Victoria - Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18 2017

[stevco123]

I'm still convinced we've just had very bad luck the last 10 or 15 winters.

They will be back

[Didjman]

Don't know if anyone else has spotted this, but the 3 lows in the bight were aligned west to east. Now they are aligned NW to SE. Might we be getting some wild weather in the next 24hrs? Will be interesting.
Overnight low of -3 at 0130 here, with max of 7. Wind chill would be close to 3!

Peter

[hillybilly]

Cold one here today with a max of just 6.4C. Still, been quite sunny so out of the wind it hasn't felt so bad. Been in the garden most the day and good provide you are rugged up

Rainband inbound for Adelaide looks good, but frustratingly will mainly slip under us. Might squeeze a mm or two in central areas. That looks like repeating through Tuesday with showery band coming around the top of the low. Hopefully they produce a bit in the western and northern slopes.

Amazed at how dry it has been this winter. We've only had 6.3mm so far this month, and only around 11mm last month. I am having to water the garden this weekend, which is crazy at this time of year and it doesn't look like a lot of rain coming this week unfortunately.

Crickey that's dry. Must be running driest on record ATM?? We keep sneaking showers in unstable nwly and swly streams so dry here but nothing like that. Real worry for the fire season in northcentral which will hit by start of October if it doesn't start raining properly soon

I noticed Melbourne's dams are still dropping which is pretty bad for mid July....

[Macedonian]

-0.6 to a max of 3.7C here today.
Trentham made it from -4.5C to 5C.
A windy bitter day in the central highlands.

[Macedonian]

Im up to about 40mm for the mtd which is a lot more than you at Gisborne Snowfall.
Still below av tho.

[JasmineStorm]

Kyneton had another -4 overnight I see. Sitting on around 37mm MTD but on the southern side of the range, its lean. Hopefully it's coming soon for you snowfall. Nice and chilly Macedonian. Looks like Kyneton was a top around 7c.

Over here in NZ there is another 3 headed cold core mid 970 hPa monster brewing for late in the week. I see for Vic the latest EC run has inched the polar vortex surge west against the ridge on Thursday morning toward Vic, with a big southerly fetch. If that moves west again, watch for the upgrade. Access did a similar model run last night.

[hillybilly]

EC and GFS showing a bit of an upgrade on the latest run. Somewhat colder too. Not quite a direct hit with the cold air, but closer

NZ gets a real bomb out of the sequence if it follows EC with a 971 hPa low sat near Wellington

Macedonian sounded like a nice day for the garden

[Macedonian]

Haha! No gardening today we had friends up from melbs and they wanted to go for a garden walk, we lasted about 3minutes

[hillybilly]

A few spits this morning with 0.2mm n the gauge. As expected first front is falling over. Similar for tomorrow, with proper rain not due in central and eastern areas until late Tuesday into Wednesday. Blowie out there, but not over the top.

Good to see a few mm's out in western areas.

[JasmineStorm]

This is the temperature leak from Antarctica I was talking about last week.

1st phase on all models is just missing Victoria with the ridge edging it out. Should be a decent southerly mid week but its currently modelled as a near miss on EC. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 1612&fh=72

2nd phase has it as a direct hit on NZ's north island as an ear throbbing low to mid 970's cold core cyclonic mid latitude gyre by Friday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 612&fh=120

3rd phase is a brutual Polar vortex pulse slamming NZ with a mega winter storm next Monday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=145

Victoria is having no luck if you want to see a winter storm but things can change if one of these pulses can dig into the ridge.

[StratoBendigo]

Feels warm outside today after the weekend (-3 on Sunday morning). Temp has got to 14.5c and Mildura even made it to 21c.

And there's lightning out West along the SA border. Perhaps we'll have some 'weather' this evening?

[JasmineStorm]

Cloud tops are near -50c on the squall line The earth surface losing heat fast this time year might give it cold feet after sunset.

[hillybilly]

So much for the cold outbreak in central areas Cool partly cloudy day here today with 0.4mm early, then fine. Second rainband slipping under us currently and a third in western Vic progged by the models to die somewhere near Ballarat. Hopefully they've got this wrong, as it starting to really dry out up here now. Currently reminding me of the middle of winter in 2002 and 2006 with these drying northerly winds and long gaps between proper rainfall.

Not really liking the looks of the remainder of this system. Too northerly then too southerly for much of Vic. Near miss on the cold air which ends up bombing over NZ which slows down the progression of the westerlies.

[StratoBendigo]

Whoah. Lightning, thunder and hail here!

[JasmineStorm]

Those multi cell clusters are hanging in there... Melbourians, turn on the storm shields

[Sean]

Look, a downpour is on the way! I shall sandbag the doors and empty the gutters posthaste for the looming 3mm rain event.

[Skywalker]

Those multi cell clusters are hanging in there... Melbourians, turn on the storm shields

Boredom zone shield is "on".

Radar certainly looks impressive towards the south west, although probably more a result of bright banding.

[Gordon]

Steady rain here and pouring off and on; quite a few flashes.

[hillybilly]

Squall line looks good on radar but will it make it down the southside of the divide Lots of brightbanding given the lowish freezing level.

Good to see the 5-10mm falls in western areas with this band.

I figure everything counts when you are stuck with an Indian Ocean with lots of warm water in the west near Africa and cool water off the northwest coast of OZ(it looks like a positive IOD but doesn't quite tick the boxes with the anomalies not in the typical spots).

[Macedonian]

Nice rain here and a big shower of graupel as well.

3.4C now