Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

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hillybilly
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Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue May 15, 2018 6:14 am

Thread for the next long sequence of showery swly frontal systems, ahead of the massive blocked high south of WA.

None of these look overly impressive, but they will add up day after day in southern and mountain areas. Could well see locally 50mm in the usual wet spots. Some showers will spill over the divide, but struggle to make it into the far northwest and east Gippsland. Quite cool overall, though the upstream high is injecting warm air into the westerlies which will stop if getting overly cold on most days.

Have kicked off the event here with fog a drizzle and 0.4mm in the gauge :D

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue May 15, 2018 12:45 pm

Filthy weather up here with squally swly winds, thick fog and sideways drizzle. Nice weather when the log fires piled high.

Near 4mm for the day. EC had 1mm so off to a good start.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Dane » Tue May 15, 2018 1:19 pm

0.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am and another 2mm's since then.
Pretty dreary day temp is hovering around 12 to 13c

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Gordon » Tue May 15, 2018 1:54 pm

A cold, drizzly day up here; 8C & too miserable to check the rain gauge - looks like a couple of mm.

Hard to believe that yesterday was a perfect calm, sunny day with hardly a cloud to be seen. Glad I spent it outdoors and boosted the vitamin D while I had the chance :).

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue May 15, 2018 2:15 pm

5mm here now. Been a couple of thumping short lived showers - white on radar but coming down at the rate usually seen under yellow spots. Still foggy here, but radar suggests it might lift soon.
Hard to believe that yesterday was a perfect calm, sunny day with hardly a cloud to be seen. Glad I spent it outdoors and boosted the vitamin D while I had the chance
Been on tablets for years (after blood tests). Apparently deficiency is really common, and explains why many people get down during winter. Perhaps this unnatural boost is why I enjoy days like today :D

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Gordon » Tue May 15, 2018 3:13 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 2:15 pm
Been a couple of thumping short lived showers - white on radar but coming down at the rate usually seen under yellow spots.
Just had exactly that HB - more like thunderstorm rain without the thunder. A total surprise! (And I am definitely enjoying the rain, just not the lack of sun which can haunt us here some winters.)

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by snowfall » Tue May 15, 2018 6:51 pm

3mm here today and a maximum of 11c. Starting to feel more wintry.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Wed May 16, 2018 7:13 am

Inbetween day today with the high a little more assertive. Next change due late tomorrow with another burst of showers.

CMC starting to get a bit more excited for the coming weekend, while GFS just continues the pattern of light showers, while EC is slowly clearing things. Some sign that the high might start moving about Thursday next week :o

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by mick » Wed May 16, 2018 2:40 pm

High in the bight looks interesting,good rotation there on sat. be nice if it made it to the east coast as would liven tings up.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Gordon » Thu May 17, 2018 8:56 am

This run of weather is certainly dragging our May temperatures back towards or even below average, after a very warm start. A real autumn to winter flick of the switch!

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by flyfisher » Thu May 17, 2018 2:36 pm

If only the block high was a little further west - then we would be in a standing sequence of fronts like NZ. I have seen in other years block high's in the bight retrograde west until we are in a westerly stream.

It's what makes certain years better than others - when the block actually helps to produce weather, rather than sit right on top of us.

When the pattern goes mobile again, lets hope we can get some good polar blasts and some moisture infeed too.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Thu May 17, 2018 7:21 pm

Cool and showery up here with fog. Next 48 hours look quite wet. Wouldn’t surprise if we saw 10mm. Decent falls for the Otways, coastal strip and Yarra Ranges.

Meanwhile on the western side of the high Perth bakes in what should be one of its wettest months of the year. Southwest WA is going to struggle to avoid its driest autumn on record now :?

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 18, 2018 5:57 am

This swly warm air advection is starting to add up :D Lots of spots with 5-10mm overnight, and a few approaching 20mm. As is usual being on hill or piece of coast which pokes into the westerlies makes a huge difference. 0mm at Stawell versus 11m at Mt William and 0.2mm at Moorabbin versus 11mm at Ferny Creek really highlight this :o

For some reason my local area has been a little hole in the rainfall overnight with 5mm here and 3-6mm across the local amateur network but nearly 10mm at Mt Dandenong (about 10km north of here) and 11mm at the AWS just 2km east. The drizzle has been fine but heavy with gusty winds, which means it tends to pile up on the backside of hills so possible it’s largely blowing over the top of us here.

Still very thick fog :D

GFS which I find is the best prog for showers and drizzle really upping today’s the next seven days with 5-15mm for southern areas and locally 25-50mm in east central and south Gippsland through to the Otways.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 18, 2018 1:50 pm

Just cracked 100mm for the month at our local AWS :D Finally a proper wet month. Our average is about 115 mm so not quite there, but should be by Sunday arvo.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 18, 2018 9:34 pm

Hard to believe but we are rapidly approaching 25mm for the past 24 hours. Still foggy with frequent heavy showers with drizzle inbetween. Now on near 30mm for the thread.

Odd set up with these persistent swly showers with real hit miss patterns, and very strong topographic enhancement. Here’s the 7 day rainfall which shows how rainfall has been really amplified at higher elevations.

Image

Sunday’s front is really sharpening up and runs along its axis with moderate to heavy falls in parts of southern Vic. Latest GFS has falls approaching 50mm :o

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat May 19, 2018 1:08 pm

Coldest morning of the year so far - just 1 degC. Currently a cold 12c and cloudy. We've had zero rain this week. Rather dry and farmers are concerned.

Early indications of a cold front around 27th May.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Sun May 20, 2018 6:04 am

Seems I’m the only one getting weather atm :?

Fog and drizzle to start the day, and another mm. We’ve had about 90mm in the past ten days, which is really all tied to the same big upper trough which started over us and is still refusing to move on.

Looks like a wet and windy 36 hours coming up for southern areas, seaking a bit over the divide.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by tonycynic » Sun May 20, 2018 6:20 am

A drizzling 10c here, good day to spend relaxing after a Bunnings trip for a new rain gauge.

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Gordon » Sun May 20, 2018 7:43 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 6:04 am
Seems I’m the only one getting weather atm :?
Sort of true HB - or at least you're in the bullseye compared to us! Good to see the Dandenongs getting decent rain though and order being restored :). Here, the last couple of weeks have been notable for the switch to consistently cold and grey winter weather here rather than anything too impressive rain or wind-wise.

7mm for the dates, though not complaining about our mtd of 87mm. We'll certainly pass our second-wettest May total of 90mm (2000) though our wettest - 117mm in 2007 - will take a bit of beating. (22 years of records)

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Re: Sequence of fronts in swly stream: May 15-25

Post by Skywalker » Sun May 20, 2018 8:47 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 6:04 am
Seems I’m the only one getting weather atm :?
Not quite HB. ;)

I'm actually down on the island atm where it's been a typical showery winters morning. Just managed to sneak in a dry walk with the dog so at least she's happy.

Heading back to the boredom zone this afternoon. Hopefully it will be nice & wet upon my arrival to keep things nice & moist. :)
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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