Thanks for the thread Harley34
Been looking at this set up for a little while.... here is my 2 cents worth on the next 10 days.
Initially a weak cold front will slip through Bass Strait tomorrow followed by a developing low that will move over Tassie. A few coastal showers for Victoria with widespread rain for Tassie. This will be followed by a few stable days across the weekend into Monday with cold nights for most of Victoria including frosts about the ranges.
Then it gets very interesting. EC, GFS, Access, CMC, CFS and USNavy all believe a surface low will exist in the bight around Tuesday May 16th and will slowly track eastward. From late Tuesday, Victoria will start to see showers develop with the approaching low which will tend to more widespread showers and rain on Wednesday. An upper low then possibly strengthens with the surface low whilst receiving a moisture feed from the Coral sea which kicks off a secondary rain event later in the week, that could go nuclear around the Alps. At this stage, some models (EC and GFS) then have a 970’s hPa epic cold core cyclone developing in the bight around May 20th but it is still early to take too seriously …
We have a complicated little thread on our hands which has plenty of severe weather potential. Let the upgrades and downgrades begin