Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

[JasmineStorm]

Latest GFS run thinks its quite warm just after lunch tomorrow.....

[Jake Smethurst]

Tomorrow looks hot but will likely be limited by increasing mid to high level cloud in my opinion. 34 is a good forecast by the BoM for Melbourne, doesn't look too likely to get any higher than that, might touch 35. Will be a scorcher for the usual suspects though, Mallee, parts of the Wimmera and Northern Country well into the high 30's and even low 40's! CFA have issued a fire ban for the districts I've just mentioned.

Unfortunately looks like a mostly dry change, just some isolated showers developing from the northwest but most of it will evaporate before it reaches the ground. Also small chance of some very isolated dry thunderstorms.

Nevertheless, it will be a hot day with fresh winds, hopefully I don't have to walk the rails!

[JasmineStorm]

I just had a maximum of 31.9c at 6.37pm....the good old northerly. I see Melbourne also just maxed out at 32.8 at 6.54pm. Warm night ahead.

[93ben]

I just had a maximum of 31.9c at 6.37pm....the good old northerly. I see Melbourne also just maxed out at 32.8 at 6.54pm. Warm night ahead.

Yeah Channel 7 said the temperature won't drop below 20 degrees overnight! Time to get rid of those doonas I guess lol

[Geoff]

I went and sat up at SkyHigh Mt Dandenong at lunchtime and it was quite a shock to see the distant landscape over to the west of Melbourne,the bay and the airport all looking that golden brown colour you expect during a hot dry summer, while up here in the hills we are still lush and green.
Mind you, we'll be turning a little less lush green up here soon if these next couple of systems don't deliver.

[Gordon]

28 C max today so no 30 C for December... so far. Tomorrow will be very close, but then it looks like another week of cool to mild temps for us.

Very difficult to follow the models atm, both for temps & rain. Still, if we can't have decent rain, lack of heat is a good second choice.

[stevco123]

I went and sat up at SkyHigh Mt Dandenong at lunchtime and it was quite a shock to see the distant landscape over to the west of Melbourne,the bay and the airport all looking that golden brown colour you expect during a hot dry summer, while up here in the hills we are still lush and green.
Mind you, we'll be turning a little less lush green up here soon if these next couple of systems don't deliver.

I actually had the same feeling today when i looked out the window and realised how green the grass is down here. I drove to Melbourne airport and it was a stark difference.

And i reckon tonight could get below 20 in the city, depending on when the northerly kicks in

[Didjman]

13C in Kilmore atm.

[hillybilly]

A min of 20C in FC (if you can call that a min ). Hot day today and nasty low humidity... lucky it's not a couple of degrees hotter and windier as it's got the makings of a bad fire day

Might get some dribbles tonight or not. GFS and ACCESS being playing with a light rainband post front, while EC has no interest.

Friday looking interesting again. The trough lying back in SA will dig south ahead of a second stronger front. EC now got substantial rain in central and eastern areas. ACCESS has some rain, while GFS mainly lack interest. Finely balanced as there is a good infeed of moisture into SA currently and will be upslide and cooler uppers. All comes down to whether this system gets drawn south far enough to impact us.

I actually had the same feeling today when i looked out the window and realised how green the grass is down here. I drove to Melbourne airport and it was a stark difference.

Is become noticably drier in the foot hills of the Dandenongs. Around Ferntree Gully etc the drier slopes are now starting to yellow. That typically happens about two week before the tops of the hills start to dry off. Gives us a window of about two weeks for another rain event (which we should get).

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting day ahead...I see a few little gaps in the clouds for a couple nice temp spikes.

As HB mentions....EC now thinks the inland trough/low takes a right turn and head south for Friday. The weather channel 6 hour model has become all excited this morning as well. Others still not on board.....

[Geoff]

300mm for Melbourne on Friday eh? Interesting!

[Gordon]

It's interesting, a lot of my farmer mates pay little or no attention to weather forecasts (at least not in the conventional sense) and I often find myself taking the condescending view that this makes them uniformed/ uneducated. But I look at the woeful forecasting for this system and the last one, and wonder if they might have a point?

[StratoBendigo]

A bit of a lottery for rain on Friday. Anything from 2 to 30 mm....

Anyway, some notable rain in Western Australia in the past 24 hours. 50mm in Kalgoorlie (which smashes the December daily record for the site that was established in 1939) demonstrates that this Indian Ocean Dipole thingy still has some punch to it and may continue to offer up some surprises.

[JasmineStorm]

Geelong just dropped 9 degrees in 10 minutes.... you can see the wind change line on the BoM radar.... Melbourne might get a late spike before its hits in an hour or so. Got to 34 here before the cloud capped it.

[Sean]

Interesting day ahead...I see a few little gaps in the clouds for a couple nice temp spikes.

As HB mentions....EC now thinks the inland trough/low takes a right turn and head south for Friday. The weather channel 6 hour model has become all excited this morning as well. Others still not on board.....

That chart... Not in a bazillion quintillion exxonmobileforfillian years

Well, unless: 0.300mm

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting day ahead...I see a few little gaps in the clouds for a couple nice temp spikes.

As HB mentions....EC now thinks the inland trough/low takes a right turn and head south for Friday. The weather channel 6 hour model has become all excited this morning as well. Others still not on board.....

That chart... Not in a bazillion quintillion exxonmobileforfillian years

Well, unless: 0.300mm

Yes, I can think we can safely say you will be correct I think the weather channel model went for the KABOOM scenario with a direct feed in from the monsoon trough. EC might be a little more realistic but all of them have been totally confused over a whole week of runs

[WeatherViewer]

Geelong just dropped 9 degrees in 10 minutes.... you can see the wind change line on the BoM radar.... Melbourne might get a late spike before its hits in an hour or so. Got to 34 here before the cloud capped it.

Is this the proper wind change? I thought we were expecting it much later tonight here in Melbourne.

[JasmineStorm]

Geelong just dropped 9 degrees in 10 minutes.... you can see the wind change line on the BoM radar.... Melbourne might get a late spike before its hits in an hour or so. Got to 34 here before the cloud capped it.

Is this the proper wind change? I thought we were expecting it much later tonight here in Melbourne.

Just a little trough to drop it to mid 20s and enough to cool down a panting dog. Northerly might even creep in again before the stronger southerly

[hillybilly]

Down to 26C in FC now. Fell just short of 30C with 29.6C. That's hot for us. Glad it's over and no fires. Really horrible dry air with today's front... lucky things are still pretty green.

Progs got the odd shower overnight so hoping to sneak a mm or two. GFS now got showers and storms for Friday, and showers for Saturday so some reason to think we might get something.

[JasmineStorm]

Another day of upgrades and downgrades almost complete. EC has moved the low again and performed its 12 hourly downgrade...... I've gone from 25mm to zero again with almost everyone else in Vic on the latest EC run.

Other notables mentions - Possible storm outbreak modelled on GFS next Tuesday Dec 20th, EC modelled a 960 hPa cyclone off Broome Dec 23rd, Moderate heat wave modelled on GFS for Vic between Christmas day and Dec 29th