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Hobart/TAS: Day to Day Weather Talk

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Jake Smethurst
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Hobart/TAS: Day to Day Weather Talk

Post by Jake Smethurst »

All things in relation to general weather for Tasmania in here!! :D
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Very windy night in Tassie due to that very impressive Low to our South. 10.4 mm of rain here in Grindelwald (15km north of Launceston) over the weekend. Some cold weather coming up especially for the Central Highlands and the South of the state. Projecting forward the ACCESS model sees a Low forming in the middle of next week over Tasmania.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by crikey »

great to hear from you..'tassiedave' . Fabulous to hear from someone in 'tassie '. Hope you drop in to the Tasmania thread often!!
Thanks for the heads up for around the 18th of January..and the ACCESS pictorial forecast
Be good to see how accurate it is this far out from the 18th.
look forward to updates
Looks like a potential rain event for you
regards
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Rivergirl »

Hi Tassie Dave, always interested to hear anything you have to say about Tassie weather. My sister and husband live in Huonville and I pass on info to them. Thanks for all your hard work too crikey, always an interesting read.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

It will be a cold day in Tasmania tomorrow. Already showers are prominent in the South and west. This sort of weather pattern rarely results in significant rain in the Central North. If you check out the North West Tassie 512 composite radar in these conditions you will see showers everywhere in Tasmania and Southern Victoria except for the region around and to the east of Launceston.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR521.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

As expected most of the rain fell last night on the West coast with falls up to 30mm. There was also a fall of 20mm on Flinders Island. There was no rain in Launceston. Today there were frequent showers throughout the state but once again very hit and miss. Falls in the South of up to 8mm on Mount Wellington but mostly less than 2 mm in the North. We had 1.4 mm here at Grindelwald. I went for a walk today in the Narawntapu National Park on the Central north coast of Tasmania. Occasional showers were drifting from the south and disappearing quickly into Bass Strait.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by crikey »

Really appreciate the updates' Tassiedave'. Gives some incentive and motivation to 'look into' Tasmanian weather
I must say with great embarrassment l didn't know where Launceston was until l looked at the radar link you posted. :oops: But l do know now LOL


Our weather media in Melbourne has mentioned some snow reported on some of your mounts , yesterday l think.
Noticed on BOM obs tonight ,Mt wellington got down to -1.3deg c at 5.30am in the morning and currently reporting 8mm of rain or snow today so far
The daily mean is apparently 4.4 deg c , so some 5 deg C below the mean.

Had a look at some stats for mt wellington to see how often snow could fall in January.
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I selected data from the last 14 years
Station: Mount Wellington
Number: 94087

Opened: 1961
Now: Open
Lat: 42.90° S Lon: 147.24° E
Elevation: 1260 m

That is not as high as mt Baw Baw in Vic which has an elevation of about 1561m

Here is a record of the no of days in a January that temps fall at or below zero for a chance of snow on Mt wellington in a January
1998 = 1 day
1999 = 1
2000 = 5
2001 = 0
2002 = 0
2003 = 1
2004 = 7 !!
2005 = 1
2006 = 1
2007 = 3
2008 = 2
2009 = 7 !! ( 2nd January 2009, the lowest recorded at -3.4 deg c..since 1961)
2010 = 0
2011 = 0
2012 = 2 ( so far)

As you can see. Nothing good on TV tonight. As usual.LOL :laughing:
cheers
Last edited by crikey on Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks Tassie Dave and crikey. My brother in law wrote to say they had snow on the hills around Huonville today.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Rivergirl »

My sister lives in Ranelagh near Huonville and my sister in law lives past Launceston near Gravelly Beach :) We make the trip between the two every time we go to visit. Only takes 3 and a half hours
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Hi Rivergirl I live about 10 minutes drive from Gravelly Beach in the Tamar Valley. Its a good rainfall area here averaging around 750mm each year. Tasmania has great fluctuations in rainfall between areas only 100km apart. For example Oatlands in the Southern Midlands has a mean rainfall of 550mm whereas Queenstown on the West Coast is up at 2500mm per year. Tasmania has the reputation for being wet and cold but its rainfall in most parts is not as high as many people would think. Our rain intensity is also lower here, I often get jealous when I see the yellow, orange and red colours on mainland radars. If we get into the aqua we get excited! Its been very dry here of late with only 15mm since December the 20th! Thanks for your stats on Mt Wellington Crikey yes it can snow (and settle) at any time of the year! Typical tassie summer day here today Fine and mid twenties.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

A pleasant 27 degrees here currently and plenty of sunshine. Highest in the state at the moment is Bushy Park in the Derwent Valley at 30.0 degrees.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by crikey »

Howdy tassiedave.. Had to go and look up Derwent valley In Tassie. :oops:
Oh well about time l learnt about Tasmania.
The media in Melbourne has been highlighting the fact that the bakers are making Australia day cookies without Tasmania attached.! :o
Does that happen in Tasmania as well?
Went to our bakery this morning and 'loh and behold' Australia shaped biscuits. without Tasmania.!! Of course i wouldn't buy one
The Media is saying that is bad as we teach our children that 'tassie' is not part of Australia.( subliminal message)
Anyway l thought this subliminal message had soaked in over time as l know little about Tassie. I vowed to try and learn a little bit this year.
Here is a start.. I found the Derwent River! LOL
Image
and where is bushy park?

Looks like the ACCESS 240 hrs synoptic forecast you posted some time ago was spot on re timing but just overestimated the intensity of low and troughing a little ,from what l can tell.
Not bad hey, for that far out 8-)

The WATL surface wind forecast is indicating from
Tuesday 17th Jan f2012.. from 10pm to.. Wednesday18th Jan lunchtime
a small partial surface low over' Tassie' at this time

That should give you some action..
What is expected re rainfall and storms for that time period at this stage? All parts of the state?
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Rivergirl »

So you're probably not that far from my sisterinlaw Tassie Dave. She is at Robigana which is 4 minutes from Gravelly Beach.

Crikey if you ever get a chance try and go to Tassie, it's an awesome place. I've lost count of the number of times I've been.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Yes Crikey, the biggest contraversy was when Tassie was left off the map in the 1982 Commonwealth Games Opening Ceremony.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Commo ... g_ceremony" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"This aspect of the Opening Ceremony was not without controversy. The map of Australia showed no demarcation of States. Also not shown was Bass Strait, the body of water which separates the island state of Tasmania from the mainland of Australia. This led many Tasmanians to believe that their state had been, either deliberately or inadvertently, forgotten."

It took a long time for us to get over this!!

Anyway back to the weather. The Derwent Valley is the warmest place in Tasmania in this northerly weather pattern. Tomorrow New Norfolk is set for 35 degrees which is pretty high for Tasmania. There is also a total fire ban in place for Southern Tassie. The BOM has also forecast possible storms over the Central Highlands tomorrow afternoon.

Yes Rivergirl it is an awesome place. Went swimming today at Bridport on the north Coast. The water was as warm as I've experienced down here. It is still 21 degrees here at near 10 pm which is also unusual.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Rivergirl »

Tassie Dave, my sisterinlaw who lives at Robigana has a holiday place at Bridport :) we've been there a few times
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Highest temps to 1 pm are 32 degrees in Hobart and Bushy Park. Should push to 35 as the afternoon progresses. 28 in Launceston and high cloud.
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Hobart reached 36 degrees today a higher maximum than Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane!
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

27 degrees currently in Launceston. There was 1 - 5 mm overnight in the North of the state with brief downpours around 1 am. The South fared better with 18mm falling in Hobart due to some thunderstorm activity.
Here are some pictures
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/20 ... -news.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by crikey »

Thanks for the updates' tassiedave' :P

So the Hobart paper is called... 'the Mercury'

I noticed those storms on storm tracker last night . The Victorian stormchasers would have been envious. We had such a weak change in western Vic in particular
I like this from your link
storm chasers in Hobart too hey!
Image

Checked the records re mean temps for Hobart and l learnt about the mean temp for Hobart in a January, calculated from data collected since 1882 ( 129 years of data)
( now that is a good collection of data)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Station: Hobart (Ellerslie Road)
Number: 94029
Opened: 1882
Now: Open
Lat: 42.89° S Lon: 147.33° E Elevation: 51 m

Mean max temp in January in Hobart is 21.6 deg c.
So the temp of 36 deg in Hobart the other day was around 14 deg c above the mean

The highest daily max temp recorded in Hobart since since 1882 was 40.8 deg c in 1976 :o
and for latitude 42 deg C South , l find that amazing !

Years of highest temp in January over 40 deg c are
1900
1959
1973
1976

4 out of 129 years where the max temp reached over 40 deg C ( a rare event) 8-)


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=094029" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tasmania Day to Day Weather

Post by Tassiedave »

Another warm day in Tassie, 30 in Hobart and 33 in the Derwent Valley. A pleasant 26 here in Grindelwald and not a cloud to be seen. Tomorrow a trough sits over us so there could be storms about. 30 degrees forecast for Launceston.
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