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VIC: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2 2017

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VIC: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

Just putting in a change of season thread, that will see a conveyor belt of fronts clip Victoria over the next week . Then a potential polar pulse / large frontal or surface low for the start of winter. First front is due on May 23rd that will weaken as it passes through the state with a few mm expected in southern and moutain areas on most models.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by stevco123 »

Several "cold" fronts to come but none will bring temps down to average by the looks of it. 18 to 20 is hardly cold.

This month has been complete opposite for us down here at least. The first 15 days were all 13-16 degree maximums and 3 to 6 minimums, but this second half has been 17 to 19 maximums and 7 to 10 minimums!
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by hillybilly »

Models look a touch more exciting this morning. EC has three frontal sequences here in the next ~week, each producing around 10-15mm for FC. Expect the ranges and coast will do ok, but most other spots will mainly see wind. Temperatures might drift down towards average from about Sunday.

Starting to need some rain with much of Vic stuck on less than 30% of the average May rainfall.

Another mild one today with 850Ts around 11C this arvo for much of Vic. Those temperature won't mix down as the sun is to feeble this time of year, but could still see the odd run at the mid 20s.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by JasmineStorm »

EC's last run has certainly turned it up a notch for end of Autumn, start of winter. Alps looking fairly white for June 1st and solid rain totals in areas around Melbourne's south east for the thread.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by stevco123 »

Nice spike in temperature about 9am-ish, in line with the wind swinging around too and becoming breezy (excuse the fuzziness)

Went from 8 degrees to 16
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by hillybilly »

Another mild sunny day in FC. Thankfully the last for a while with the return of showery weather for much of the next week.

Nothing too unusual across Vic today in temperatures, but Tasmania managed to sneak late season records at both Hobart and Hobart Ap (with 21.1 °C). Goes to show the uppers are quite warm, even though it didn't mix down for most of us today.

Front coming up on SA has a bit of punch with severe weather warnings out :? Going to be a blustery night as it moves across Vic.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by stevco123 »

A lot less windier than i expected with a top of gust 16km/h so far.

That front looks increasingly drier as it comes through too.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by hillybilly »

Another mild night with a dying front approaching. Hoping this gets a bit of a kick when it hits the bay, but that might be a but much to ask for.

Similar strength front for tomorrow.

EC throwing up a warm start to winter with 850Ts over 12C and a long spell of NWly flow. Bit off, but those numbers would see us get close to the Melbourne June record :?
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by StratoBendigo »

hillybilly wrote: Tue May 23, 2017 7:35 am Another mild night with a dying front approaching. Hoping this gets a bit of a kick when it hits the bay, but that might be a but much to ask for.

Similar strength front for tomorrow.

EC throwing up a warm start to winter with 850Ts over 12C and a long spell of NWly flow. Bit off, but those numbers would see us get close to the Melbourne June record :?
The cold fronts just seem to have no punch right now.

But EC forecast looks wrong though - it might be based on a very +ve AAO when in reality it looks to be more neutral. Early June 1957 would be a tough record to beat, especially with cool SSTa out West atm.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by stevco123 »

0.2mm for this event so far. Received in the last 10 minutes. Woo-hoo!!

Can't see start of June being that warm. Quite the opposite in fact.

EC will come back into line for sure.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by JasmineStorm »

That front has disintegrated on impact :) A bit of virga and a few spits but that's about it, 0.2mm also. Had a top of 16c yesterday which is fairly mild for here at this time of year.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by Skywalker »

Well that front was a real non-event. It didn't even threaten my commute into work on the bike.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by Dane »

0.3mm's here MTD now 17.4mm's - ave is 62mm's.
My lowest In May since 2002 is 18.2mm's.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by occluded »

There was a front? ;) Sun is out and 18 degrees.

Might have to wait until June for some "proper weather"?!
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by StratoBendigo »

00Z GFS looks mediocre for the next week, and terrible into June.

I can't see any real winter weather between now and the Queen's Birthday Weekend, with Monday May 29th probably the closest we'll get to it.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by hillybilly »

A big fat zero in FC with today's front. May is turning into a disappointment weather wise... and the rest of the month doesn't look much better :roll:
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by JasmineStorm »

16c again here today, balmy.

Next featherweight front is tomorrow morning, about the same weak punch as today. Thursday the same again. Saturday night's front still looks the strongest as this stage.

EC now has a very big high pushing the first winter front further to the south.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by typhoon29 »

this mornings 'front' was just a bit of wind and some cloud. But beware the weak front, in the past they can bring thunderous surprises!
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by snowfall »

17c here today. And just a sprinkling this morning, which didn't register in the gauge. Feels more like April at the moment.
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Re: End of Autumn, Start of Winter May 23-June 2

Post by Geoff »

Either the "front" has entered the radar hole out west, or it has died a death before it's even got here. I favour the latter at the moment. :?
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