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VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

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JasmineStorm
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VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:29 pm

A string of warm sunny days before a potential significant weather system arrives. There has been countless changes in the models for this set up for next week but there is becoming a stronger alignment for the existence of a stalled upper trough due to a southern hemisphere Omega Block. The trough will have a significant equatorial flowing atmospheric river present and maybe followed by a front associated with a surface low. Too early for finer details but the latest EC and GFS runs K-index represents a significant storm outbreak early next week across multiple states including Victoria. Loads of downgrades and upgrades to come :)
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StratoBendigo
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:41 pm

It's going to be a rollercoaster ride. Big downgrade already on GFS this afternoon. Who knows? Could be 5mm, could be 80mm? I'm thinking the former.

Macedonian
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Macedonian » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:59 am

Frost at home this morning and 0.4C minimum. Cold for October but a lovely morning now.

StratoBendigo
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:18 am

Yep, really nice day today. And tomorrow and Saturday before the tropical stuff hits us.

Starting to see some convergence in the forecast models for early next week. 18Z GFS has ramped things up and agrees with 12Z EC forecast of 40mm for us....

snowfall
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by snowfall » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:03 pm

Cold start here as well. Minimum 2.1c. Beautiful outside now with barely a breath of wind.

The models are looking good this morning, with rain from Monday to Thursday. Both EC and GFS show a cutoff low just to the south of Victoria, with EC giving widespread rain totals of 20+mm across large areas of the state. GFS not quite so widespread, and concentrating the biggest falls in western and northern parts of the state. No doubt it will change!

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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by stevco123 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:36 pm

It was markedly warmer this morning down here in the outer southern suburbs. I had a minimum of 7.5, and Cerberus got down to 10.0, yet the CBD was colder at 6.4.

Not too often that happens
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JasmineStorm
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:52 am

Not a cloud in the sky here, blue as the sky gets.

Interesting development for next week with the UKMet 12z run stalling the upper low near the S.A / Vic border. UKM is 2nd most accurate model in the world, just behind EC. UKM In the tropics is no.1.

In my opinion rainfall projections will now become very volatile due to the position and slow movement of the upper low. The upper low is going to call all of the shots, surface cut off low will follow what ever it does. Tough gig for the BoM this set up....

Gordon
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Gordon » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:40 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:52 am
Tough gig for the BoM this set up....
They went out on a limb and predicted 3-25mm for us yesterday :).

Yes it's one of those 'If you don't like the models, wait a day' sort of systems.

JasmineStorm
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:20 pm

Latest BoM 4 day :)
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Gordon
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Gordon » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:03 pm

The front/ low looks very slow to cross Vic, which has to be promising?

JasmineStorm
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:11 pm

Gordon wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:03 pm
The front/ low looks very slow to cross Vic, which has to be promising?
Yes, it's the old Tasman blocking high but this time we have a low pressure set up to our west, with a tropical feed ;)

Skywalker
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Skywalker » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:38 pm

I'm currently in Sydney for work & it has been pretty wet up here. Constant showers streaming through since I arrived yesterday. Completely opposite to the desert like conditions back home in Melbourne's Western suburbs.

Here's hoping I bring back some of the rain with me when I return for next week. ;)
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

StratoBendigo
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:24 pm

Rainfall totals predicted for next week seem to downgrade with each model run. I'm rather pessimistic now. Might scrape 10mm...

JasmineStorm
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:13 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:24 pm
Rainfall totals predicted for next week seem to downgrade with each model run. I'm rather pessimistic now. Might scrape 10mm...
I suppose it depends which models you like :) UKMet has got 40 to 50mm for Bendigo next week on the last 2 runs and some widespread falls across Vic. But IMO, rainfall totals at this stage are only rough mathematical guesses, especially with storms and a cut off low involved.

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Didjman
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Didjman » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:48 pm

I have noticed mounds appearing around ant holes in various places. That is something of note!

Sean
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Sean » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:39 pm

Any chance of supercells with this system? Melbourne is about due for another.. grab ye inhalers :D

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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:18 am

Sitting back waiting for the progs to settle. Latest runs look good. Widespread 20 to 50mm falls. Potential for 100mm plus where storms train. Hoping this one delivers as its soooo dry atm.

Some crazy weather elsewhere. Hurricane Michael smashed records for a storm this late, Hurricane Leslie is head for an impact in Spain, and those storms in Queensland :o

Tassiedave
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:12 pm

In the last three weeks Launceston has had just 2.8 mm of rain.

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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Wilko » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:15 pm

Still Looking pretty good for storm chasing Tuesday and there could be something Huge brewing not far beyond :o

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:19 am

Chooks still dust bathing in my so called clay...
let it down slowly..
will have to water the newish plants and veggies today, can't hold my breath for this to happen..

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