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VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Jake Smethurst » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:53 am

Have been down on the farm for the last few days out of Melbourne. Managed 37 degrees yesterday according to the parent's private AWS, and currently sitting on 37.2 for today so far. The heat definitely has a bite to it ... was setting up my Dad's drone yesterday and got parched very quickly! Conditions down this way are still relatively green (in-terms of grass), but unfortunately these two days of heat will brown things off and many farmers will have to begin feeding silage to the dairy cattle etc.

The trough should slowly move into southwest district this afternoon and evening, and will reach as far as Melbourne by midnight (maybe). Isolated thundery showers (mostly dry) are possible with and following the trough, though most activity is lagging significantly following the system.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by snowfall » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:17 pm

31.5c here currently, with blustery winds and a DP of 15c. Everything is drying out so quickly, with significant browning off in some nearby fields and hills. It really doesn't take much, even after a recent bout of above average rainfall.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:23 pm

36c here now, had a small fire breakout next to the Western Fwy which was luckily put out quickly, another fire has broken out near Little River.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:30 pm

Little River fire (which has evac warnings now) is on the radar as well.

Image

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:24 pm

Avalon gets the first 40c of the day. 40.2c - 01:15pm

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:40 pm

A mere 30C here and even a few spots of rain, which surprises me because I assumed anything falling today would be virga.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Sean » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:10 pm

Would be good beach weather if not for the wind. I don't like sandblasted legs..

Won't be surprised if Melbourne hits 45c this year. Just feels like that kind of year. Said that same thing back in 09 and then it did a month later.

It's the baking north. Hot weather is the norm up there at this time of year, but to be nudging records from WA to QLD... Well, it doesn't take much for that heat to siphon down here if patterns line up.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by wolfcat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:44 pm

Still, a few hours for it to go higher as well. But Melbourne hit 38.0c at 03:31pm

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:48 pm

Bouncing around 31C at home, so escaped the worst of it so far. Winds east of Melbourne are still mostly northerly or northeasterly which has kept the dew points up. Theses stinkers where it is a bit humid seem to be getting a bit more common.

Radar starting to light up a bit with high based convection.

Progs wavering a bit on rainfall for the weekend, and later next week :(

EDIT> GFS-V3 and EC still looking very good for later next week - haven't budged which is good. :D

Any rain falling out of those cells?

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by mick » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:43 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:48 pm
Bouncing around 31C at home, so escaped the worst of it so far. Winds east of Melbourne are still mostly northerly or northeasterly which has kept the dew points up. Theses stinkers where it is a bit humid seem to be getting a bit more common.

Radar starting to light up a bit with high based convection.

Progs wavering a bit on rainfall for the weekend, and later next week :(

EDIT> GFS-V3 and EC still looking very good for later next week - haven't budged which is good. :D

Any rain falling out of those cells?
I can tell you the cells popping up between yarram and orbost are just virga.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:56 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:48 pm

Any rain falling out of those cells?
Not sure about further east but yes - if it's on the radar here, it's rain - though very light in keeping with the signal. Expressed my surprise at that a few posts ago.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:20 pm

We got 0.4 mm 30mins ago - wet the ground too - for 5 mins

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:03 pm

Looks like the wind change has hit the bottom of the bay. It looks to be moving quite quickly, though progs have it stalling near Melbourne. These wind changes are notorious for being hard to predict so not confident we will see it anytime soon. The synoptics have us in a col with the trough in the easterlies lagging the trough in the westerlies.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Horts » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:34 pm

Am on the bay (Safety Beach) and it's still a hot northerly 32. Spits and spats of rain earlier but no wind change yet.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by HarleyB » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:36 pm

It's coming across from west to east by the looks. Meanwhile I can't believe the differences in forecast maximums between Melbourne and here on the weekend. 27 and 22 for Melbourne, 38 and 33 here! Love it!

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Horts » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:48 pm

Wind dropped, very slight SW now. Times to open the house up!

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Blackie » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:49 pm

It's gone from Dubai to Daintree here with the passing over a moisture laden CU cloud. Shorted lived but dusk has been settled.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:08 am

0.2mm in FC. Change appeared to come through then stepped back again. Currently 23C at 4am :roll:

Btw few early season records, with Avalon and Geelong both having the earliest so high in the season. Same for Olympic Park, but short record.

Progs spraying all over the place for the next 36 hours. Could be anywhere between 0.2 and 22mm in this period. Not often they do this at such a short range.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:49 am

Not much to report up here, a couple of warm to hot days but nothing out of the ordinary. 36c yesterday. Last year I had 7 days over 30c from 1st Nov to now, this year only 3 which has left a bit of moisture in the grass. It’s a bit of a messy set up with this loitering trough. Virga, some showers and isolated storms at best I think.

I’ve been watching Ex TC Owen off North Queensland closely. He is the joker in the pack for next week. If he comes ashore tomorrow or Monday, the subtropical ridge will force him towards the N.T and which then turns him into a Landphoon, heading back towards Qld. This will enhance the atmospheric river flowing towards Victoria by mid to late next week. If the above comes off and the upper low digs into S.A from the Southern ocean, we will be talking HP supercells and water bombing convergences zones pushing down from S.A and NSW. Until we know what happens with EX TC Owen in the next 72 hours, models will continue to be volatile IMO.

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:39 pm

Warm humid weather and no wind, I like it!!

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