Just putting in a change of season thread, that will see a conveyor belt of fronts clip Victoria over the next week . Then a potential polar pulse / large frontal or surface low for the start of winter. First front is due on May 23rd that will weaken as it passes through the state with a few mm expected in southern and moutain areas on most models.
Several "cold" fronts to come but none will bring temps down to average by the looks of it. 18 to 20 is hardly cold.
This month has been complete opposite for us down here at least. The first 15 days were all 13-16 degree maximums and 3 to 6 minimums, but this second half has been 17 to 19 maximums and 7 to 10 minimums!
Models look a touch more exciting this morning. EC has three frontal sequences here in the next ~week, each producing around 10-15mm for FC. Expect the ranges and coast will do ok, but most other spots will mainly see wind. Temperatures might drift down towards average from about Sunday.
Starting to need some rain with much of Vic stuck on less than 30% of the average May rainfall.
Another mild one today with 850Ts around 11C this arvo for much of Vic. Those temperature won't mix down as the sun is to feeble this time of year, but could still see the odd run at the mid 20s.
EC's last run has certainly turned it up a notch for end of Autumn, start of winter. Alps looking fairly white for June 1st and solid rain totals in areas around Melbourne's south east for the thread.
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Another mild sunny day in FC. Thankfully the last for a while with the return of showery weather for much of the next week.
Nothing too unusual across Vic today in temperatures, but Tasmania managed to sneak late season records at both Hobart and Hobart Ap (with 21.1 °C). Goes to show the uppers are quite warm, even though it didn't mix down for most of us today.
Front coming up on SA has a bit of punch with severe weather warnings out Going to be a blustery night as it moves across Vic.
Another mild night with a dying front approaching. Hoping this gets a bit of a kick when it hits the bay, but that might be a but much to ask for.
Similar strength front for tomorrow.
EC throwing up a warm start to winter with 850Ts over 12C and a long spell of NWly flow. Bit off, but those numbers would see us get close to the Melbourne June record
hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue May 23, 2017 7:35 am
Another mild night with a dying front approaching. Hoping this gets a bit of a kick when it hits the bay, but that might be a but much to ask for.
Similar strength front for tomorrow.
EC throwing up a warm start to winter with 850Ts over 12C and a long spell of NWly flow. Bit off, but those numbers would see us get close to the Melbourne June record
The cold fronts just seem to have no punch right now.
But EC forecast looks wrong though - it might be based on a very +ve AAO when in reality it looks to be more neutral. Early June 1957 would be a tough record to beat, especially with cool SSTa out West atm.
That front has disintegrated on impact A bit of virga and a few spits but that's about it, 0.2mm also. Had a top of 16c yesterday which is fairly mild for here at this time of year.
Next featherweight front is tomorrow morning, about the same weak punch as today. Thursday the same again. Saturday night's front still looks the strongest as this stage.
EC now has a very big high pushing the first winter front further to the south.