Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

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stevco123
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by stevco123 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:22 am

Sounds like the type of event where the coldest air misses the Dandenong (again), and gets flung into Stanthorpe QLD where they get their 'once in a 100 years' snow event (which seems to happen every 2 years) :P
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

StratoBendigo
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:42 am

Thus far 16mm for this event. Perhaps just 3-5mm this afternoon and a similar amount on the weekend.

Nice to see some reasonable rains over cropping areas in the West of the State.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:46 am

Probably Stevco :)

Access R on the 18z has picked up the same trough in the southern ocean but just a little more delayed. The cut off low near Tassie is going to sling shot the polar trough with moisture through a SW flow into Melbourne on Saturday evening. If the timing is after sunset, based on the 18z run, Ferntree Gully National park might be a chance IMO. Of course we now wait for the downgrades :)

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:02 pm

BoM 4 day now on board, showing a mini ice age and SW to southern fetch on Saturday. A synoptic map ceiling fan with 4 troughs on the cut off low 10am Saturday :)
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Wilko
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Wilko » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:50 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:32 am
Latest GFS run 18z showing a significant polar vortex pulse with upper cold air breaching over the Gulf of Carpentaria. 528 thickness line launching into central Victoria with a 500 hPa polar injection from near 70 degrees south. That will be snow on the Dandenong's Saturday night if it verifies.
Hi Jasmine
Certainly looks like we are I for severe cold outbreak
Is polar vortex being driven by the weakening in Jetstream ?

JasmineStorm
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:58 pm

Wilko wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:50 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:32 am
Latest GFS run 18z showing a significant polar vortex pulse with upper cold air breaching over the Gulf of Carpentaria. 528 thickness line launching into central Victoria with a 500 hPa polar injection from near 70 degrees south. That will be snow on the Dandenong's Saturday night if it verifies.
Hi Jasmine
Certainly looks like we are I for severe cold outbreak
Is polar vortex being driven by the weakening in Jetstream ?
Hi Wilko,

In a way yes. The tropospheric polar vortex has weakened and is ballooning equatorward. This is deforming the polar jetstream which will interact with the subtropical jetstream over SE OZ on Saturday and assist development of the cut off low near Tassie. Earthnullschool is showing it nicely on the latest GFS run for Saturday ;) https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/06/1 ... 14,-40.198

Wilko
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Wilko » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:08 pm

Hi Jasmine
It looks out of kilter
I read somewhere a while ago that we can expect this type of event more frequently due to increasing temperatures a the South Pole results in a reduction in the temp contrast in the South Pole..anyway going to be frigid weekend :|

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:49 pm

Rain showers have started here. Really feeling the chill in the air now.

Macedonian
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:42 pm

Loverly day at Mt Macedon, blowing good and hard, cloud cap in place and a top temp at my place of 5.5C after a low of 1.8C. Cant wait til it gets cold on the weekend. :D
Trentham made it to 7.1C today.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by snowfall » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:17 pm

Recorded 8.8mm here this afternoon with that front, which makes a nice addition to the 7mm on Monday night. Looking forward to Saturday night. Hopefully it comes off as models suggest, and possibly our first decent cold outbreak for the season. Will be great to get some snow in the nearby area. Obviously we’re too low for snow here, but who knows there maybe a bit of sleet. I hope!

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hillybilly
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:18 pm

Heavy rain and graupel showers here now with sleet thrown in for good measure. Max of 7.8C for us and now dipped to 5.8C. Band is thickening nicely, though lot of bright banding so rainfall intensity is a bit overdone.

Gfs and CMC look very wet in southern and mountain areas, though EC is less keen. Not quite convinced about ECs scenario as it keeps the heavy falls with showers mainly offshore despite the swly then southerly fetch.

I’m unconvinced about the really low snow. GFS is struggling to put 850Ts much below -3 and EC is similar. The coldest air will probably shoot up over Western Vic headed for the central tablelands of NSW. I’d tend to give us about a 50:50 of snow showers here. Snow levels overall around 600m.

A degree cooler and I’d start to get excited ;)


EDIT> Finished on 6mm from that band. 14mm for the event now so slowly adding up. MTD nearly 40mm now.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:18 am

A very traditional cold NW flow and 29mm since Monday :)

GFS just keeps upgrading for the weekend for cold, other models still keeping their cool. On GFS, central Vic will be between -30c to -34c @ 500 hPa, -4 to -5c @850 hPa on Sunday morning. Sea surface temps around 15c on the Bays and Bass strait equals cold convection heaven

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Gordon » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:49 am

3.5mm for us overnight, so 13mm for the dates. Not spectacular, but ticking over with a few more wet days to come.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Dane » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:04 am

Just 3.0mm's in the last 24 hours MTD still only 12.7mm's Monthly average is 69mm's so still struggling rainfall wise here.
Hopefully boost that a bit over the next few days.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:31 am

Bom has snow to 500m in the Central Highlands early on Sunday.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:50 am

Frigid morning - 7degC at 9am, overcast and a NWly breeze.

Thus far 19mm for the week. Might just scrape another 5-10mm.

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:15 am

Nice looking satellite image at 10.30. Fujiwhara effect currently in progress between 2 lows.
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Wilko
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Wilko » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:33 pm

Temp 12.8c
App 5.7c
No wonder it feels so cold in that wind
Airier Inlet is 12.5c
App 3.3c
That's really cold
I can't recall such a big difference down that way

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:00 pm

Solid front inbound looks to be only and hour or two away. Thinking this one should be worth another 5-10mm here. Cold day today with a max of just 7.8C which is the current temperature. Front later tomorrow then another later Saturday.

I’m struggling a bit with the weekend. CMC and GFS have a ripper swly set up with deep cold convection. Snow levels look like dropping to somewhere near 600m. EC not overly excited, with heavy falls sticking on the coast and northeast ranges. I’m struggling to see how ECs rain in consistent with its Synoptics. This model does tend to struggle a bit with showers, but usually looks more consistent :?:

Winds really picking up here now :?

EDIT> Nasty squall line forming on the front now...

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Dane » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:03 pm

As DJ said nasty looking Squall line approaching.
Could get intersesting very soon.

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