VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

[occluded]

26C here, no wind and overcast. I'll eat my hat if it gets to 37C.

If the amount of dust on the bike after the Warburton Trail ride yesterday is any guide, it's very dry out there. BoM only showing 1-3mm for here tomorrow.

[JasmineStorm]

Cloud breaks up here, especially to the NW. My temp has gone from 23c to 30c in the last 90 minutes.

[Horts]

Just pulled up to jump on the SUP on the bay, 23 degrees with a slight SW'ly with thick cloud.

As said above, if this jumps 12 degrees after 12pm I'll eat not only my hat but my SUP board aswell, think they might've got this one very wrong, for my local area anyway.

Edit: And now it's raining.

[Adam38]

Suns out here and temp has jumped from 31c to 34c in the last hour.

[wolfcat]

Wow the spikes are at least 5c across the metro area the second the cloud goes, looks like there might a lot of hat eating this arvo.

[jimmyay]

I remember similarly strange weather in Christmas week 2016. Early extreme humidity and 23,24, even some drizzle, sun broke through in the afternoon and within an hour or two it was 38 degrees and baking dry! Got to love Melbourne’s summer. It all gets a bit over-wrought

[Gordon]

It's turned into quite a nasty afternoon here with wind gusting to 45 km/h and 31C - bark and leaves flying everywhere. Fortunately, humidity is okay but even so, I wouldn't want to see a fire start in these conditions. Just heard a rumble so hoping we don't get many dry lightning strikes.

Weird weather and difficult forecasting. I had today down as a break from the heat and fire risk, but in fact it feels like the worst fire day in the thread dates. Not quite as hot, but definitely the nastiest wind.

[Adam38]

Yes that wind has just hit here and is quite squally with dust and leaves blowing around.

[Gordon]

Now raining enough to wet the ground and down to 27C. Big rumble a few minutes ago. I can't keep up

[mick]

Down here on the Gippy Coast, so far this summer we have had two days above 35.
Now its about 26 witha bit of humidity, been like that for a week or two.
Last year we got 350mm of rain.
Supposed to get 750mm
Gippsland is stuffed, its getting the same amount of rain, if not less than Burra in SA.

[Wilko]

Looks like the Heat has played havoc with Geelong temp
2pm 26c
4.30 35c

[Andy]

Yep went up real quick! A gusty warm front

[Sean]

Down here on the Gippy Coast, so far this summer we have had two days above 35.
Now its about 26 witha bit of humidity, been like that for a week or two.
Last year we got 350mm of rain.
Supposed to get 750mm
Gippsland is stuffed, its getting the same amount of rain, if not less than Burra in SA.

And that's despite a really warm Tasman..

[JasmineStorm]

A cold snap up here today, dropped back to a max of 36c

EC just keeps producing a once in a decade summer monster for late next week. That is 4 runs in a row now. Today's 00z run has the upper low cutting off near W.A delaying the frontal approach by 24 hour to Friday into Victoria, supported by the jet stream. Mallee 48c, Areas around Melbourne 45c with widespread 70 to 90km gusts. The synoptics of tonight's run has a haunting resemblance to 7th Feb 2009 with a monsoon trough, cyclone off the W.A coast, an inland trough, upper cold core low, strong jet stream and cold front. Maybe and hoping the downgrades are still to come....

[Tassiedave]

Max temps in Tas today: Ouse 32.5, Fingal 29.5, Cressy 29.0, Launceston 27.6, Hobart 25.2, St Helens 25.0, Devonport 23.2

[hillybilly]

29C here today. Makes four hot ones in a row for us. Trees starting to feel it now with lots of leaf and bark drop. We had a good six weeks of rain in Nov/Dec but that’s not enough now Gardens getting a good water around the house most nights but can’t keep up with the evaporation ATM

Progs all downgraded rain prospects. 0.4mm here today with one rumble. About the same tomorrow if ECs correct

A cold snap up here today, dropped back to a max of 36c

EC just keeps producing a once in a decade summer monster for late next week. That is 4 runs in a row now. Today's 00z run has the upper low cutting off near W.A delaying the frontal approach by 24 hour to Friday into Victoria, supported by the jet stream. Mallee 48c, Areas around Melbourne 45c with widespread 70 to 90km gusts. The synoptics of tonight's run has a haunting resemblance to 7th Feb 2009 with a monsoon trough, cyclone off the W.A coast, an inland trough, upper cold core low, strong jet stream and cold front. Maybe and hoping the downgrades are still to come....

That 0Z run is awful. One in twenty year type set up, or at least used to be.

The ensembles are all less bad, which suggests it will downgrade. Still, even a five degree downgrade is 40C Prospects for rain in the next ten days look pretty grim. Hoping to see something change, but each sign of rain disappears as we get closer to the event.

[stevco123]

Not doubting you Jasmine, or anyone else, but I'm not seeing anything significant next week. I only see tempsas high as 28 to 32 for Melbourne.

Different story north of the divide.

But for down here i just don't see it.

Still a long way off

[JasmineStorm]

Not doubting you Jasmine, or anyone else, but I'm not seeing anything significant next week. I only see tempsas high as 28 to 32 for Melbourne.

Different story north of the divide.

But for down here i just don't see it.

Still a long way off

You certainly aren't doubting me Stevco, its EC you are questioning Hope you are right

[hillybilly]

Min of 21C here which is about our average maximum for January We got 0.2mm more overnight. Rained heavily for about 30 seconds around 2am.

Overcast and looks a bit spitty for today. Maybe a mm or two If we are lucky. It’s quite unstable this arvo and humidity is good with precipitable water values above 40mm but only a weak trigger with the surface and upper trough both quite feeble. Looks a bit better in the northeast, though lightning will be a real concern with the forests now very dry

As expected models scaled back for next week. Hopefully it sticks. Still, EC has two days around 40C in Melbourne and temperatures near 45C for the Mallee. Those numbers would be extreme in a normal summer, but seem a bit ho hum atm

[occluded]

Got to 34.1C at Viewbank yesterday - 33.4C on the PWS briefly around 3pm - so the hat remains uneaten.

Not liking the looks of late next week if EC is anything to go by - appreciate the analysis on here as always from all.