VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

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snowfall
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by snowfall » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:09 pm

Got up to 33.1c here today. Apart from a little moderation in temps over the weekend, looks like a lot more hot weather to come this week. The landscape is looking dry around here now, and it’s a little worrying that there doesn’t appear to be any decent rain on the horizon. :|

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Dane » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:09 pm

Melbourne very late Max of 30.4 at 7.14pm
Only reached 27.1c here in Seaholme.
Kept cool by a sea breeze.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Adam38 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:29 am

A very warm 27c outside atm, already past the forecast temp of 25c 🤷‍♂️

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:01 am

29C in FC yesterday. Our hot summers looks like grinding on. Mid 30s to low 40s in the north for the next seven days. Mainky high 20s to high 30s south. Olympic Park and other sea breeze prone sites will get relief, but away from them it’s going to be quite hot right through. Potential for a bad fire day round Friday when the heat finally meets a change :? So potential we will break the pattern about Friday next week, but too far out to be confident.

This summer is going to write lots of records for heat. Thus far been lucky that the very hottest air has mostly stayed over the elevated inland areas.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by stevco123 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:39 am

Adam38 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:29 am
A very warm 27c outside atm, already past the forecast temp of 25c 🤷‍♂️
They will calculate today's maximum as of 9am. The current 27 is not the maximum for today. :)

Also currently raining here, a big contrast to the forecast "mainly sunny"
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 am

stevco123 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:39 am
Adam38 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:29 am
A very warm 27c outside atm, already past the forecast temp of 25c 🤷‍♂️
They will calculate today's maximum as of 9am. The current 27 is not the maximum for today. :)

Also currently raining here, a big contrast to the forecast "mainly sunny"
We've had two brief showers. This is classic elevated warm front rainfall marking the onset of increasing warm air advection aloft. The movement of the showers from westsouthwest to eastnortheast tells you all the cooler air is to our east.

Looking closely at models, going to be some nasty heat today just across the border. This spreads south as the week goes on. The Victoria January record is at some risk on both Tuesday and Wednesday with spots in the Mallee likely to land in the 44 to 47C range :( :o :?

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:52 am

Hillybilly is there a chance Melbourne could go higher than the 37,35,32 forecast for Monday- Wednesday?

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:11 am

I've extended the dates - heat certainly won't be over by the 14th!

We're finely balanced here between heat and cool; 29C late max yesterday; up to 27C already today but supposedly won't get much higher.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:19 am

Mildura 39.3 at 11 am!!

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 14 Jan 2019

Post by occluded » Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:57 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 am
We've had two brief showers. This is classic elevated warm front rainfall marking the onset of increasing warm air advection aloft. The movement of the showers from westsouthwest to eastnortheast tells you all the cooler air is to our east.
Yes some interesting weather early this morning out on the bike. Left home (@100m ASL) at 23C and felt several degrees cooler just down the hill.

Going through Research around 60m ASL and it switched from cooler to warmer instantly, like a fan heater had been switched on! Had some dark clouds around Kangaroo Ground then some light showers with fat drops down the hill through Warrandyte.

Sun was beating down by the end of course :)

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm

Warm day in Launceston 29.6 degrees currently

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by flyfisher » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:16 pm

Remember the flash drought last summer? Well looks like this is how our summer are to be now. Cannot see decent rain for a long time.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:53 pm

Today's max temps in Tas: Launceston 30.3, Scottsdale 29.6, St. Helens 29.5 Devonport 28.6, Fingal 28.3, Wynyard 26.4, Hobart 23.7

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Sean » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:42 pm

Pleasant past couple of days. Getting real dry though. Already crispy in places. Would hate to live anywhere north of the divide and west of the city.

Inland areas cooking away. Hopefully the monsoon gets cranking, otherwise it will just go on and on like it has done for weeks now.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Adam38 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:20 pm

I was driving between Bacchus Marsh and Barwon Heads yesterday and noticed just how very dry the landscape is.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:02 am

flyfisher wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:16 pm
Remember the flash drought last summer? Well looks like this is how our summer are to be now. Cannot see decent rain for a long time.
Yep, really starting to dry out now. Three weeks since the last proper rain here. Will get to four looking at the Progs. We have had three mini events during that period, but they dropped only 5, 5 and 4mm so all dried up in a day or so.

We’ve had three spells up here of 6-7 weeks without proper rain (back in 2003, 2009 and 2018). They each hammered the vegetation, so hoping we don’t get another one. The one last year killed a lot of trees and ferns, and was the worst in the past 18 years :?

Progs pointing to a possible rain event this coming Friday/Saturday. Not huge, but maybe 5-15mm pretty widely. Too far off to get too excited, but first event that has shown up for a while. Meanwhile, a week of heat. Not too bad in the south, but the north will have another historic heatwave. EC showing two 46Cs for Mildura which is extreme for even them.

Up here, blowing a gale from the south this morning with stratus blowing through the trees. Doesn’t feel like a mid high 20s day, but guess we will see.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:25 pm

Today's max temps in Tas: Ouse 30.4, Cressy 28.8, Launceston 26.8, Hobart 23.3, St Helens 22.1, Devonport 21.5, Low Head 20.3

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:53 pm

Max of 26C here in the end. Cool breeze fighting it out with an intensely hot sun. Four hot days now, though in the south winds will tend onshore most arvos which will temper things. Up north, nasty heat right through, tending to peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Will see a few 45C pluses up in the northwest. Fortunately the heat on Friday surges through NSW so we escape what could otherwise be a nasty very fire day. Lucky for us, but going to give central and west NSW a run at the high 40s :o

Rain prospects starting to look a bit better for late Friday. Progs really jumpy, but could well see 5-20mm through much of the state. Geez we will need it by then :(

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Sean » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:49 pm

Australia will be cooking alive this week. If cloud doesn't build, records will be breaking from WA to QLD, down through NSW high country and into northern Vic. Many of these records made this decade. High temps and durations will be challenged. Good luck nature, you're gonna need it.

Sydney and Melbourne will be spared due to sea breezes it seems (thank god). So some beaut weather coming up, really getting dry though.

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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:32 am

Nice morning here with a min of 15C. Hot one almost state wide, though sea breezes will keep it bearable in the south.

Not seeing much change across the models. Fierce heat in the north with low to mid 40s for northern Vic and much of NSW. Probably see a few numbers above 46C as the week rolls on.

Thankfully wind not really an issue, and Friday’s change comes through earlier with a good indeed of tropical moisture.

Some signs of a bit of a change in the pattern with tropical moisture starting to build over WA. EC has precipitable water values into Victoria reaching 50mm on Friday, which will be the first decent moisture indeed for about a month. This doesn’t really get swept away, so we may finally start to set up for some showers and storms.

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