Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

[JasmineStorm]

Looks like we need a new thread, with not much going in the first half.

High pressure to dominate over the next 6 days, with cool to mild Autumn conditions across the state. A front will clip southern Victoria on Good Friday with light showers and overcasts conditions in the south but generally the Easter weekend looks to have plenty of sunshine which will continue into next week.

At this stage, there is the potential for the appearance of an upper trough on Wednesday and another strong frontal system later next week. As you would expect, models are not aligned on a scenario at the moment, so it’s still a wait and see. Here are the current model scenarios for later next week.

EC = Upper trough Wednesday 19th, north west cloud band and cold front / low Friday 21st run 12z
GFS = Upper trough Wednesday 19th, strong cold front Thursday 20th , Tasman cut off low run 18z
CMC = North West Cloud band Thursday 20th, cold front and Bass strait cut off low Friday 21st run 12z
Access = North West cloud band, cold front Thursday 20th run 12z
CFS = Strong cold front Thursday 20th run 12z

[StratoBendigo]

EC is suggesting 45mm of rain next week for us. A long way out though.

[snowfall]

Looks like a relatively settled week ahead apart from a possible shower or two in Friday. Would be great to have a NW cloud band coming into the next system, but obviously too far out to know anything for sure. Lovely autumnal weather here today - sunny, mild, and now a cool evening. Got to 18.2c here and currently 12.1c. If the skies remain clear, it might be quite a cold morning tomorrow.

[JasmineStorm]

19.3c here today, a little bit warmer tomorrow.

Yes SB,Snowfall, still a long way to go. GFS and EC are certainly entertaining some big wet angry scenarios at the moment on their last runs for late next week

[stevco123]

Very thick fog down here, with visibility down to 50 metres. Haven't seen fog this thick in a very long time

[JasmineStorm]

Very thick fog down here, with visibility down to 50 metres. Haven't seen fog this thick in a very long time

Starting to show up clearly on the 7.50am sat pic .... Pea souper

[StratoBendigo]

Several forecast models have a seriously cold blast lined up for around 21st April.

[JasmineStorm]

Low of 6.6c and a top of 22.7c.

Yes SB, I was just looking at it as well.

GFS and EC are unusually and very well aligned such a long way out with the cold uppers and placements. It seems like the polar vortex has opened the freezer door early this year Still probably too early to lock it in but boy....it's becoming more compelling after todays 00z run. This could go volcanic next weekend in Vic /NSW if that cold bomb eventuates.

[snowfall]

A top of 22.1c here after a minimum of 7.9c overnight. Turned quite foggy again for some of the night but was clear by this morning. Wow, that cold blast looks incredible on the GFS and EC runs - would be amazing if it eventuated. Currently 12.9c here. Doesn't look like much rain here tomorrow. Maybe a little sprinkling at some point, but more likely just some grey skies.

[hillybilly]

Nice foggy morning here ATM, and expecting it to becoming drizzly by late morning.

Meanwhile, progs getting jumpy for next week. EC single run and EC ensemble are very different. GFS and ACCESS are still showing a strong front, while EC and CMC have a cut-off. The EC ensemble looks more like GFS.

Pretty clear next week could see one of two scenarios. There is a developing disturbance over WA which drifts south. If this enters the westerlies it opens up the opportunity for a series of fronts. If it stays north of the ridge then it drifts slowly east with a weaker disturbance.

[JasmineStorm]

Some light drizzling showers moving across the bay and SE Melbourne now.

EC 12z and now GFS 18z have the cold snap pushed south by high pressure, Access still in favour of the cold snap Thursday. Still a wait and see for the next few days I think.

[Skywalker]

Some light drizzling showers moving across the bay and SE Melbourne now.

Just drove through those showers on the way down to Cowes. Blue skies & sunshine now making an appearance here on the island.

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS run looks terrible. Very strong high pressure ridge well to our South. No rain in sight.

[Geoff]

00Z GFS run looks terrible. Very strong high pressure ridge well to our South. No rain in sight.

Yes, I noticed that, but it's been doing that for a few days now, flip-flopping from big rains to next to nothing on alternate runs.
EC still keen for reasonable falls from the 19th-22nd.

[mick]

I drained the tank in anticipation of the last event, only 500l but I didnt get 50 back.

Back to an indian summer.

[JasmineStorm]

Getting closer to frost season here, overnight min of 3c.

The initial cold snap modelled by all models has definitely disappeared into the deep southern ocean. I would think the BoM would start to tweak their forecast tonight. Currently the likely scenario is an extended fine spell with an upper low pressure trough towards the end of next week. The high pressure systems have migrated further north but the mild to warm Autumn weather pattern is hanging in there.

[Tassiedave]

Looks like a pretty dry next 8 to 10 days in Victoria and Tasmania. Lots of green on the eight day raincast.

[JasmineStorm]

Lots of high pressure to our west, keeping fronts south.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 78,-37.399

I can't see the wind swinging to the west or south for well over a week. An upper trough later in the week our only chance for a drop of rain. The high pressure systems have beaten up the models over the last couple of days

[Tassiedave]

The average temperature for Launceston in April is 20 degrees. It is forecast to get above that temperature for all of next week with maximum temperatures of 20,22,23,24,22,22,22. Hobart will reach 25 and Melbourne 26 mid next week.

[Geoff]

The average temperature for Launceston in April is 20 degrees. It is forecast to get above that temperature for all of next week with maximum temperatures of 20,22,23,24,22,22,22. Hobart will reach 25 and Melbourne 26 mid next week.

Yep, a bit of "deja vu" with the old blocking Tasman High back with a vengeance feeding more warm northerlies down over us. Oh well, it does make for some stunning autumnal weather, so no complaints from me!