VIC - Sequence of fronts (Part 1): August 3-13 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:14 pm

Wilko wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:05 pm
Winds ramping up here on a big scale
Jasmine .. HB do you know when approximately when to expect the worst winds
Between now and 4pm winds over Melbourne @850 hPa (1,500m) will be between 90 to 130 km/h. This is the period of the most damaging gusts as they mix downward.

StratoBendigo
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:40 pm

The horizon out to our NW is looking a bit brown in colour....

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mick
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by mick » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:16 pm

Just a gentle breeze down at Seaspray, 50k or so. We get 100k all the time but the closest station is Sale and theres a hill in between..
The Barracouda Platform WS seems to have vanished from the BOM radar.

We have been having these cloud formations all day.
2 002.jpg
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Didjman
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:28 pm

Got some good shots on my fone of the gravity waves in the cirrus overhead Tulla. "Herringbone Cirrus "

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:09 pm

Looks good for a cold, wet and windy 36 hours. Bit of an upgrade on the progs for rainfall, with a solid rainband then a cold unstable showery arvo/evening tomorrow. Should see quite well organised bands of showers/storms in the cold air.

850Ts get to about -4C (perhaps a little above or a little below). Touch and go for flurries in the Dandenongs. Moisture looks ok with the cold air, but not great.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Horts » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:59 pm

Surprisingly warm and still night here. Perfect for a few Friday night beers on the deck. Gonna enjoy this while it lasts!

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:01 pm

Building nicely out west. Portland 18mm now.

Access C 06Z run just projected snow on the Dandenongs to around 500m early Sunday morning when the coldest trough comes through.

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:07 pm

Access C 06Z run just projected snow on the Dandenongs to around 500m early Sunday morning when the coldest trough comes through.
Latest access has 850Ts dipping to about -4.5C. That would typically put snow flurries down to about 400m. Moisture doesn’t look that great. Is quite westerly when the coldest air comes through, but is the odd shower showing up so not completely dry.

Totals pulling up nicely in the southwest and back in SA. One of the best looking systems this year on the radar :D

Wind picking up here as the wind change approaches. It looks to be in the middle of the Bay atm. Quite remarkable dew point gradient across it. Anticipating it will hit here with a fog bank ahead of the rain :?

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Horts » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:31 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:07 pm
Access C 06Z run just projected snow on the Dandenongs to around 500m early Sunday morning when the coldest trough comes through.
Wind picking up here as the wind change approaches. It looks to be in the middle of the Bay atm.
I'm here in Safety Beach and dead still as I type this.. still 17 outside 8-)

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Didjman
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:57 pm

The Current Doppler Radar is scary for any flights NW of the airport within 50klm of the airport. Windshear looks pretty full on!!

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:01 am

Dead Calm and dry here..
yes Didj, there is some bright red there.

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:04 am

Just started raining here. Moderate rate and almost calm. Taken a couple of hours longer to get here than I was expecting so bit worried this one is destined to under perform again :?

Systems gone missing for much of western Victoria. Bumper falls along the coast out there, but surprised to see only a mm or two for much of the Wimmera and Mallee. System flared quite dramatically when it hit eastern SA so must have been something quite subtle in the dynamics which came into phase and then equally quick disappeared. Looking at the uppers the jet seems to be lifting north which weakened the upper divergence.

Showery 24 hours after this rainband, and quite good warm air advection later tomorrow with the swly so should see a decent burst of drizzly stuff. 850Ts continue to show marginal snow potential here. They dip to about -4C which is about the cut off for snow here. Once again the stupid trend is not our friend... as a degree cooler and we’d be on for a good snow event :roll:

These westerlies look like going for another ten days. Quite spring like next week with temps on a roller coaster with the passage of multiple fronts :D

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by 93ben » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:14 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:04 am
850Ts continue to show marginal snow potential here. They dip to about -4C which is about the cut off for snow here. Once again the stupid trend is not our friend... as a degree cooler and we’d be on for a good snow event :roll:
The BOM have suggested possible snow in the Dandenongs this evening, so you may be in luck!
Australian Weather Warnings ⇦ Like my weather warning page to get the latest weather warnings from the BOM.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:23 am

Rain since 9am Fri: Cape Grim 27mm, Smithton 22mm, Strahan 20mm, Liawenee 13mm, Ross 11mm,Cressy 7.6mm, Hobart 1.2mm, Launceston 0.8mm

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Gordon » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:30 am

Been away the last week but nice to come home to another rainband - 6.5mm overnight brings us to 41mm mtd, so continuing the wet winter trend for our (very fortunate) area.

Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:45 am

Rain set in here and mounting nicely. 4mm so far. Radar looks quite good atm.
Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.
It’s been a quite remarkable season. Overall temps have been quite warm for most of OZ the last few months, but these persistent fairly dry westerlies have create almost normal temps over the Snowy Mountains and nearby areas. I had anticipated a pretty ordinary season given how dry and warm autumn had been :o Low level snow has been pretty lean with only patchy cover at Donna Buang and Lake Mt going almost bare a few time, but above about 1400m being persistent Image

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:21 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:45 am
Rain set in here and mounting nicely. 4mm so far. Radar looks quite good atm.
Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.
It’s been a quite remarkable season. Overall temps have been quite warm for most of OZ the last few months, but these persistent fairly dry westerlies have create almost normal temps over the Snowy Mountains and nearby areas. I had anticipated a pretty ordinary season given how dry and warm autumn had been :o Low level snow has been pretty lean with only patchy cover at Donna Buang and Lake Mt going almost bare a few time, but above about 1400m being persistent Image
All that colder than normal water South of Java in the Indian Ocean has been the biggest influence this winter IMO.

We've only had 1 mm so far this morning. it seems most of the moisture has already been sucked out of it. Although good to see Horsham doing OK with 8mm overnight.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Macedonian » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:45 am

Temp has dropped 2C in the last hour and we have been getting some good snow flurries. The winnd has dropped right back to nothing.
2.3C now.

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:12 am

Sun is out here. I thought we were going to get rain? Maybe some convective stuff later on?

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Re: Sequence of fronts: August 3-13

Post by Onetahuti » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:29 am

Currently a touch of sunshine trying to come through, 9.6mm so far.

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