Front for tomorrow looks ok, but not great. Thinking maybe 10mm for Ferny Creek, with most of Vic getting less. Ok falls near the coast and ranges, but nothing too remarkable. Airmass ahead of the front is quite mild, and there is actually a weak warm front in eastern areas which is ushering in warmer uppers ahead of the cold front. Thinking probably sleet or rain in the alps initially, dropping tomorrow with a decent top up. Will be nice cold air by Saturday which could throw up a bit of frost.
Been up at Mt Buffalo this arvo and we spitting rain from about 4pm at 1600m.
Next weeks sequence looks rather cooler, with a quite extreme fetch of southerlies as the high is way way south. The set up reminds of the the best could outbreaks that we tend to get with anticyclonic voriticity well south, becoming neutral then cyclonic over us. That sequence brings cold and very unstable air up so showers should be plentiful
just one thing that is a bit odd... I would have usually expected 850Ts well below -4C but models not that cold. Strange... maybe I'm missing something or the low ice extent in the southern ocean etc is messing a bit with our cold outbreak