Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

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hillybilly
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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:29 am

Frustrating miss yesterday for those south of the ranges :roll: Progs picked it pretty generally, occasionally putting a bit over us but mainly north of us.

The warmth just basically rolls on. Might sneak a bit of drizzle tomorrow morning at home (and around the coast), and still a bit of instability over the northeast and east.

Fridays front looks ok. Very good moisture infeed with PW values likely to go past 50mm which is close to the old January record (before 2011). Comes down to the upslide and instability, but most models wanting to give us around 5-20mm. Thankfully we look to miss the scorching heat with NSW going to see some nasty heat.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:27 am

We managed 12mm yesterday. More than I was expecting.

Temps look like peaking at around 46c in NW NSW this week. Just a bit toasty.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:44 am

The more I look at this system on Friday, the more volatile it seems. Models and forecasts don't really reflect this entirely at the moment but that looks like a strong southern ocean frontal system and there is a lot of tropical moist air feeding the trough before the front. On GFS there seems is be significant updraft rotation around the front. My early tip is a big gust front across the state and Melbourne will get an angry looking shelfie rolling over the bay Friday afternoon ;)

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by Macedonian » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:00 am

It must be looking very nice up around Mansfield and the Ovens Valley areas

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by Sean » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:00 pm

...and Innisfail bests Melbourne's entire 2016 rain tally in the first 10 days of the 2017.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:17 pm

Check out the latest runs of GFS and EC (early Friday set up) runs relating to 850 hPa winds and rotation for Friday afternoon in central Vic. That is one strong frontal system if it lines up that way. Kid's trampolines will be going down the suburban streets like tumbleweeds.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-36.80;144. ... 3/06&m=gfs
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-36.80;144. ... 3/06&m=gfs
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=187

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:35 pm

Late top of 32c here. Obviously it's warming up in the centre. Looks like the monsoon trough is weakening again over the next week. If that hot air in Qld,NSW and SA gets trapped, it will be an interesting end to our January.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:46 am

Another warm one in FC with plenty of humidity (started with fog).

Little front coming up today to chill things and maybe drop a few spots.

Am now liking Friday's system. Will have a record infeed of moisture for January (if progs are correct)... err would be a record if we didn't break the old record by nearly 20% in the January 2011 system. The precipitable water values are similar to those that we saw in December which set lots of records, including the highest dewpoint in Victoria and South Australia.

Rain all comes down to the trigger remaining strong enough, which it does ATM.

Further north scorching heat continues. Going to be very hot north of the state into NSW and Qld wih a string of low 40s to mid 40s for many inland locations (current forecasts suggest we may well see some record break for duration and record warm nights). Lucky we are going to stay south of this most of the time.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:05 am

Small rainfall upgrades across all models keep coming for Friday. Generally looks like 5 to 20mm across a wide area. If that upper trough holds its strength when it gets to Vic, there will be a large last minute upgrade but there is doubt on that. IMO, BoM will issue a severe weather warning for Friday associated with damaging winds.

Next week still throwing up some interesting scenario's http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 231#p98231

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:19 pm

Cooler day today, but warming up tomorrow. Scorching to our north, but thankfully mostly staying there. 46C in Bourke and plenty of 42 to 44C away from the coast and ranges :?

Fridays showing a near record infeed of tropical moisture with latest GFS having precipitable water values near 60mm in Melbourne. They could well be a record were it not the for off the scale event in January 2011.

Most progs showing a pretty good rainband now. But, looks a bit rainshadowed areas to Melbournes west may struggle. Think about 20mm in FC. Looks ok for more rain next week with more tropical moisture filtering down, but some ways off ;)

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:57 am

BOM are really talking up this front for South Australia by suggesting 80mm falls possible on Mt Lofty range. And yet ensemble models reckon only 5mm here tomorrow.

Drenching rain to arrive after scorching heat in SA http://ab.co/2j2coPc - via @abcnews

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:23 am

Interesting little set up on the 10.40am Sat pic. My 2 cents worth
Attachments
12012016 Sat pic 10.40am.jpg
12012016 Sat pic 10.40am.jpg (271.23 KiB) Viewed 939 times

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:56 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV20032.html

1st warning - Fairly predictable for up here, wouldn't be surprised if the map widens in the next 12 hours.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by Dane » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:32 pm

BOM have downgraded things quite a bit, just saying patchy rain tomorrow for Melbourne and 1 to 3 mm's.
Not what I was hoping for, have had less than 1mm so far this year. :x

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by Gordon » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:45 pm

This system has had me confused for days; GFS has never liked it and even now, with SA's SWW for heavy rainfall right through the southern half (which hilariously stops at the border as if it's a brick wall) GFS only has 10 mm or so for the same area??

Obviously some disconnect between the ample moisture and lift, although the front/ low looks pretty significant? Front/ low running too far ahead of the moisture? But that seems plain weird given their proximity to each other now.

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:03 pm

Gordon wrote:This system has had me confused for days; GFS has never liked it and even now, with SA's SWW for heavy rainfall right through the southern half (which hilariously stops at the border as if it's a brick wall) GFS only has 10 mm or so for the same area??

Obviously some disconnect between the ample moisture and lift, although the front/ low looks pretty significant? Front/ low running too far ahead of the moisture? But that seems plain weird given their proximity to each other now.
Certainly is an interesting one......most models have the upper trough weakening significantly near the Vic border, so we just get a limp rain band past the western district. Access thought more rain initially but has come into line with GFS on its last run for Vic. As normal, S.A will probably get most of it again....and we'll get the wind :(

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by stevco123 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:49 pm

Looks like it's not new year yet for the weather.

The boringness of 2016 continues...
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:32 pm

Another hot one up here, 34.1c..... it's getting really dry now....need this system to upgrade before next Tuesday hits but I don't think there is a lot in it past the western district at the moment based on the models. Monster storm on the western S.A border on the 8.10pm sat pic.....-80c on the cloud top :o Melbourne just had its maximum at 8.05pm....unusual

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:56 am

Hot out there already at 24C here (that's about 30C sea level equivalent).

Just started raining. Big drops falling from a long distance so small ones have all evaporated. Expecting about 10mm here today. Unfortunately the upper and surface systems arent moving together and the system peaks to our west. Could get double that or half depending on minor tweaks to the Synoptics.

We really need a decent fall. Drying out fast here now and will be all baked off within a week if it doesn't rain. Crazy that we've had good rain, but the unrelenting warmth inbetween just cooks things (some parts of eastern OZ are headed for one of their hottest month).

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Re: Another warm to hot week with weak troughs. January 9 to 16

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:59 am

Wind seemed to pick up around 3am
The morning has greeted us with hot air, hot pink sky and big fat drops..
Welcome friday 13

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