Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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droughtbreaker
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by droughtbreaker » Sat May 25, 2013 2:20 pm

Almost t-shirt weather here today. Avalon at over 20C is the warmest in the state so far.

About 14C here. Heaps more days like this to come too with no real end in sight. GFS is pushing through -2C 850Ts for a very brief period on Friday night and Saturday morning but then it warms right up again by the end of the day. :? -2 850T usually means snow down to about 900m at this time of year.

Any cold front/upper trough that manages to sneak its way through will produce good rain under the current oceanic conditions. It seems to be an eternal wait though for this to happen.

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by stratospear » Sat May 25, 2013 5:16 pm

Very mild air-mass over us today and for most of the coming week. Good to see considerable convergence in most of the forecast models for this time next week. GFS very optimistic for 50-75mm+ falls over much of the Divide :)

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by droughtbreaker » Sat May 25, 2013 5:38 pm

Yep, EC, GFS and the OCF all trending to a more typical winter pattern starting around Thursday. Cooler temps by about a degree or two than in this morning's runs and a prolonged period of rain and showers, set to be heaviest next weekend at this stage. Good falls expected right up into the Mallee and beyond which is very promising and would constitute the 'Autumn break'.

What I find interesting is, despite the contracting westerlies over Aus, the LWTs always seem to amplify over NZ. A massive cold outbreak due there on Tuesday with -5C 850T extending right to the tip of the South Island and 0C 850T extending to around 30 degrees latitude. Perhaps we just have to wait for the SAM to go negative (which apparently is forecast to occur in coming weeks) for our turn. :?

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Geoff » Sat May 25, 2013 5:56 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:What I find interesting is, despite the contracting westerlies over Aus, the LWTs always seem to amplify over NZ
Yes Andrew, I've been watching the Southern Hemisphere synoptic charts quite regularly over the last few years, and while the cold fronts (LWT's) don't seem to have made much impression over Australia, they have been surging way north up over South America, South Africa and New Zealand giving them some severe wintry outbreaks with low level snow over places like Buenos Aries and Johannesburg. If they can do it over those regions they can do it over us, just a matter of luck with the positioning of the LWT's when and where they peak, it seems to me. Any thoughts? :)
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by johnno » Sun May 26, 2013 5:02 pm

Gees models struggling big time this coming week so much difference between UK, GFS, EC and ACCESS never seen EC chop and change so much the past 5-6 runs, GFS not much better. One thing for sure there will be a strong LWT to come through somewhere through Southern Australia the next 7 days and some areas of Southern Australia will get a decent drink

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by johnno » Sun May 26, 2013 5:20 pm

EC and some degree UK have a stalling cloudband and rainband over parts of South Australia, SW NSW and NW, Northern Vic over the coming week starting Thursday EC has 50-100mm in some areas, interesting how CMC and GFS push the LWT through friday and sat in SE OZ but EC and UK cut the cold air off in SW SA allowing this rainband to stall

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by johnno » Sun May 26, 2013 5:23 pm

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Geoff » Sun May 26, 2013 5:50 pm

:o :o :o 70mm in Mildura??? When was the last time that happened ? That would be too much rain for the farmers up there surely, would lead to rotting crops and mould problems. Norwegian only going for 7mm here, which seems a tad low to me.
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droughtbreaker
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by droughtbreaker » Sun May 26, 2013 6:14 pm

EC is too smart for its own good. Rainfall totals are varying widely from place to place, it's going for a massive rain shadow effect for the Thursday system and also net weekend. It's shearing the LWT apart and weakening it out, whereas GFS looks a lot more straightforward and has been more consistent over the past day or so at least (despite previous days varying widely from run to run with respect to rainfall totals).

I reckon it's best to ignore the details atm and just look at the general pattern, i.e. a trend for resurgent westerlies in coming weeks as the SAM trends negative. Models will still try to conjure up weird and wonderful scenarios from run to run but in reality this usually doesn't happen. Climate follows patterns to a large degree.

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Gordon » Sun May 26, 2013 6:32 pm

Interesting to see BOM going for rain for us Thursday Friday which is more or less contrary to EC and ACCESS, but backs GFS and (I think?) droughtbreaker's take on things.

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Geoff » Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:04 pm

OK folks, just talk amongst yourselves until something less boring occurs. :roll:
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Rivergirl » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:30 am

:P It's been a while :)

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by norwester » Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:12 am

Ok guys - in one week I will no longer be a Victorian - we are off to WA for ever (Bunbury). I'm thinking the weather will be somewhat different from NW Vic!! We have a rented house 100m from Binninup beach and sea views (pity we can't afford to buy it!) so I'm expecting some fabulous sunsets and great storm vistas.
Not to be outdone, Mildura put on this fantastic sunset last night - I will miss big sky country!!Image
Dry, dusty and hot - usually!

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Rivergirl
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Rivergirl » Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:23 am

Gorgeous sunset. All the best norwester on your big move to WA. It will definitely be a change of scenery living near the beach :)

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by blackmamba » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:04 am

So, yesterday was pretty impressive I thought.
Hail, flooding at Fountain Gate car park for one.
Image

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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Jake Smethurst » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:40 pm

Big contrast again! Fantastic day today with a mix of sun and cloud. The warmth from the sun is just amazing! :)
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Geoff » Mon Nov 03, 2014 6:18 pm

Yes, two more contrasting days you couldn't imagine!
Family are camping up at Mt. Timbertop near Mt. Buller and said it was very frosty there this morning! :o
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Jake Smethurst » Tue Nov 04, 2014 6:56 am

A few showers and the odd high-based thunderstorm over the far west this morning. Should translate towards the East during the day. Storm risk isn't that good but you never know. :)
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Jake Smethurst » Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:27 pm

A pretty dull period of weather for most of Victoria at the moment. A cold front clipped Gippsland coastal parts this morning and is the reason why there is some shower activity over southern parts, but apart from that it's dry. Outlook doesn't really indicate much significant rainfall either, except will have to watch where a low pressure system develops in the Tasman Sea. Could be close to Gippsland and therefore more rainfall there.

Bit fresh here today, but no rainfall since I've woken up. Must have been a little bit early this morning as the ground was marginally wet.
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Re: Victoria: Day to Day weather talk

Post by Geoff » Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:43 pm

Was a brief shower just as it got light this morning Jake, and I noticed some small black cored cells between Pakenham and Wonthaggi around 5am-6am.
I'm still adjusting to Oz time after returning from the UK on Friday night, hence my early observations! :laughing:
Just out of interest, I noticed an amazing temperature inversion coming in to land at Tullamarine on Friday 9pm. Temperature rose from the usual -50C at 35,000 ft up to +18C at 7000ft, when it then dropped back down to 11C at 5000ft, before rising back to 19C on landing. The warm layer at 7000ft presumably responsible for killing off any shower activity that might have occurred that night.
Found 88mm rain in the Nylex on my return, presumably most of that fell this month, as the garden had continued to grow at an alarming rate in my absence. :o
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