 18.6, Hobart 18.1, Launceston 17.1 . Showers moving in from the west.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Rivergirl »

Hillybilly, don't forget 1986 when we had snow on the ground for 3 days. It was amazing and our welcome to the hills.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Great archive hunting HB. I wonder if what we write today will be found by weather enthusiasts in the year 2184 :)

Looks like a nice drop mid next week and then EC has done it again - Friday and next Saturday is the Ice age. It's a monster south westerly, snow all over Melbourne. Still 8 to 9 days out but it keeps producing it. You would think it won't happen .....
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly »

Progs starting to crank up the rain totals. GFS and EC have a solid 50-100mm for us the next ~7 days with a real mix - warm front tomorrow, warm perhaps even thundery troughs early next week, then a polar blast late next week. Still looks a touch too mild for snow here, but is close in the progs.

Had a windy night and fairly mild. Just a trace in the gauge.

Thinking maybe a shower or two today.
Hillybilly, don't forget 1986 when we had snow on the ground for 3 days. It was amazing and our welcome to the hills.
Just for you Robyn. This one's Ferny Creek primary school (I try to find a location to link all the photos so I don't distract any more ;) ).

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

I've had a real good look at this one for next week.... just based on the EC MSLP alone, this is starting to look a touch extreme. The monster southerly fetch from a 946 hPa cold core brut is something else next Friday. I'm still not convinced due to the big HP ridge behind it but I'm starting to get extreme weather itchy fingers with each EC run. GFS is occasionally onboard and Access to starting to jump on now from the last 12z run.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly »

Cool windy day with a few spits in FC. Picked up just on 0.5mm. Guess that's the start of the event.

Interesting warm frontal system for tomorrow. Latest GFS and ACCESS-R has a persistent areas of showers drapped across the middle of Victoria for most of the day. This initially moves up from the south as a cold front then reverses direction and comes back down over us from the north as a warm front. Most odd... struggle to recall something like this (though we did get something a bit similar on Tuesday).

Really mild Sunday->Tuesday with a big warm rain event showing up Tuesday/Wednesday. Could well see 50-100mm of warm rain in the alps on the snow pack :?
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Skywalker »

Been up in Sydney today for our company's owner & founder's funeral. Absolutely amazing conditions up here, 25 degrees with plenty of sunshine. :D

Arriving back to Melbourne reality later tonight. Stuck back indoors with showers.
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly »

Mild rainy night in FC with nearly 6mm in the gauge. EC has 6mm for us when I went to bed, so it nailed it :D

Is funny that the cold front that went through overnight is now stalling just north of Melbourne and will come back down over us as a warm front as the day goes on. Should double the 6mm by night, maybe even more.

Progs bascially unchanges. Mild Sunday, Monday with the odd shower and drizzle patch, then a cracking warm (for winter) system on Tuesday. This has a very good moisture infeed, high 850Ts (in the 5-10C range) and good forcing. Going to be a big rain producer on the ranges. Going to be some rapid river rises with it :?

Much colder by Thursday/Friday. GFS has temperatures on Friday cold enough for snow to about 500m. EC and ACCESS a touch higher. Further north this is going to be a record early season warm wave (for many spots the only event warmer is probably the August 2009 event :? ).
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by stevco123 »

...and as quick as the snow came, it's almost gone.

Such a shame looking at the webcams
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Not much to update from up here, just under a mil so far.

The North West cloud band on Tuesday evening is looking nice except if you have a ski trip booked to the ALPs, it looks quite wet. Some rainfall bullseyes might start appearing soon on the Ranges. Haven't seen a decent one of these for a while.

I'm having a lot of fun looking at the models for late next week... GFS 18z is similar to yesterdays EC 12z polar attack. The big models keep producing every few runs a ripping polar vortex surge ballooning into the ridge from Aug 18th to 21st. Something big is brewing ladies and gentlemen :)
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